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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***

Wasn't around, only play I had tonight was the O in ECU/UCF. Didn't play anything else tonight.
 
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Was hoping line would go to 27.5 but it didn't so I laid off. Like over, but didn't feel like value was there at 28.
 
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/7 1:00 ET Atlanta -3 At Washington 50
10/7 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -3.5 Philadelphia 44.5
10/7 1:00 ET Green Bay -7 At Indianapolis 48
10/7 1:00 ET At NY Giants -10 Cleveland 43.5
10/7 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -4.5 Miami 44.5
10/7 1:00 ET Baltimore -5 At Kansas City 45.5

give me 2 locks
 
Didn't post it in here so won't count but I crushed ArkSt and hit a 4teamer degenerate style as a bonus. Bad news is looks like all totals went wrong way on me
 
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Kevin Brown said:
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/7 1:00 ET Atlanta -3 At Washington 50
10/7 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -3.5 Philadelphia 44.5
10/7 1:00 ET Green Bay -7 At Indianapolis 48
10/7 1:00 ET At NY Giants -10 Cleveland 43.5
10/7 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -4.5 Miami 44.5
10/7 1:00 ET Baltimore -5 At Kansas City 45.5

give me 2 locks
Click to expand...

Atl
GB
 
That was quite the back door last night.

A running into the kicker on USC gave Utah a 4th and 1 to convert instead of punting, and their backup QB made a miracle throw on 4th and 10 with time winding down to get to the 2.

My luck this year had been on point. I guess it makes up for last year.
 
hit on a small over with ECU/UCF but won't count it as I didn't post.

This week I'm riding with:
WVU/Texas O73.5 2 units
BC/Army O57.5

and against my better judgment as I never bet on my team, Miami +14. I can't see how NDs offense can win by 14 points. I don't think Miami will win outright but we have enough weapons to keep it close

And I rarely post parlays but I figured I'll throw this one on because I really like it and I've done really well on totals this year

.4 unit pays 70 units
BC/Army O56.5
NIll/Ball St O67
A+M/Ole Miss O65.5
SD St -21.5
Louisiana Tech -27
Rice/Memphis O62
WVU/Texas O73.5
VT +5.5

21-12-1 on posted picks this season
 
When y'all talk about the money being bet on one team (like when you say the line is moving one way but the public is 90% on one team and stuff) ... where do you see that at?
 
Thanks Japan.

So, if I've got it right, Miss State opened -10.5. The line is currently at -10. But 84% of the public is on Miss State. Can Vegas really like Kentucky that much? Or is there another explanation that I'm missing?
 
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Crafton said:
Thanks Japan.

So, if I've got it right, Miss State opened -10.5. The line is currently at -10. But 84% of the public is on Miss State. Can Vegas really like Kentucky that much? Or is there another explanation that I'm missing?
Click to expand...

while the public likes Miss St, bets for very large amounts of $$ are coming in on Kentucky, aka people who do this for a living
 
A little confused. I get why you are saying the line goes the opposite way in general, but not getting the nuances of it I don't think. Do the bets of the "sharps" not count in those percentages? Does that not count in the 16% bet on KY?

Seems like Vegas would want it to be closer to 50/50 ... unless they also liked KY.

Or is the factor that the sharps hit more than the public so they don't want to give them anymore of a favorable line than they have to?
 
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