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Next DC needs to run a 3-4 hybrid

Ironmanfootball said:
Top 10 defenses per SP+:
6/10 are 3-4, 4/10 are 4-2 as a "base"
6/10 are 50% or above in Blue Chip Ratio: the 4 that aren't are Wisconsin (2nd), Iowa (4th), SD State (8th) and Ok State (10th)
7/10 are "offensive" head coaches with only UGA, Bama and SD State being "defensive" HC's

Miami needs to find someone that can recruit as acquisition is the #1 quality to winning. After that it's develop and after that deployment.
Of the SP+ Top10 heading into the next week, 7/10 are in the 50% BCR window. Wisconsin, Cincy and Pitt aren't.

Oregon 14th overall, 13th offense, 35th defense, 5th kicking
Miami 32nd overall, 22nd, 47th, 50th
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You are supporting what many of us have said for ages now: offense has become the best defense under current rule sets.

If a team can keep their O on the field longer, I'd offer the stats of an average or even below average D will be significantly better (and therefore masking their deficiencies).

The best unit for D? Have an elite OL and that is what Mario seems to realize and building towards.

My concern for 2022, like we've seen before, is Gattis will stubbornly try to run plays like he had with Meesheghans OL. If that becomes a disaster (like with Dan Penos in the Aenos), expect CIS meltdowns over how bad the D is playing. TAMU especially vould get ugly.
 
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KANE said:
Trust me when I say…. The 4-2-5 is not the issue. It’s the installation, the installer, and the talent running it. In today’s game, with all of these spread offenses and different personnel groupings, you have to be multiple. The 4-2-5 offers that. I say all that to say that All 4-2-5 defenses are not created equal.
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Right. None of it matters when you give up 7 yards on first down runs and then have your DL abandon contain and run themselves out of plays on 3rd and longs.
 
I noticed in the spring game we went to a short game passing theme which allows for running backs to play a role in the passing game and get possibly more YAK. That is a way to set up more downfield gains. Either way you are passing and to think we can have a ratio of more than 70/30 passing will be quite a challenge but that is what Mario is striving for we shall see.
 
Empirical Cane said:
You are supporting what many of us have said for ages now: offense has become the best defense under current rule sets.

If a team can keep their O on the field longer, I'd offer the stats of an average or even below average D will be significantly better (and therefore masking their deficiencies).

The best unit for D? Have an elite OL and that is what Mario seems to realize and building towards.

My concern for 2022, like we've seen before, is Gattis will stubbornly try to run plays like he had with Meesheghans OL. If that becomes a disaster (like with Dan Penos in the Aenos), expect CIS meltdowns over how bad the D is playing. TAMU especially vould get ugly.
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SP+, unlike total defense type chit, adjusts for # of possessions. So AWP/AF/Navy don't get the benefit of having those types of offenses in SP+

TOP isn't the answer, plenty of meh and bad teams can hog up the ball and still lose to bad teams (Minnesota, W Mich, Miss St, NIU, Rice).
ex. Bama was 18th in TOP, Michigan 22, UGA 43, Cincy 124th (Miami 120th, Oregon 68th)

Points per play on the other hand:
UGA 3rd, Cincy 4th, Mich 9th, Bama 12th (Miami 50th, Oregon 38th)

You win games with points, you score points with explosive plays. Gridiron Genius by Lombardi (bad title, kind of a blow hard) had a good stat re the NFL and explosives. No explosives on a drive = no points. 1 = FG, 2+ = TD. Something like that.

You lose games when you turn the ball over, fudge up in the kicking game, and can't produce explosives while allowing them. Manny's idea of allowing explosives to hope to get one worked when all the ACC Coastal O's were 80 and worse in SP+. Once Pickett, Howell, Armstrong improved; and he faced Lawrence- his idea backfired.
 
Ironmanfootball said:
SP+, unlike total defense type chit, adjusts for # of possessions. So AWP/AF/Navy don't get the benefit of having those types of offenses in SP+

TOP isn't the answer, plenty of meh and bad teams can hog up the ball and still lose to bad teams (Minnesota, W Mich, Miss St, NIU, Rice).
ex. Bama was 18th in TOP, Michigan 22, UGA 43, Cincy 124th (Miami 120th, Oregon 68th)

Points per play on the other hand:
UGA 3rd, Cincy 4th, Mich 9th, Bama 12th (Miami 50th, Oregon 38th)

You win games with points, you score points with explosive plays. Gridiron Genius by Lombardi (bad title, kind of a blow hard) had a good stat re the NFL and explosives. No explosives on a drive = no points. 1 = FG, 2+ = TD. Something like that.

You lose games when you turn the ball over, fudge up in the kicking game, and can't produce explosives while allowing them. Manny's idea of allowing explosives to hope to get one worked when all the ACC Coastal O's were 80 and worse in SP+. Once Pickett, Howell, Armstrong improved; and he faced Lawrence- his idea backfired.
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Interesting. So those metrics take into account for a dysfunctional O putting their D in bad positions drive after drive?
 
Long, tall, lean prototype DE's grow on trees in SFL. Not so much the big three four ends that go grow up in SEC country. It's just too **** hot here or something. Speed Rush ends, linebackers playing sideline to sideline and an athletic secondary just fits the type of kids that grow up in South Florida. I don't think the 3/4 scheme fits the kind of athletes (typically leaner and faster) we have great access to. Stay with Jimmie Johnson's philosophy.
 
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All around me are familiar faces
Worn out places, worn out faces
Bright and early for their daily races
Going nowhere, going nowhere
 
Empirical Cane said:
Interesting. So those metrics take into account for a dysfunctional O putting their D in bad positions drive after drive?
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Basically.

"SP+ ratings (SP+) are tempo- and opponent-adjusted measures of college football efficiency based on play-by-play and drive data designed to be predictive and forward-facing."
 
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Ironmanfootball said:
Basically.

"SP+ ratings (SP+) are tempo- and opponent-adjusted measures of college football efficiency based on play-by-play and drive data designed to be predictive and forward-facing."
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Seems a touch counterintuitive though.

Granted Os have to score points no doubt, but of the formula:

possession + explosive play(s) = points


I'm feeling, over the total data, possession is the more important variable? I know Capt Obvious here, but with more consistent possession time a team should have more opportunity for explosive play(s).


Am I off on this??
 
Empirical Cane said:
Seems a touch counterintuitive though.

Granted Os have to score points no doubt, but of the formula:

possession + explosive play(s) = points


I'm feeling, over the total data, possession is the more important variable? I know Capt Obvious here, but with more consistent possession time a team should have more opportunity for explosive play(s).


Am I off on this??
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The academies take 4 downs to get 10y. They huddle. They walk up slow and make pre-snap reads slowly, sometimes even check w/ me w/ the OC bc the formations are often either 2x2 balanced, OR, very unbalanced (tackle and wing over, etc)

If you have an explosive, you'll have the ball less time, especially if you're Oklahoma / Ole Miss / UCF / Tennessee and are going faster than most... sometimes I wonder if you guys on here watch any games but Miami.

Points per play (all top 5 TOP)
Army WP 31
AF 45
Navy 112

SP+ Offense
UGA 2
OSU 1
Bama 4
Mich 19
Cincy 13
Wisconsin 59 (high TOP)
Minny 63 (high TOP)
Miami 25th (low TOP, med PPP)
AF 57th (high TOP)
Army WP 66 (high TOP)
Navy 115th (high TOP)
Western Mich 40th (high TOP)

PPG ranking:
OSU 1
Bama 5
UGA 8
Cincy 11
Mich 14

Miami 41
Oregon 46

Navy 112
Minny 82
Miss St 68 (high TOP)
Air Force 42
NIU 33
W Mich 23
Army 44
Wisc 83
 
Ironmanfootball said:
The academies take 4 downs to get 10y. The huddle. They walk up slow and make pre-snap reads slowly, sometimes even check w/ me w/ the OC bc the formations are often either 2x2 balanced, OR, very unbalanced (tackle and wing over, etc)

If you have an explosive, you'll have the ball less time, especially if you're Oklahoma / Ole Miss / UCF / Tennessee and are going faster than most... sometimes I wonder if you guys on here watch any games but Miami. like

Points per play (all top 5 TOP)
Army WP 31
AF 45
Navy 112

SP+ Offense
UGA 2
OSU 1
Bama 4
Mich 19
Cincy 13
Wisconsin 59 (high TOP)
Minny 63 (high TOP)
Miami 25th (low TOP, med PPP)
AF 57th (high TOP)
Army WP 66 (high TOP)
Navy 115th (high TOP)
Western Mich 40th (high TOP)

PPG ranking:
OSU 1
Bama 5
UGA 8
Cincy 11
Mich 14

Miami 41
Oregon 46

Navy 112
Minny 82
Miss St 68 (high TOP)
Air Force 42
NIU 33
W Mich 23
Army 44
Wisc 83
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This is good stuff.

I would discount/remove Service Academies though as they just don't have the same types of physical athletes across the board as top 5 teams do.

So where does a Wisconsin come off the rails? Are they missing those few key explosive athletes?
 
Empirical Cane said:
This is good stuff.

I would discount/remove Service Academies though as they just don't have the same types of physical athletes across the board as top 5 teams do.

So where does a Wisconsin come off the rails? Are they missing those few key explosive athletes?
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Not discounting the service academies, they're overachieving all the time. They hardly have penalties or turnovers which keeps them in games

ex. least giveaways / game: Army WP 2, Navy 5, AF 7.
UGA Mich Bama 22, Cincy 65
Miami 82, Oregon 34
Wisc 105, Minny 22, W Mich 42

Least Penalties / game
Army, Navy, AF are 2, 8 and 6.
Miami 114th, Oregon 111th
Bama 99
Cincy 111
Mich 20
UGA 37

Issue re Wisconsin is that all of their drafted small skills are OOS players (FL, GA, SC). The entire state has 2 ranked players for '23: 3* RB, 3* DE.
Not a plethora of 4* skills waiting around for an offer. They're like Utah- they acquire hard workers, develop the chit out of 'em, and deploy them in their scheme to be successful most years
 
Empirical Cane said:
You are supporting what many of us have said for ages now: offense has become the best defense under current rule sets.

If a team can keep their O on the field longer, I'd offer the stats of an average or even below average D will be significantly better (and therefore masking their deficiencies).

The best unit for D? Have an elite OL and that is what Mario seems to realize and building towards.

My concern for 2022, like we've seen before, is Gattis will stubbornly try to run plays like he had with Meesheghans OL. If that becomes a disaster (like with Dan Penos in the Aenos), expect CIS meltdowns over how bad the D is playing. TAMU especially vould get ugly.
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Regarding your concern, personally I give Gattis a little more credit in terms of having a good grasp of what this line can do and what it can't do. Gattis also needs to factor in the strength he has at QB and at TE. I'm not saying your concerns are unjustified because we have seen what you described above many times. However as I said before I'm going to give this staff the benefit of the doubt as I would like to think that someone like Gattis would be up to the task of tailoring the offense to what we do best.

Having said all that it may take a few games for this offense to fully gel and come into its own and that ATM game is early in the season. The great thing about having a QB like TVD is that if the game plan falls apart you can always have him wing it all over the field and trust he can bring us back
 
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