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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***

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Narrowly avoided disaster yesterday with a miracle TCU cover, a NIU over that hits by .5, and Oregon hitting the first half spread by .5. Was up 2* yesterday...

Went 0-3 in the NFL today.
 
The college slate next weekend looks pretty bad, but I have 9 plays locked in:

Texas +1 for 2*
Texas -2 for 1*
BYU -28 for 2*
Louisiana Tech -3 for 2*
Louisville -10.5 for 2*
Oregon -29 for 1*
Northwestern -13.5 for 1*
Florida State -15 for 1*
Arizona -2.5 for 1*

The only other game I was eyeing was Washington +7. Waiting for it to go up though.

I really like Texas this weekend. I know it is at OK State, but Texas' defense should fair much much better than Okie State's.

Southern Miss might not win a game this year. Louisville should bounce back after a timid performance last week. Hawaii is in the same boat...

I'll probably buy back on Oregon but wanted to hit it at the best number. They'll hit another first half spread with ease in this one, though. Wazzu couldn't stop Colorado!

I really like Arizona in a bounce back game. That scoreline against Oregon wasn't indicative at all of how the game was played (it was the only game I watched). Will probably put another unit on that.
 
CaneGrad05 said:
imurcane said:
Texans -1.5 4 units.
Click to expand...

imurcane said:
Denver pic em second half 4 units.
Click to expand...

I loved Texas, but 4 units? And why 4 units on Denver second half?
Click to expand...

Texans for the game, my brother told me he loved the Texans -1.5. He is a solid handicapper, but cant resist that online blackjack lol. I decided to go 4 units since he loved the game as much as he did. With regards to second half there were a few factors. One, the money was flowing on Texans in second half, and fading second half really does seem profitable. Secondly, I thought Broncos might have a solid second half like Monday. Thirdly, I also thought that there was a reasonable shot that Texans would have game wrapped up and Broncos get a garbo cover for second half. Lastly, I was a little worried that Manning would come back on Texans as he had before. I also had a 21-11 lead, which was 8 pts for me to cover and middle. Broncos could have 1-8 more than Texans second half and i win two bets.
 
I've only really started looking through early games, but I actually like quite a few. For me, when you get these non-descript games that nobody really wants to watch, you can find some good value.

I like Penn State, Minnesota, Louisiana Tech, Northwestern, Missouri, TAMU, Duke, Miami Ohio, Nevada, Marshall, and UNC.
 
I don't post picks here often (mainly because I usually don't feel strongly about any pick to recommend it to somebody else) but I really like where Arizona sits this weekend.
 
Im done for the eve, but think 24.5 over is correct play in second half. **** I might throw a unit down . . . lol jk Ill be disciplined.
 
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imurcane said:
CaneGrad05 said:
imurcane said:
Texans -1.5 4 units.
Click to expand...

imurcane said:
Denver pic em second half 4 units.
Click to expand...

I loved Texas, but 4 units? And why 4 units on Denver second half?
Click to expand...

Texans for the game, my brother told me he loved the Texans -1.5. He is a solid handicapper, but cant resist that online blackjack lol. I decided to go 4 units since he loved the game as much as he did. With regards to second half there were a few factors. One, the money was flowing on Texans in second half, and fading second half really does seem profitable. Secondly, I thought Broncos might have a solid second half like Monday. Thirdly, I also thought that there was a reasonable shot that Texans would have game wrapped up and Broncos get a garbo cover for second half. Lastly, I was a little worried that Manning would come back on Texans as he had before. I also had a 21-11 lead, which was 8 pts for me to cover and middle. Broncos could have 1-8 more than Texans second half and i win two bets.
Click to expand...

It obviously worked out for you, but when you have 4 units of profit locked in at halftime that you feel pretty comfortable about, you're risking walking away with 0 if you lose the 2H bet. Just going forward, perhaps going with a smaller play on the 2H to where you at least get something there with the bad luck 2H.
 
I think we need to look at some teams that had big wins Saturday and circle them for let downs. Miami the last decade lays an egg. Rutgers got a huge win. Noles got a huge win. Kansas St and Notre Dame had big wins.

Anyone have look ahead games this week?
 
CaneGrad05 said:
imurcane said:
CaneGrad05 said:
imurcane said:
Texans -1.5 4 units.
Click to expand...

imurcane said:
Denver pic em second half 4 units.
Click to expand...

I loved Texas, but 4 units? And why 4 units on Denver second half?
Click to expand...



Texans for the game, my brother told me he loved the Texans -1.5. He is a solid handicapper, but cant resist that online blackjack lol. I decided to go 4 units since he loved the game as much as he did. With regards to second half there were a few factors. One, the money was flowing on Texans in second half, and fading second half really does seem profitable. Secondly, I thought Broncos might have a solid second half like Monday. Thirdly, I also thought that there was a reasonable shot that Texans would have game wrapped up and Broncos get a garbo cover for second half. Lastly, I was a little worried that Manning would come back on Texans as he had before. I also had a 21-11 lead, which was 8 pts for me to cover and middle. Broncos could have 1-8 more than Texans second half and i win two bets.
Click to expand...

It obviously worked out for you, but when you have 4 units of profit locked in at halftime that you feel pretty comfortable about, you're risking walking away with 0 if you lose the 2H bet. Just going forward, perhaps going with a smaller play on the 2H to where you at least get something there with the bad luck 2H.
Click to expand...

Here is what I was thinking, if i had done my normal 1 unit bet it was an auto play just like it happened. But I think the one thing that was different is i normally do this when i had say a first half texans and game texans and now this third bet guarantees me 2/3 with a 3/3 possibility.
 
CaneinMass said:
I don't post picks here often (mainly because I usually don't feel strongly about any pick to recommend it to somebody else) but I really like where Arizona sits this weekend.
Click to expand...

I love this site. There are a few guys like canegrad, japan, robbie, diego, larry, bill, and boo who are pretty solid most of the time. toad has historically been solid but has been on a dry run recently. i post what i do, but i dont worry about others following because it is gambling. id say post away. maybe ur insight will help a blindspot of another poster.
 
Love Arizona.

That was the Oregon defense I was expecting all year, and I'd say the bigger surprise for me was how good Arizona's defense played.
 
Despite that bull****, I at least covered. Finished up 5 units.

Would appreciate some FMAs over the next few weeks so I can build this small bankroll into enough for a 1st gun fund.
 
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Just poured 4 units into FSU -16. Some risk in them having a let down after the Clemson game, but they're just too talented to not win this one by a pretty decent margin. USF is terrible this year. Holtz is a true corch.
 
I'm going to lock into

FSU -16
Clemson -9.5
Ball St +1 (this might be a large play)
Louisiana Tech -3 (again, easy money??)

Totals I like, but will depend on #s:
Baylor/WVU O
Houston/Rice O
NCSt/Miami O
 
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