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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***

Crafton said:
Ok, I do a underdogs pick em contest on another board. Basically the underdog picked has to win outright, then you get the amount of points they were dogs by.

So, I have narrowed it down to this list as what I'm looking at. So tell me which ONE of these teams do you think can win outright. Also, the odds are whatever the USA Today has on Mondays so they are skewed in places. I've put them in a very rough order of how I was looking at them.

Ball St +10.5 So Fla
UTEP +15 at Wisky
K State +13.5 at OU
Clemson +13.5 at fsu
Oregon State +11 at UCLA
Miami +14 at Ga Tech
Central Michigan +17 at Iowa

Basically, I think there are quite a few double digit dogs that have at least a shot, and can't decide on one. I lean towards those top 2 cause it's two teams that have struggled enough they shouldn't be laying a bunch of points and playing teams that have looked ok.
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Don't like: UTEP, Central Michigan, Oregon State

Like: Clemson, Miami, K-State and Ball St. I like Ball St but the public is all over it
 
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Clemson or Kansas State would be my pick. Don't really love any of those choices. Actually, Oregon State could be a good one.
 
Took WVU -27...need to take a better look at the rest of these lines before putting any money down.
 
japancane said:
CaneGrad05 said:
Tone-- looking back through, I'd take Michigan on yesterday's line of 7 points or so.
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missed it at 7. My book has it at 5 now. No play
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I think they win straight up, so I'll just wait for it to either come back around some or take them on the ML come Saturday. But, for Crafton's purposes- since he gets to use Monday's line, that should be 7 points for him.
 
Yeah, my purposes aren't the same as betting it. I usually just try to find the double digit dog I think has a chance. With that game it's kind of more important to pick a few winners that get you a lot of points instead of a bunch of winners that only get you a few points each time. Like you could have 5 winners that are only 5 point dogs and get 25 points ... and it's worse than picking only 2 right but at 13 point dogs which gets you 26.

I had Pitt last week and got 12 for it. I think the leader is at 27 or something (I missed the first couple of weeks, got in late). Another double digit winner and I'm probably right in there, so I was looking for that.

Everyone likes Michigan that much huh? Didn't Notre Dame just butt rape Michigan State? And hasn't Michigan struggled a little with lesser opponents even after the Bama raping? Just asking. I hadn't even thought about that game previously.

I was thinking Ball St is my favorite currently. Aren't they at home? Skip Holtz is a corch. SFs QB is erratic. I'll have to look into this Michigan thing some more though.
 
Notre Dame is 3-0 for the first time in a decade. They just went into MSU and kicked butt. That's an emotional win for them. Michigan got their butt beat by the best team in the country. They've had two weeks to lick their wounds and get back to fundamentals. They've done what they always do- rely on Denard Robinson. Notre Dame's defense, especially their pass defense, is nothing special. Spartans QB sucks. Purdue more effective through the air. The dual threat ability of Robinson should lead to some big plays. Perhaps there is a sneaky bias in there, but I just like Michigan in this game.

As far as Ball State, I think you'll see that most of us are playing that game this week. But in terms of your contest, it worries me that the public is backing Ball State but the line isn't moving. That being said, the bet volume does not appear to be too high at this point. That is something I would definitely pay attention to you in your contest. For example, to go back to ND-Michigan, that game is one of the more popular bets in the country, the public is mainly on ND at a 2:1 rate, and the line went from 7 points to 5 points, meaning some serious sharp money is on Michigan. Now, they can lose the game by 5 and the sharps will be happy and you be a loser, but it's still a good factor to take into account.
 
On Vanderbilt +16

UGA will still be without their 2 best defensive starters and their defense has been suspect lately. I don't know if its the DC playing more vanilla against easier opponents or what.
 
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False said:
On Vanderbilt +16

UGA will still be without their 2 best defensive starters and their defense has been suspect lately. I don't know if its the DC playing more vanilla against easier opponents or what.
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Vanderbilt's QB woes concern me, but if that number keeps going up like it has, may be worth a look. UGA seems to have the Larry Coker approach of letting their foot off the gas when the game is in their favor.
 
Mid-week Update.

1. WVU -28 vs. Maryland-- Down to -27, and even -26.5 in some spots despite decent volume on WVU. Will wait to see the bottom, but playing WVU here.
2. UTEP +16 @ Wisconsin-- Up to 17.5. If it keep rising, will have to play until Wisconsin shows it's capable of beating anyone soundly
3. TCU -17 vs. UVA-- Now TCU -17.5. I worry because I dont see a Mike London team playing that poorly two weeks in a row.
4. Army +7.5 @ Wake Forest-- Down to +7 despite 62% on Wake Forest. This is going to be a play for me at +7 while I still can.
5. UConn -1.5 @ Western Michigan--Line not moving, small volume, but it's all on UConn (86%). I'm already locked in here.
6. Oregon State +11.5 @ UCLA--Big time movement on Oregon State, down to +8. Glad I locked this one in early.
7. South Carolina -10 vs Missouri--Hasn't moved. The QBs are the news here, but I think, like UGA, South Carolina's line and RBs are the difference here.
8. Washington State -18 vs. Colorado-- Up to -19 and even 19.5 in some spots. I'll lock in at -19 with consideration at buying back if gets to 21.5 (heading there)
9. Ball State +10.5-- Public favorite underdog = recipe for disaster, but line down to +10. Locked in at +10.5
10. LSU -18.5--- Winter is coming for Auburn. Moved to Auburn +20.5 now. Hard to see Auburn keeping this one close, but... I'm locked in here at 18.5
11. Michigan +7 --- Major RLM here with line going down to +5.5 despite volume/% on ND. Had to lock in at +6.5, although still think they win SU
12. Clemson +14 -- Seems to be a resistance to letting this get any more than 14, but if I see 14.5 pop up again, I'm taking it.
13. San Jose State +3 --- 69% on San Jose State, but it's moved to +3.5;Can't see this being a play now with that going on
14. Oregon -23.5 --- 73% are on Arizona. Line's not moving. I love it. Will be playing Oregon 1H and game total
15. Hawaii +10 -- Someone agreed with me. Or 80% agreed with me rather. Line's down to 8. Won't play it, just found it interesting.

Currently locked in:

1. Arkansas -5
2. UConn -1.5
3. Army +7
4. Oregon State +11.5
5. Ball State +10.5
6. LSU -18.5
7. Michigan +6.5

Other Games Looking At Now:

1. Memphis +23.5-- just don't think Duke should be favored by 4 scores over anyone really, and I like Duke
2. Clemson/FSU u57-- both are big play offenses, but I don't like either matchup for scoring
3. WVU/Maryland o62 -- slight worry about letdown for WVU, but they could get easily get 50 themselves
4. Kansas/NIU o52 -- TCU should have scored 35 last week but shot themselves in the foot. NIU is terrible defensively. I like this one to sail over
5. Miami +15 -- If this keeps rising, will be hard to pass on the Canes. Over may be a better bet at 61.
6. Kansas State +14 -- Just not sure they have enough big play ability or the cajones to hang in here against OU's best game this year thus far
7. LA Tech/Illinois o61.5 -- LA Tech will give up points. So will Illinois. Seems too easy. Sometimes just need to trust that.
8/9. FAU +49, U57.5 -- See this as a minor letdown game for Bama. A 45-7 final or something of that nature.
 
Just went back and looked at your stuff Japan and Robbie. Looks like we're all in this one together this week.

Your thoughts Larry? You gonna step out of the ladies room at all this week?
 
CaneGrad05 said:
Just went back and looked at your stuff Japan and Robbie. Looks like we're all in this one together this week.

Your thoughts Larry? You gonna step out of the ladies room at all this week?
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lets get it.

Just have played totals as of now

N Illinois/Kansas O52 2 units
Marshall/Rice O70 1 unit (less high on this game)
Louisiana Tech/Illinois O62.5

All of the lines I like are moving in the direction I like so I might wait.

I'm also thinking about making a very small parlay on some dogs. Miami, Ball State, Michigan and maybe K-State
 
False said:
On Vanderbilt +16

UGA will still be without their 2 best defensive starters and their defense has been suspect lately. I don't know if its the DC playing more vanilla against easier opponents or what.
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I thought Jarvi Jones was starting this week?
 
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Guess the humor didn't come out. I do think I may do a little degen over action or just hold off lol.
 
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