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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***

imurcane said:
Trying to make sense of Broncos Falcons game tonight. I think Bronco offense against Atlanta defense is better than Atlanta o against Bronco d. So its irrelevant imo to say Falcons have better o than Broncos. Question is, will it be a FG fest or TD fest?
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I think you're falling into the trap of betting every game that you want to watch or will watch on television. If you don't have a feel and nothing jumps out to you, just let it go and spend your money on games you have a read on.
 
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CaneGrad05 said:
imurcane said:
Trying to make sense of Broncos Falcons game tonight. I think Bronco offense against Atlanta defense is better than Atlanta o against Bronco d. So its irrelevant imo to say Falcons have better o than Broncos. Question is, will it be a FG fest or TD fest?
Click to expand...

I think you're falling into the trap of betting every game that you want to watch or will watch on television. If you don't have a feel and nothing jumps out to you, just let it go and spend your money on games you have a read on.
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this. I fell into that trap last year and had a terrible season. The plays I like, I jump on then watch lines for other action. No feel= no play
 
japancane said:
heythisisrobbie said:
By the way, in my system that went 10-2 last year, UConn is a play.
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what's your system?
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Two years ago I spent about 150 hours in the offseason crunching numbers and finding trends. When I found trends I liked I weeded out the poor ones by testing them against 2009 numbers.

It's now a hands off spreadsheet that takes me about 45 minutes every Sunday to put in new stats from cfbstats.com.

I didn't trust it last year, but I have three systems, and combined they hit at 70% last year for the third straight year.

A lot of work for ~ 30 plays a week. It's really based on nothing but stats and spread ranges.

The wife is 7 months pregnant. I'm afraid it might be the first thing to go...
 
I got some pretty great spreads this week. Have a stupid wedding on Saturday so won't be able to pay attention:

BYU +7
UL Monroe +8 2*
LSU -17 2*
Ball State +11 2*
Louisville -12.5 2*
Arkansas -3 3*
Arkansas -3.5 2*
Western Ky -2.5
UConn -1 (system play)
Utah +7
TCU -16.5 2*
West Virginia -28 2*
Duke -21
North Carolina -15
Miami (OH) -26.5 2*
Georgia Texh -13.5

I don't like Miami(OH) that much really. It was a spur of the moment mistake and I will look to buy back.

Will be adding the Oregon first half spread, any Overs Japan talks me into, and any potential FMA's.
 
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heythisisrobbie said:
I got some pretty great spreads this week. Have a stupid wedding on Saturday so won't be able to pay attention:

BYU +7
UL Monroe +8 2*
LSU -17 2*
Ball State +11 2*
Louisville -12.5 2*
Arkansas -3 3*
Arkansas -3.5 2*
Western Ky -2.5
UConn -1 (system play)
Utah +7
TCU -16.5 2*
West Virginia -28 2*
Duke -21
North Carolina -15
Miami (OH) -26.5 2*
Georgia Texh -13.5

I don't like Miami(OH) that much really. It was a spur of the moment mistake and I will look to buy back.

Will be adding the Oregon first half spread, any Overs Japan talks me into, and any potential FMA's.
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only ones I'm high at this point is Marshall/Rice and Oregon and Arizona but will depend on the #s
 
Lots of interesting lines this week. My early gut feelings:

Numbers:
Temple/Penn St U43- PSU under is an autoplay but this number is pretty low. May steer clear this week
Marshall/Rice O70- # is a little high for my liking. Might be a small play
Kansas/N Illinois O52.5- fave # this week; N Illinois just gave up 41 to Army, Kansas plain stinks
FAU/Bama U57- Bama puts up 40-45 but no way FAU puts up 10+

Lines:
WVU -27.5- they'll win by ruthlessness
Washington St -19- I'm fading Colorado the rest of the season
Ball ST +10.5- USF sucks and Ball St isn't bad. Good upset candidate
N Texas 0.0- they've played very good competition this year, are at home and Troy is a little overrated this season
K-State +13.5- They'll keep it close against a very overrated OU team. Will run the ball to bleed the clock
Clemson +14- FSU is getting too much love for beating 3 brutal teams. Clemson loses but keeps it close
 
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I took Ball St right when it opened but interestingly enough it seems like the public dog this week. Don't feel as good about it now.

Also jumped on Louisville -12.5. Feels like a square play but I don't see FIU sneaking up on them after what happened last year and I assume a lot of their Miami kids are going to be amped to come back home. Can't see them winning by less than 14.
 
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Ok, I do a underdogs pick em contest on another board. Basically the underdog picked has to win outright, then you get the amount of points they were dogs by.

So, I have narrowed it down to this list as what I'm looking at. So tell me which ONE of these teams do you think can win outright. Also, the odds are whatever the USA Today has on Mondays so they are skewed in places. I've put them in a very rough order of how I was looking at them.

Ball St +10.5 So Fla
UTEP +15 at Wisky
K State +13.5 at OU
Clemson +13.5 at fsu
Oregon State +11 at UCLA
Miami +14 at Ga Tech
Central Michigan +17 at Iowa

Basically, I think there are quite a few double digit dogs that have at least a shot, and can't decide on one. I lean towards those top 2 cause it's two teams that have struggled enough they shouldn't be laying a bunch of points and playing teams that have looked ok.
 
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