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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***

CaptJackSparrow said:
CaneGrad05 said:
I'm not going to tell you how to manage your money and bankroll, but 10% on your first bet, and another 5% on your 2nd bet is... well not exactly recommended.
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Please do list your recommendations its that what the form is for?
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Well, a good rule of thumb is that your average bet should be 1-2% of your bankroll. By putting 10% of your bankroll on one bet, you're essentially declaring it a FMA, and to do that on a teaser is just not recommended. Another rule of thumb is that teasers are for suckers. If you're going to tease, the idea should be to get through key numbers, such as 3 or 7 or 10, as opposed to just making sure you get one team to win, etc..
 
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Trying to narrow the card for Saturday. I had locked into some plays early in the week that I'm likely betting out of but here's what is on the table for tomorrow. If the numbers below are different than what you see now, it's because I played it early in the week.

LOCKED IN
1. FSU -24: 2 units

CONSIDERATIONS:
2. VT/Pittsburgh u45
3. Pittsburgh +10.5
4. Ohio State -16.5
5. Ohio State -9.5 (1H)
6. Arkansas State/Nebraska o67
7. ULL/OK State o73
8. Auburn -16.5
9. TAMU/SMU o60.5
10. UVA +10.5
11. Alabama/Arkansas u54
12. Rice/LT o66
13. Troy +16.5
14. USC -9
15. USC/Stanford o56.5
16. Wisconsin -13.5
17. Michigan State -4.5
18. Texas -10
19. Houston +17
20. Houston/UCLA u76
 
I don't see much benefit in teasing college games.

My buddy likes doing two team teasers with 5 to 8 points favorites in the NFL and he has had a lot of success doing it. But I feel like he would have made as much money making the same plays straight up.
 
For the reverse line movement crowd:

1. Boston College +3.5 (78% on Northwestern; down from +4)
2. Pitt +10 (88% on VT; down from +10.5)
3. Ole Miss +10 (74% on Texas; down from +12)
4. Utah +3 (80% on BYU; down from +3.5)
5. UNC +3 (79% on Louisville; down from +3.5)
6. UVA +10 (65% on GT; down from +11)
7. Alabama/Arkansas o54 (63% on the under, up from 52)
8. Kansas +20.5 (78% on TCU, down from +22)
9. Houston +17 (82% on UCLA, down from +18)
10. North Texas +27.5 (84% on KState, down from +28.5)
 
CaneGrad05 said:
Larry said:
Any of ya'll degenerate mooks have a play on tonight's game.

I played Wazzou Week 1 and face planted that one. I don't want to get into a "Purdue"-like funk with them like I did with the 'Due last year in the first few weeks, so, I am thinking I should avoid...

For some reason, the "wacky Friday Night" theme screams at me when I see UNLV only +8.
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This game screams "If I was going to play, I should have played it earlier in the week, and now it's too late."

Save your money for Saturday.
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And that being said, I'll probably wait until just before kickoff and throw something on the under. The public expectation will be Leach and "points" with of course that being anything but the case thus far. While Eastern Washington is probably better than UNLV, Wazzou couldnt move the ball at all last week in the 2H. And now the QB is in doubt? I have no idea who wins but I don't see how either team scores enough.

/dead over
 
Unlv is terrible this year. How is the fluck will this game get any where near 55 without 4 OTs? I suppose I expect Wsu to be a bit better on offense, but their an is out right? Case where back up goes ape **** or throws 3 pic 6s? If I'm saying that's way too many points this is a.lock to go under, that seems to be a recipe for over ya sucker. Anyone know what I mean? Vegas is wrong at times but those beautiful casinos aren't built on consumer winning.
 
Anyone touching teh baseball these days? Indians are offering some nice value, but how does one bet against Verlander?
 
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TotesMagotes said:
I don't see much benefit in teasing college games.

My buddy likes doing two team teasers with 5 to 8 points favorites in the NFL and he has had a lot of success doing it. But I feel like he would have made as much money making the same plays straight up.
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The only +EV teasers that I know of are Wong Teasers (you can google it) but a lot of books have manipulated their lines to make these more difficult.
 
Okay after all the juice I'm up a hair over two units. Riding Unlv under 27.5 first half for those two units. I'm calling it a controlled impulse, lol. I felt like public perception is saying go over. And the money is going that way. I just thought that while it may go over, nothing has indicated to me that the game will go that way. It's funny had I gone over 27.5 would seem impossible but now that I've gone under I'm like 4 tds is nothing. Crazy huh?
 
You're alright, imurcane. Deep breaths and pick/choose what you like tomorrow.

Soccer plays in the AM:
****nal / Man U ML parlay: pays about .67:1
West Brom / Fulham draw +225
Norwich ML +125
 
Louisville -3 for 5.5*
I'm going to buy some back when it hits 3.5 and 4. I still don't know why it's at -3 with Bernard out, but I won't ever risk this much on a single game.

Ball State +4 3.75*
See above, but won't buy back as much.

USC -9 2*
Really like them in this spot. I never do teasers, but I might just tease them with another team I like around this number as well.

Northwestern -3 *
Northwestern -4 *
Hoping this hits 4 so I can cancel out that second unit.

TCU -20.5 *
TCU -22 * (hopefully get to buy-back)
See above.

Tennessee ML *
Tennessee -1 *
Love Tennessee here.

Northern Illinois -2 *

Central Florida -16 *

Western Michigan +3 *

Ohio -6 *

Toledo -6
Southern Miss -9 *
Hoping to hit one of these. I got both at a really bad spread....over-zealous.

Alabama -19

Louisiana Tech O66 2*
Riding with Japan

UCLA O74
 
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Yes, but it gives you great low-risk middling opportunities as well. Sometimes I'll buy numbers early in the week knowing they'll move in my direction and buy back before gametime.

If I middle once every 17 bets or so I break even. Last year I middled 3/19 games I bought back on. It doesn't seem like a lot but that is a good clip.
 
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