After the Pitt loss I realistically expected the spread to be Clemson -14. I am a huge Hurricanes fan but also a realist. With Herndon being out, AR still dealing with his hamstring and the comparitives of the QB, running game, etc...can’t realistically see this game even being close. I’d even put the spread higher unfortunately. I feel I could make a lot of money betting on Clemson to cover the 9.5 point spread. If Miami lost by less than 10 that would just about be a win for them. I know people will argue that this is not a supportive post but can this truly be argued and expect the results of the game to be much different?
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itsacanething
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Richards looked healthy against Pitt. Just my opinion.
Gatorhater
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I am a betting man and I bet he does.
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IllinoisCane
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Excellent 1st post...this guy will do great here!
My 1st post was actually very positive and was a message for the team to hopefully read but it didn’t get posted for whatever reason. Wasn’t trying to come off negative but I have always had a bad habit of seeming pessimistic with regards to teams I root for. I’m trying to get better actually and this season was def a stepping stone because I do actually believe they can turn this program around with proper recruiting in the coming years after having such a successful season. Hopefully many will want to come to the U now and keep players from south Florida in the area for their college years.
matzah_ball
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Who cares what you would bet? You're in the process of filing for bankruptcy after betting on VT and ND.
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Awsi Dooger
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The spreads are indeed based on power ratings, even if countless fans here and everywhere prefer to believe it's some type of variable-obsessed brain trust. The power ratings approach does a fine job of splitting the opening action decently enough. Then the sportsbooks really don't care too much if action takes it sharply one way or another. Yeah, they move the number in that direction but it's hardly panic mode to buy wagers on the other side in desperation to balance the action on each specific game. They know they will win roughly half of the big moves so it's in their interest to stay put despite the imbalance, and not shift the number so far they are in greater danger of being middled by sharps and the public alike.
The new poster Poptimus is among the very few who understand that dynamic. He described it very well in the line move thread on the Pittsburgh game.
Those power ratings move gradually, which is why a number like this doesn't shift as much as the public might imagine. All year in each sport it's basically a juggling act between public money wanting to take the next result in the same direction as the most recent indication, and wise guy money generally holding it closer to last week's normalcy. Each approach will have several big weeks per season, but most weeks are some type of split.
This is actually a relatively large move within one week. Clemson would have been roughly a 6 to 7 point favorite if the game had been played a week ago.
Poptimus
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OP's post reeks of trolling, but just for the heck of it I'll chime in. So AR's hurt and Herndon's out, thus the 9.5 spread is off? Don't you think that Vegas/offshore is aware of that and it's already factored into the price? The spreads are all based on regression and advanced computer algorithms and statistics. There's some tweaking to the output to account for injuries and other intangibles that are difficult to quantify (e.g. one team is playing their third straight game on the road), but these algorithms are so all-encompassing they factor in variables you'd never consider. Vegas/offshore knows, however, that some of the outputs are so disparate from what the public perception is, that they can get away with a couple points here or there on a game, and usually they shade their lines on favorites and "public" teams like the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Lakers, just because they can. I honestly think that's what is happening with our game against Clemson: we looked like crap against Pitt, they looked great against South Carolina, hence Joe Public thinks we should get waxed. And so Vegas inflates the line a point or two just because they can.
Did they do that for sure with the Clemson line? **** if I know. It may close Clemson -12, I'm not the originator of the move. But I can interpret pretty decently what it means looking at a week's worth of movement. You have to look at certain sites for the line. Someone here was quoting a line from Bovada last week. That's a trash site that means nothing. And you have to know that, to Awsi Dooger's point, you may have some guys middling the game, which could explain why the line could rise to, say, Clemson -13 before dropping to a close of Clemson -12. Not saying that will happen, just saying it's something to watch out for. It's known as technical analysis, the same strategy some use to invest in stocks. The key difference, however, is there are dozens and dozens of outs/casinos, but only one stock exchange. And market manipulation is legal with gambling, but not with stocks.
No, you don't typically see 5 point swings on a game. I'd be surprised if this game closes outside the range of Clemson -9 and Clemson -11.
[MENTION=2134]Awsi Dooger[/MENTION], it's actually hilarious to see that "Spread betting" on wikipedia incorrectly refers to the fallacy of balanced action: "The goal of the casino is to set a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides, thereby guaranteeing a profit." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting
Fake news!
Did they do that for sure with the Clemson line? **** if I know. It may close Clemson -12, I'm not the originator of the move. But I can interpret pretty decently what it means looking at a week's worth of movement. You have to look at certain sites for the line. Someone here was quoting a line from Bovada last week. That's a trash site that means nothing. And you have to know that, to Awsi Dooger's point, you may have some guys middling the game, which could explain why the line could rise to, say, Clemson -13 before dropping to a close of Clemson -12. Not saying that will happen, just saying it's something to watch out for. It's known as technical analysis, the same strategy some use to invest in stocks. The key difference, however, is there are dozens and dozens of outs/casinos, but only one stock exchange. And market manipulation is legal with gambling, but not with stocks.
No, you don't typically see 5 point swings on a game. I'd be surprised if this game closes outside the range of Clemson -9 and Clemson -11.
[MENTION=2134]Awsi Dooger[/MENTION], it's actually hilarious to see that "Spread betting" on wikipedia incorrectly refers to the fallacy of balanced action: "The goal of the casino is to set a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides, thereby guaranteeing a profit." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting
Fake news!
Uthe1
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This a Miami hurricanes site and if you have nothing good or positive to say about the hurricanes that's your prerogative, just would appreciate if you say it some place else,please and thank you
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