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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***

it means that 84% of the bets are on Miss St, which in theory means that the # Vegas gave us is wrong and they would make Miss St. more than a 10.5 point favorite. The fact that the line hasn't moved, or moved in the opposite direction means that the 16% that are on Kentucky are spending as much $$ or more $$ than the 84% who are on Miss St.

This would indicate that big betters are on Kentucky. Typically, Joe Public is making 25 or 100 dollar bets on the games, while people who do this for a living are dropping much larger sums.

More bets are coming in on Miss St but more $$ is coming in on Kentucky
 
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Crafton, as a rule, ONLY sharps will move lines. View sports books as the best, most well informed gambler there is. They post spreads and gamble with the public.

When a sharp or two they respect hits the game, they'll move the line accordingly because that, to them, is info that maybe they should make an adjustment.

When you look at public sites posting what % is on what team, this is 99.9% square action because the info is coming from square sites. So when you see lines move against the high %, you know for certain that the sharps favor that team.

Another misconception is that the sharps always win. They don't, but they will about 58% of the time. In other words, don't chase line movements unless you have a feel for the game because its not a promised winner. Sure you like to be on the sharp side of games but it isn't a death sentence if you disagree.

Obviously all of this is thrown out the window when looking at games like the Super Bowl, etc.

Any clearer?
 
OK,

Bad move betting with your heart, but I did it.

I put 110 on Canes +14 and put 100 on the moneyline (+400)
 
Utah +13 2*
Northwestern +4 2*
NIU/BSU O68 2*
LSU -2.5 2*
Purdue/Michigan O57
Purdue +3
Oregon State -14
Georgia +3 4*
Miami (OH) +21
West Virginia +7
SDSU -18.5
NC State +14
Nebraska +5
Oregon O65

Will buy some back on Georgia. Ohio -14 will be a gametime decision. I'll probably hit the WVU over because Japan has been so on lately.

In soccer I took Swansea -111, Everton +100, West Brom -117, and a Man City/Chelsea/Tottenham parlay that pays +125.
 
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ruh roh 61% of bets on Miami and line goes up from 11.5 to 14

really have a bad feeling about this game
 
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Cool, thanks guys. I was thinking the 84% was total money, and not just the amount of bets. That really tied it together.
 
Courtesy of fade train. neb +3, south car -1.5, tex a&m -13.5, nc st +16, vandy +7, texas under 74, wv +7, ark +7.5, purdue +3, notre dame -14
 
neb +3, south car -1.5, tex a&m -13.5, nc st +16, vandy +7, wv +7, purdue +3, notre dame -14

Plus 9 units to start day. All bets above are 1 unit plays.
 
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