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Tears Nole Tears (“Offcial”)

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grover said:
The people thinking Beck is limited are crazy. He’ll make the handoff if FSU plays off. But he’ll rip through those DBs if the numbers and matchups are right.
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He needs to use his legs in this game more . Like he did the usf game to take what the defense gives without taking shots
 
They are bent on Bama. I give the total credit for taking Bama apart. I'm not gonna discredit that or say Bama will beat them now. They may well be a terrible match-up for Bama. But guys, that was in August. We are in October. Bama had no film on their new team and new coaches with those players together. Teams do now. Like Virginia. UF had film to watch on us and their offense was worse than they did v LSU except the picks.
 
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Came through hog town this morning. Assignment, i picked up from the company terminal in Springfield Missouri and dropped in Williston, FL this morning. Got through tally at like 7 am. Next assignment i picked up in Lake City, went through Gainesville on my way to Lebanon Tennessee. Should be parked up around midday tomorrow and ready to take in the day activities. We gonna roll them. Im thinking something like 31-21. I think we are bad match-up for them. I see alot of negative plays for their offense and alot of rushing yards for us. UVA violated their DL.
 
mirvin88 said:
You. Lost. To. UVA

Would BAMA be favored over them? Yes probably by 14+.
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I wonder how much these vegas numbers are computer vs. subjective adjustment because the computer power rankings seem to have Miami in the 10-12 range and the eyeball test of ball knowers seems to have Miami top 5. Vegas power rating would have PSU as a slight favorite over Miami on a neutral field and I don't see it.
 
Cookie917 said:
I feel like that will be their GP. No reason for Norvell to change. Last year I remember Cam yelling at their safeties to walk up and they wouldnt do it. He (Cam) seemed frustrated because he knew against that look the right call was a run for 7 yards but you could tell he really wanted to let it rip. I see them doing the same game plan, sit back, hope we shoot ourselves in the foot, keep the game close, hope their offense can put up points in a hurry and try to turn us more one dimensional. Not saying it will work but thats exactly how they played us last year.
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Cpl things about last years game pass pro was terrible from Miami.

FSU actually tackled very well/Miami backs weren't that dynamic.

You want safeties to creep up you got to gash defenses with 20 plus yard runs.

I hope tonight the backs run with serious purpose cause one thing I dont really want is Miami trying to have 16 play drives all night.

One penalty or sack can kill a drive when you play that way.
 
Glow said:
I wonder how much these vegas numbers are computer vs. subjective adjustment because the computer power rankings seem to have Miami in the 10-12 range and the eyeball test of ball knowers seems to have Miami top 5. Vegas power rating would have PSU as a slight favorite over Miami on a neutral field and I don't see it.
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We would crush the Nittanies on a neutral field. We are a terrible matchup for PSU.
 
ShadowSpring said:
It's amazing how they've recruited like garbage and got average players from the portal and be like we top 10. I am not sure I was ever that delusional about Miami. Hope not. That team is not good nor talented. Tricky but dated offensive scheme. Mario better not lose to that sorry team.
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The tricky and dated offensive scheme does not work against a disciplined defense with fairly decent talent. I feel our defense is both disciplined and has above average talent. Maybe elite on the DE's right now. UF ran that gimmick offense under Urban Meyer with Tim Tebow, but they had amazing athletes on that side of the ball. FSU has nowhere near that talent on offense.

Even in the UVA game, UVA really didn't bite on their trick plays, they just didn't tackle good on most of them and that's why FSU had success. That end-around to FSU's fast receiver, UVA had him in the backfield for a loss and just failed to tackle. Same with a couple Castellanos runs. Only time they really got tricked was on the wild cat formation when the running back threw a jump pass at the goal line. FSU couldn't even line up and just run into the teeth of their defense for 1 yard.

If our defense just plays disciplined and tackles well, we win by 20.
 
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Glow said:
They think they can get Miami's DL tired and sloppy in the 4th quarter if they push the pace so they are gonna run stunt and blitz and risk giving up more explosives to prevent the long plodding death march stuff.
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My understanding of history is that death march participants didn't have much of a choice in the matter.

Glow said:
I wonder how much these vegas numbers are computer vs. subjective adjustment because the computer power rankings seem to have Miami in the 10-12 range and the eyeball test of ball knowers seems to have Miami top 5. Vegas power rating would have PSU as a slight favorite over Miami on a neutral field and I don't see it.
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It's a model driven industry. The human touch is what data to include and how to weight particular attributes within the model.

All the major models that I am aware of use historic data within the model. Two everyone knows FPI uses 4 seasons and SP+ 3 seasons. They weight recent results higher, but the historic data is a drag on Miami's ranking in computer models. Syracuse and Iowa State are still in the most recent 6 games for Miami!

Miami will climb in rankings just by performing consistently and getting further away from the end of last year.
 
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