Numbers and thoughts re: the "Roster Overhaul"

[LuCane]

Still some cleaning up to do with the numbers and final signings, but wanted to get this rough draft out for discussion and updates. For the purposes of discussion, I'll call players not recruited to Miami by Mario as "non-Mario" guys.

Going into January:

Currently ~41 players total on offense. 17 of those (7 offensive linemen) were "non-Mario" guys, which is 41%. I'd expect at least 4 more (at least 3 OL) to exit prior to next season. From those current 17, these are some of the players: TVD, Restrepo, BSmith, Arroyo, Chaney, JRivers, ZNelson, JClark. If you remove only those, only 9 players not recruited by Mario remain, which is 22%.

Currently ~39 players total on defense. 13 players on defense (including 3 LBs) are "non-Mario" guys, which is 33%. I'd expect at least 2 more to exit prior to next season. From those current 13, these are some of the players: LTaylor, JHH, Harvey, Chase Smith, Flagg, Kinchens, JWilliams, Balom, and Couch. If you remove those, only 4 remain, which is 11%.

I'd predict 5-8 more exits/portals before next season. If you then add 6-8 more via Portal, there's a realistic chance next year's team, even with the guys who've chosen to ride with Mario's staff, is comprised of less than 30% "non-Mario" guys. Of those 30%, which would be about 25 or so players, we'd presumably *really want* about 18 of them, which makes the entire roster at or above 90% Mario's team.

Positional breakdown:

Offense:
Until we find out what happens with the current OC and who, if it happens, replaces him, I will only mention that the OL has clearly been transformed and we need a similar transformation at WR.

Defense:
- Mario has completely revamped the DE, LB, and CB positions. We're talking about only 30-35% "non-Mario" players, and at least 3-4 defensive starters who've presumably bought in.

- The DT position is in clear need of at least 2 large, productive players. Ideally, 1T-types. Without them, I think there's too much pressure on young players or guys being forced to play out of position.

- The DE position still needs the ascension of an elite Edge. A lot of raw talent at the position, and hopeful someone like Moss continues to fill out.

- The LB and Corner positions are dominated by extreme youth and significant raw talent. Considering our struggles here, I hope everyone is prepared to take the good (speed, talent, athleticism) with the bad (mistakes). Mauigoa is a nice addition to help balance the unit. Let's hope Chase Smith gets healthy and intends to stick.

- We need another Safety or for a corner to turn into a viable Safety. While I like some of the Safeties in the room, this position appears thin.

More to come, I'm sure. Wanted to lay out some numbers and check back on this over time.

 

[filmcane]

Still some cleaning up to do with the numbers and final signings, but wanted to get this rough draft out for discussion and updates. For the purposes of discussion, I'll call players not recruited to Miami by Mario as "non-Mario" guys.

Going into January:

Currently ~41 players total on offense. 17 of those (7 offensive linemen) were "non-Mario" guys, which is 41%. I'd expect at least 4 more (at least 3 OL) to exit prior to next season. From those current 17, these are some of the players: TVD, Restrepo, BSmith, Arroyo, Chaney, JRivers, ZNelson, JClark. If you remove only those, only 9 players not recruited by Mario remain, which is 22%.

Currently ~39 players total on defense. 13 players on defense (including 3 LBs) are "non-Mario" guys, which is 34%. I'd expect at least 2 more to exit prior to next season. From those current 13, these are some of the players: LTaylor, JHH, Harvey, Chase Smith, Flagg, Kinchens, JWilliams, Balom, and Couch. If you remove those, only 4 remain, which is 11%.

I'd predict 5-8 more exits/portals before next season. If you then add 6-8 more via Portal, there's a realistic chance next year's team, even with the guys who've chosen to ride with Mario's staff, is comprised of less than 30% "non-Mario" guys. Of those 30%, which would be about 25 or so players, we'd presumably *really want* about 18 of them, which makes the entire roster at or above 90% Mario's team.

Positional breakdown:

Offense:
Until we find out what happens with the current OC and who, if it happens, replaces him, I will only mention that the OL has clearly been transformed and we need a similar transformation at WR.

Defense:
- Mario has completely revamped the DE, LB, and CB positions. We're talking about only 30-35% "non-Mario" players, and at least 3-4 defensive starters who've presumably bought in.

- The DT position is in clear need of at least 2 large, productive players. Ideally, 1T-types. Without them, I think there's too much pressure on young players or guys being forced to play out of position.

- The DE position still needs the ascension of an elite Edge. A lot of raw talent at the position, and hopeful someone like Moss continues to fill out.

- The LB and Corner positions are dominated by extreme youth and significant raw talent. Considering our struggles here, I hope everyone is prepared to take the good (speed, talent, athleticism) with the bad (mistakes). Mauigoa is a nice addition to help balance the unit. Let's hope Chase Smith gets healthy and intends to stick.

- We need another Safety or for a corner to turn into a viable Safety. While I like some of the Safeties in the room, this position appears thin.

More to come, I'm sure. Wanted to lay out some numbers and check back on this over time.

The prognosis for the future is looking good.

 

[[]_[] swag]

A lot of talk about needing DTs. I see LT, JHH, Gore, Lichtenstein, and Moten as 5 players. 4 of whom have played and looked like they belong at p5 level.

I think we need 1 DT and it absolutely has to be a 1-tech. Our guys are all smaller DTs. We just need that Jackson replacement

 

[LuCane]

A lot of talk about needing DTs. I see LT, JHH, Gore, Lichtenstein, and Moten as 5 players. 4 of whom have played and looked like they belong at p5 level.

I think we need 1 DT and it absolutely has to be a 1-tech. Our guys are all smaller DTs. We just need that Jackson replacement

Perhaps I'm greedy. I liked the brief flash from Moten, but I've forever mentioned how DT is really a Year 3 position. Outside of some freaks, I think anything a DT gives you before year 3 is gravy. The rest of our guys are upfield players. Someone said we supposedly don't really like Alton Tarber. I don't know. I like guys who can hold the POA. They don't have to be "highly ranked" guys. Utah, get me two!

 

[DTP]

Yeah. I’m looking at the roster and the big hole is 1 technique DT. Much more desperate there than any other position. Including WR. Depending on what we do with the OC position, WR might not be nearly as bad as it seems under the current loser.

 

[TexasCane90]

I’d bring in Alton Tabor… he’s the guy you want for 15-20 plays ideally plugs in the run

 

[561Cane]

We need WR’s!!!!

 

[AtlAtty]

I’d bring in Alton Tabor… he’s the guy you want for 15-20 plays ideally plugs in the run

Yeah this isn’t an NFL roster limited to 45 people which has almost eliminated keeping a NT who mostly plays on 1st down and short yardage. 85 players means you can keep a few specialists like a NT or even a fullback for situational plays.

 

[BoxingRobes]

This might've needed to be a two off-season roster overhaul. I know that is tough for a lot of people to wrap their heads around as they thought/think there the quality of player on this team was higher...but when you couple the dearth of talent on this team with the contrast in player that was desired between the two coaches (being nice here) and I can understand the current situation in Coral Gables.

 

[Page305]

Mario literally just said at the presser that he's not even paying attention to numbers. It doesn't matter. And that there's still work being put in at DT and outside WR.

 

[dolpterry]

Few to many o-line and DEs on the roster and not enough DTs and WRs. Other then that looks like a solid roster.

 

[GojiraCane]

Mario literally just said at the presser that he's not even paying attention to numbers. It doesn't matter. And that there's still work being put in at DT and outside WR.

Shemar needs to come home.

 

[Page305]

Shemar needs to come home.

Maaaaaaaan that's a fact!

 

[LuCane]

Mario literally just said at the presser that he's not even paying attention to numbers. It doesn't matter. And that there's still work being put in at DT and outside WR.

I don’t know the context of his answer or the question he was asked. But, let’s keep it 100: to date, numbers don’t appear to be Mario’s strength on game days, either. While he can continue to chug cafecitos and put holes in his loafers, just hire a complementary staff that does consider how different numbers are working themselves out.

 

[Page305]

I don’t know the context of his answer or the question he was asked. But, let’s keep it 100: to date, numbers don’t appear to be Mario’s strength on game days, either. While he can continue to chug cafecitos and put holes in his loafers, just hire a complementary staff that does consider how different numbers are working themselves out.

..... Can't disagree

 

[supacane]

I don’t know the context of his answer or the question he was asked. But, let’s keep it 100: to date, numbers don’t appear to be Mario’s strength on game days, either. While he can continue to chug cafecitos and put holes in his loafers, just hire a complementary staff that does consider how different numbers are working themselves out.

He needs to hire a proven unquestioned OC and turn it over to him. Steele and Strong will fix the defense just by the significant athletic upgrade in the back 7. The key on offense was fixing the OL. We cant be held back by a egotistical OC which Gattis is. I dont expect anything more than 8 wins.

 

[LuCane]

He needs to hire a proven unquestioned OC and turn it over to him. Steele and Strong will fix the defense just by the significant athletic upgrade in the back 7. The key on offense was fixing the OL. We cant be held back by a egotistical OC which Gattis is. I dont expect anything more than 8 wins.

My OP wasn't really about filling the roster or having room. That works itself out. The objective of this thread is to track the turnover of the roster (which is going quite fast, actually) and how it might impact different position groups. Surely, there are folks in Mario's player personnel department - including Zo - who are on it. But, it's a fun discussion for the board, too.

To your points, there is also an element of this that is about focusing on what you're good at (for Mario, that seems like recruiting and closing) while others do their jobs well. I hope he does what you ask and turns over a very young, talented roster to creative Xs and Os folks who can deal with a lot of mistakes. I'm not worried about the Ws as much as I'm worried about what we saw this year: a ****show mismatch of players/systems/expectations.

 

[supacane]

My OP wasn't really about filling the roster or having room. That works itself out. The objective of this thread is to track the turnover of the roster (which is going quite fast, actually) and how it might impact different position groups. Surely, there are folks in Mario's player personnel department - including Zo - who are on it. But, it's a fun discussion for the board, too.

To your points, there is also an element of this that is about focusing on what you're good at (for Mario, that seems like recruiting and closing) while others do their jobs well. I hope he does what you ask and turns over a very young, talented roster to creative Xs and Os folks who can deal with a lot of mistakes. I'm not worried about the Ws as much as I'm worried about what we saw this year: a ****show mismatch of players/systems/expectations.

Yes precisely. We had no identity. No high point in the season. That has to change.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Still some cleaning up to do with the numbers and final signings, but wanted to get this rough draft out for discussion and updates. For the purposes of discussion, I'll call players not recruited to Miami by Mario as "non-Mario" guys.

Going into January:

Currently ~41 players total on offense. 17 of those (7 offensive linemen) were "non-Mario" guys, which is 41%. I'd expect at least 4 more (at least 3 OL) to exit prior to next season. From those current 17, these are some of the players: TVD, Restrepo, BSmith, Arroyo, Chaney, JRivers, ZNelson, JClark. If you remove only those, only 9 players not recruited by Mario remain, which is 22%.

Currently ~39 players total on defense. 13 players on defense (including 3 LBs) are "non-Mario" guys, which is 33%. I'd expect at least 2 more to exit prior to next season. From those current 13, these are some of the players: LTaylor, JHH, Harvey, Chase Smith, Flagg, Kinchens, JWilliams, Balom, and Couch. If you remove those, only 4 remain, which is 11%.

I'd predict 5-8 more exits/portals before next season. If you then add 6-8 more via Portal, there's a realistic chance next year's team, even with the guys who've chosen to ride with Mario's staff, is comprised of less than 30% "non-Mario" guys. Of those 30%, which would be about 25 or so players, we'd presumably *really want* about 18 of them, which makes the entire roster at or above 90% Mario's team.

Positional breakdown:

Offense:
Until we find out what happens with the current OC and who, if it happens, replaces him, I will only mention that the OL has clearly been transformed and we need a similar transformation at WR.

Defense:
- Mario has completely revamped the DE, LB, and CB positions. We're talking about only 30-35% "non-Mario" players, and at least 3-4 defensive starters who've presumably bought in.

- The DT position is in clear need of at least 2 large, productive players. Ideally, 1T-types. Without them, I think there's too much pressure on young players or guys being forced to play out of position.

- The DE position still needs the ascension of an elite Edge. A lot of raw talent at the position, and hopeful someone like Moss continues to fill out.

- The LB and Corner positions are dominated by extreme youth and significant raw talent. Considering our struggles here, I hope everyone is prepared to take the good (speed, talent, athleticism) with the bad (mistakes). Mauigoa is a nice addition to help balance the unit. Let's hope Chase Smith gets healthy and intends to stick.

- We need another Safety or for a corner to turn into a viable Safety. While I like some of the Safeties in the room, this position appears thin.

More to come, I'm sure. Wanted to lay out some numbers and check back on this over time.

For the O, we need to be realistic how much the current class elevates play in 2023.

Cohen appears to be a significant upgrade in talent, but our Canes need 4 more just like him. I'm sure he'll be shocked at just how bad the older OL players are compared to what he just left behind. It's unfair to expect much more than small roles for Pancake and Mags Y1. Data will tell you we are looking at Y2-3 before those trees bear fruit. Will Big Manny's OL recruits from last year help fill the gaps playing alongside Cohen? They'll have to because accept this reality: OL room has been awful since forever.

Now, keep O status quo with a much improved OL and watch how everything magically starts to click. A capable OL enables everything on O. Now, get other positions groups at above average/elite and have an elite OL?

CFBPO here comes Miami...

 

[brcane1]

My OP wasn't really about filling the roster or having room. That works itself out. The objective of this thread is to track the turnover of the roster (which is going quite fast, actually) and how it might impact different position groups. Surely, there are folks in Mario's player personnel department - including Zo - who are on it. But, it's a fun discussion for the board, too.

To your points, there is also an element of this that is about focusing on what you're good at (for Mario, that seems like recruiting and closing) while others do their jobs well. I hope he does what you ask and turns over a very young, talented roster to creative Xs and Os folks who can deal with a lot of mistakes. I'm not worried about the Ws as much as I'm worried about what we saw this year: a ****show mismatch of players/systems/expectations.

There's an argument that empty roster spots are a legacy of the previous staff. Maybe not the first one or two as you figure teams average less than 85 scholarship players, but the rest of unused scholarships below a baseline might as well be "Non-Mario" guys. Basically an 3 non-Mario / non-turned over spots spread across say DT & WR for these purposes?

Just a marginally different model to add to your great analysis!