We need top recruiting classes combined with high preseason ranking. Anything else is an outlier stab, and destined to fail.
The problem with this site is two-fold:
* You have too many people atop the site who are very close to the program, and year long they provide slanted unrealistic appraisal of how close we are to the truly elite programs
* That outlier "Why not us?" mentality is garbage but too easily swallowed by gullible fans. It is pushed here repeatedly.
Miami will be legitimate when the preseason ratings suggest as much. This year we were 17th in the consensus of the magazines, etc. That's nice compared to where we've been but a cavern from likelihood to run the table in December and January.
Here is a study from 2 years ago on the amazing value of preseason ratings, when you know how to apply them. I have known about this for more than 20 years and posted about it on sports sites for more than 15 years. It is laughable that so many people scoff at preseason ratings. It basically certifies that you have no clue. Preseason ratings are gold later in the season and in bowl games, as I've emphasized and as the article describes. I don't doubt that the author may have seen some of my related posts on college football sites because he used the same criteria I have long specified...how the higher rated team from preseason fares in bowl games against the spread.
I had no confidence tonight because we were finally facing a team that was indeed rated extremely high in preseason, unlike someone like Notre Dame which was an upstart similar to ourselves.
This is the key section of the article overall:
"So screws the preseason polls. Let's give these coaches and sports writers a few weeks to watch games. Then we can find value in these polls for determining team strength.
However, this conventional wisdom has it backwards. The preseason polls are remarkable predictors of team strength. Later polls lose this predictive power."
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/10/9295405/college-football-preseason-polls-accuracy