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NFL draft picks by 247 stars.

SevnandSevn

Recruit
Joined
Mar 1, 2015
Messages
20
Using Rivals' numbers from 2018 5 stars definitely get drafted at a higher percentage

30 five-stars
380 four-stars
1,328 three-stars
1,859 two-stars
296,403 unrated

1st round
5stars - 7 (23.33%)
4stars - 10 (2.63%)
3stars - 14 (1.05%)
2stars - 1 (.05%)

2nd round
5stars - 4 (13.33%)
4stars - 16 (4.21%)
3stars - 11 (.82%)
2stars - 2 (.1%)

3rd round
5stars - 3 (10%)
4stars - 17 (4.47%)
3stars - 16 (1.2%)
2stars - 5 (.26%)
 

rustywalkedaway

Sophomore
Joined
Jan 17, 2013
Messages
1,632
That breakdown also shows that less than half of the total 5 stars, the supposedly most promising and elite prospects, got drafted in the first 3 rounds.
 

puertorricane

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Jan 14, 2012
Messages
2,018
Give me all those four and three stars and I'll be happy.
I wasn't making any argument for or against stars, just posting the info for discussion.
But the main thing is getting the right players regardless of stars.

But I dont agree with the percentage argument.
Not every four or three star is the same.

A three star recruited by power five schools is not the same as kid with only an offer from Howard for example.

The comparison should be the top 40 five stars vs the top 40 four stars and top 40 3 stars.
Then you can have a true idea who gets drafted at a higher percentage.
 
Joined
Mar 15, 2013
Messages
7,106
I think a more interesting analysis would be to show who assessed and then coached those 3 star players in college because that's where you'll find the really good talent evaluators and coaches IMO.
 

lurk

Recruit
Joined
Dec 17, 2017
Messages
284
sooooo, stars do matter
Three things:

1. I did not check the O.P.s underlying data, but their math itself is flawed. And it indicates (but doesn't necessarily prove) being a 5 star matters even more than shown.

This is because theiir math cheated the 5 stars drafted percentage(especially) making the 5star benefit less glaring than reality. Example: if there are 30 5 stars each year, and 7 were drafted in round 1, that means there were only 23 remained (30-7) for round 2. So 4 of 23 remaining were drafted in round 2 ... Or ~17.4%. Leaving 19 left for round 3.

2. Conversely, just because 5stars are clearly more likely to get drafted highly, part of that may be because 5 star recruits tend to be offered scholarships and attend highly successful bcs schools that: spend extra time developing that talent through coaching, nutrition, strength&conditioning, and early starting assignments because of perception of greatness.

A third thing is to show the draft result relationship to the bcs championship game schools... without regard for their individual star rating. That would be an even more glaring stat.

If I did my research correctly, 26 players chosen in the first round in 2020 or 2021 played for schools that were among the 4 teams (OH, AL, CL, LSU) in the bcs championship game in the last 2 years!

Shazam!
 

rustywalkedaway

Sophomore
Joined
Jan 17, 2013
Messages
1,632
There is also an unquantifiable component to this, in my opinion. I suspect a 3 star gets drafted high because of actual college production, where a 5 star might get drafted higher than their college production. I don't mean this happens across the board, but it happens.
 

grover

Senior
Joined
Jan 30, 2012
Messages
6,188
Too many 4 stars. Would be more relevant to see the National Composite Top 100, as well as the Florida Composite Top 50.
 

Ethnicsands

All-American
Joined
Nov 2, 2011
Messages
22,307
That breakdown also shows that less than half of the total 5 stars, the supposedly most promising and elite prospects, got drafted in the first 3 rounds.
14 out of 30 give or take. Assume A couple will get hurt, also. So it’s about 50% top 3 rounds. That’s a great ratio. You have the rest of the draft To add in, and udfas. Sounds like few 5* true busts.
 

svenben

Freshman
Joined
Jun 18, 2014
Messages
899
I think a more interesting analysis would be to show who assessed and then coached those 3 star players in college because that's where you'll find the really good talent evaluators and coaches IMO.
Should not be to hard as only 3% of 3-stars were drafted day 1 or day 2.
 
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