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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***
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CaneGrad05
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FSU advance line was 15 after ND loss/FSU loss. With no Morris, that's at least 10 points there. I don't think you could set the line high enough because we cannot run on FSU.
Yesterday was brutal.
Yesterday was brutal.
CaneGrad05
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Minus 5 units once you throw in the 3* halftime bet on UNC. Not sure how Miami didn't lose by 20 with how we were dominated, but at same time, not sure how we didn't win either. Ugh.
ROLLTIDE4EVER
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What time lines are being released?
CaneGrad05
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Sometime this afternoon usually, but I would expect they'll hold the Miami-FSU game until status of Stephen Morris is officially announced.
CaneGrad05
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Looking like this in the NFL:
1. Dolphins -4.5
2. Jets -3
3. Lions +3.5
4. Bills +4
5. Redskins +1
1. Dolphins -4.5
2. Jets -3
3. Lions +3.5
4. Bills +4
5. Redskins +1
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ind +3.5, gb +3.5, oak +10, seattle +4, det +3.5
Thats courtesy of fade train. The train went 4-4-1 yesterday fwiw. That feels like over achieving, so im inclined to think the pics posted above hit around 60% ofcourse thats why its a gamble huh?
Thats courtesy of fade train. The train went 4-4-1 yesterday fwiw. That feels like over achieving, so im inclined to think the pics posted above hit around 60% ofcourse thats why its a gamble huh?
CaneGrad05
All-ACC
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Woah... Bills just moved to +5.5. Yikes- really like the Bills today but **** that's a big move at this time.
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By the way this season has been super ******* interesting to me. I have found that a few things have been helpful to me. I feel I owe a debt of gratitude to the board, so I will share them and maybe it will help you out.
1. It was either Bill S or BTM on grassy that said one time after I made a play in the second half where I faded the public. The comment basically said, good job fading the public. I won, and now fading the public has become a huge part of how I bet. This concept has evolved in how I think about betting so much so that this is the number 1 thing for me.
2. Unfortunately money matters. My units are small, $25 for full disclosure. My guess is the average unit here is likely $50-100. I find this to be a problem for me at the poker table, when I am winning and get a big stack I clam up. So when I said yesterday I almost let the Ville take me home second half with my remaining 13 units, it was a huuge win for me NOT to do it . . . even though I would be at plus 30 units now. It was absolutely the right play for me. This is number two because I can get into these funks when I am thinking money, not right plays. One benefit is I have discovered my number one. There are times I fade me, seriously. I tend to think I am a bit of a square, honestly, and fading the public over time is a money maker.
3. I believe a niche I am carving even if slightly is the second half play. Take the Oregon State-Byu second half. The over was 21. The score was 14-14. Before you say that was easy breezy, really? Anyways the game was tied. That was criteria one and HUUUGE. Byu does have a solid D and Oregon State was playing solid as well. My thinking was we have a competitive tied game at half. I didnt think there would be as much scoring as there was, so I would have gone to 24. But I thought that they would likely go *** for tat and if they went td td then the next td gave me a push. td td fg gets me into range for a fg to go to over time and a td wins it. That was my thinking. It was more of an auto play and all I did was look at half time stats, i was on my phone riding around town.
3B. I have the fade in mind if all else fails!
4. On pregame I have found a guy that they call skinny, and everyone fades his picks. Those are the picks I post called courtesy of the fade train. He has a few auto plays every week, so I dont fade those bc he takes his team period. The train is hitting at about 58% It is like a thermometer to me. Last week I rode the train and was at about 60% winner on those picks. I love the option with late games to either fade him or the train depending on success early in the day. Say he is clipping along at 20% winner and he has Auburn plus 14 against Bama I will then fade the train and ride wth him bc statistically speaking it is tough for people to do what Toad did earlier and go 0% for 15 picks in a row. Obviously each situation deserves its own attention, hopefully you get the jist.
4. There are quality posters here that I respect. My favorites are:
Diego- Love his reverse line movements.
Robbie- Lots of winners! Provides insight that I may over look. I like that he finds games off the beaten path!
Grad- Seems very detailed, and I am not. I like that he looks at what feel like more stream lined games.
Japan- Has been flying high this year. I like the dialogue I get to read with Robbie, Grad, and Japan.
MBecks- I havent seen a pick this year, but he could come on today and Id likely follow!
Larry- He likes who he likes and rides with Dana!
Swerski- Havent seen much of him lately, but as the next in line to the godfather, ya got to love him.
BTM- Hasnt been around as much, but got**** he is the godfather.
1. It was either Bill S or BTM on grassy that said one time after I made a play in the second half where I faded the public. The comment basically said, good job fading the public. I won, and now fading the public has become a huge part of how I bet. This concept has evolved in how I think about betting so much so that this is the number 1 thing for me.
2. Unfortunately money matters. My units are small, $25 for full disclosure. My guess is the average unit here is likely $50-100. I find this to be a problem for me at the poker table, when I am winning and get a big stack I clam up. So when I said yesterday I almost let the Ville take me home second half with my remaining 13 units, it was a huuge win for me NOT to do it . . . even though I would be at plus 30 units now. It was absolutely the right play for me. This is number two because I can get into these funks when I am thinking money, not right plays. One benefit is I have discovered my number one. There are times I fade me, seriously. I tend to think I am a bit of a square, honestly, and fading the public over time is a money maker.
3. I believe a niche I am carving even if slightly is the second half play. Take the Oregon State-Byu second half. The over was 21. The score was 14-14. Before you say that was easy breezy, really? Anyways the game was tied. That was criteria one and HUUUGE. Byu does have a solid D and Oregon State was playing solid as well. My thinking was we have a competitive tied game at half. I didnt think there would be as much scoring as there was, so I would have gone to 24. But I thought that they would likely go *** for tat and if they went td td then the next td gave me a push. td td fg gets me into range for a fg to go to over time and a td wins it. That was my thinking. It was more of an auto play and all I did was look at half time stats, i was on my phone riding around town.
3B. I have the fade in mind if all else fails!
4. On pregame I have found a guy that they call skinny, and everyone fades his picks. Those are the picks I post called courtesy of the fade train. He has a few auto plays every week, so I dont fade those bc he takes his team period. The train is hitting at about 58% It is like a thermometer to me. Last week I rode the train and was at about 60% winner on those picks. I love the option with late games to either fade him or the train depending on success early in the day. Say he is clipping along at 20% winner and he has Auburn plus 14 against Bama I will then fade the train and ride wth him bc statistically speaking it is tough for people to do what Toad did earlier and go 0% for 15 picks in a row. Obviously each situation deserves its own attention, hopefully you get the jist.
4. There are quality posters here that I respect. My favorites are:
Diego- Love his reverse line movements.
Robbie- Lots of winners! Provides insight that I may over look. I like that he finds games off the beaten path!
Grad- Seems very detailed, and I am not. I like that he looks at what feel like more stream lined games.
Japan- Has been flying high this year. I like the dialogue I get to read with Robbie, Grad, and Japan.
MBecks- I havent seen a pick this year, but he could come on today and Id likely follow!
Larry- He likes who he likes and rides with Dana!
Swerski- Havent seen much of him lately, but as the next in line to the godfather, ya got to love him.
BTM- Hasnt been around as much, but got**** he is the godfather.
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Up 19 units
Indy +3.5
GB +3.5
Oak +10
Seattle +3.5
Detroit +3.5
All plays 1 unit.
Decided to get on fade train today. Its interesting bc i would have taken Oakland and points today. I hate that i took all dogs, but my thinking is ride the train or not. Being selective on a fade train doesnt seem to make most sense if im committed to fading the whole year.
Indy +3.5
GB +3.5
Oak +10
Seattle +3.5
Detroit +3.5
All plays 1 unit.
Decided to get on fade train today. Its interesting bc i would have taken Oakland and points today. I hate that i took all dogs, but my thinking is ride the train or not. Being selective on a fade train doesnt seem to make most sense if im committed to fading the whole year.
just lurking and waiting IMUR. thanks for the shout out though.
I should have posted the Sooners last week. Loved em vs Tech.. had em again yesterday, but against Tech was my biggest play thus far.
I was out and didn't have a second to post it.
good luck today.
I should have posted the Sooners last week. Loved em vs Tech.. had em again yesterday, but against Tech was my biggest play thus far.
I was out and didn't have a second to post it.
good luck today.
ROLLTIDE4EVER
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True, but they are playing the best team in the league. I have them with the points though!
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ROLLTIDE4EVER
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The lines are coming in.....NOW NOW NOW
ROLLTIDE4EVER
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For their Thursday night tilt at Arizona St., the Oregon Ducks open as a 12 pt favorite
The Auburn Tigers ARE AN 8 (EIGHT) POINT UNDERDOG AT Vanderbilt (!!!!)
Notre Dame is a 14 pt favorite over BYU
Alabama is an 18 point favorite for their trip to Knoxville for the 3rd Saturday in October
Michigan St. opens as a 10.5 pt underdog when they travel to Ann Arbor for their rivalry game with Michigan
After destroying the #5 team in the country, Texas Tech opens as a 3 pt underdog at TCU
Georgia is a 27 pt favorite at Kentucky
LSU travels to TAMU as a 3 pt favorite
Miss. St. is a 19 pt favorite over Middle Tenn. St.
Florida is a 3.5 pt favorite over the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks
The Auburn Tigers ARE AN 8 (EIGHT) POINT UNDERDOG AT Vanderbilt (!!!!)
Notre Dame is a 14 pt favorite over BYU
Alabama is an 18 point favorite for their trip to Knoxville for the 3rd Saturday in October
Michigan St. opens as a 10.5 pt underdog when they travel to Ann Arbor for their rivalry game with Michigan
After destroying the #5 team in the country, Texas Tech opens as a 3 pt underdog at TCU
Georgia is a 27 pt favorite at Kentucky
LSU travels to TAMU as a 3 pt favorite
Miss. St. is a 19 pt favorite over Middle Tenn. St.
Florida is a 3.5 pt favorite over the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks
Last edited:
gordonsolie
Junior
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FSU -17 1/2 at Miami
I can't see FSU not moving the ball up and down the field. 40+ points for them.
Without Morris, we aren't scoring more than 17.
I think this is easy money. Take FSU and give the 17 1/2
I can't see FSU not moving the ball up and down the field. 40+ points for them.
Without Morris, we aren't scoring more than 17.
I think this is easy money. Take FSU and give the 17 1/2