Next 2 weeks - what needs to happen

TheOriginalCane

So say good night to the bad guy!
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Currently, there are 8 ACC teams (7 eligible teams) with either 6 or 7 ACC conference wins this year (and then NC State has 8 ACC wins).

Obviously, Miami (6-10 ACC) needs to win all 4 remaining games and thus finish 10-10 ACC. Remaining - @Notre Dame, @GaTech, UVa, and Syracuse. UVa will be the toughest game, though it is a home game.

1. Pitt (6-10 ACC) - we need Pitt to lose once more, as we split our 2 games. Remaining - UVa, Syracuse, @NC State, @GaTech. Very likely to finish with 11 or more losses.
2. VaTech (6-9 ACC) - we need VaTech to lose at least once more, as we swept them this year. Remaining - @Duke, UVa, @louisville, Clemson, @Notre Dame. Very likely to finish with 11 or more losses.
3. BC (7-9 ACC) - we need BC to lose at least once more, as we beat them in our 1 game this year. Remaining - Clemson, Notre Dame, Syracuse, @F$U. Very likely to finish with 10 or more losses.
4. GaTech (7-8 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us tiebreaker), we need GaTech to lose at least once more. Remaining - @Syracuse, Clemson, MIAMI, Pitt, @Clemson. We need help from one of Syracuse/Clemson(twice)/Pitt, which are 3 teams with very comparable records. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play Syracuse and Clemson on the road. GaTech ineligible for ACC Tournament.
5. Notre Dame (7-8 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us tiebreaker), we need Notre Dame to lose at least once more. Remaining - MIAMI, @BC, @Wake, FSU, VaTech. Very likely to finish with 10 or more losses.
6. Clemson (7-8 ACC) - we need Clemson to lose at least TWICE, as we beat them in our 1 game this year. Remaining - @BC, @GaTech, F$U, @VaTech, GaTech. We need help from one of BC/GaTech(twice)/VaTech. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play BC, GaTech, and VaTech on the road.
7. Syracuse (7-8 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us tiebreaker), we need Syracuse to lose at least once more. Remaining - GaTech, @Pitt, UNC, @BC, @Miami. We need help from GaTech/Pitt/UNC/BC. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play Pitt and BC on the road, 2 teams with very comparable records.
8. NC State (8-7 ACC) - this one is **** near impossible. We need NC State to lose 4 out of 5 games, since they swept us this year. Remaining - F$U, @UNC, Pitt, @Duke, Wake. They are near-mortal locks over Wake, and would likely lose to F$U and @Duke, meaning that we would ALSO need them to lose @UNC and at home to Pitt. UNC is a rivalry game, anything could happen. Losing at home to Pitt is unlikely. Therefore, the chances of all of these things happening is VERY UNLIKELY.

Overall, we have a fairly decent shot, ASSUMING WE WIN OUT, to finish at the 6th seed in the ACC tournament. We would need major miracles to get the 5 seed.

So, on Saturday:

Root for UVa over Pitt
Root for F$U over NC State (painful)
Root for UNC over Louisville (makes our loss to UNC look better)
Root for GT over Syracuse (GaTech is ineligible for the post-season, so we really don't care)
Root for BC over Clemson, as we need Clemson to lose twice, and BC has to play @F$U (Clemson gets F$U at home)
Root for Duke over VaTech

And on Sunday, root for MIAMI. Obviously.
 
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We need to get a serviceable big man or 2 to become a consistent winner. We lose a Vasilovic and Stone, who had a great game past night.
 
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I'm not listening to the doubters. I play until the echo of the whistle. This is my alma mater, I've been going to hoops games since we were in the Knight Center.

We've got a shot, a very slim shot, and I'm just analyzing the matchups and what needs to happen. If you want to mope, go to another thread.

I'm not being unrealistic about likely outcomes, and it is certainly a huge hurdle for UM to win out, especially the UVa game. BUT IF WE DO WIN OUT, this is where we need some help.

Go Canes!
 
Hot Take Warning...There is no better draft pick for losing games and coming in last. So win...

With that said, the most important thing is to build/develop for the future and play the players who actually will be here in the future.
 
After everything this program has experienced with the absurd inclusion in the fbi investigation and how that impacted recruiting, consider me impressed with what Coach L has accomplished. The man can definitely coach. And once he has a level playing field I believe Coach L will have UM back in the upper tier of the ACC.
 
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Not happening it’s pipe dream.

Exactly.

I'm happy for the kids that they are finally enjoying some health and success where they should, but running off 4 more with 2 on the road will be brutally tough for this squad maybe finally getting some legs underneath them VERY late. Here's to hoping though.

UM
 
This is not last year's UVA team

Sadly, I'm not sure they have to be after beating a bad UNC team twice that recently blew our doors off.....

Can we beat we them, absolutely....but I'm truly more worried about taking care of our other road business.
 
Currently, there are 8 ACC teams with either 6 or 7 ACC conference wins this year (and then NC State has 8 ACC wins).

Obviously, Miami (6-10 ACC) needs to win all 4 remaining games and thus finish 10-10 ACC. Remaining - @Notre Dame, @GaTech, UVa, and Syracuse. UVa will be the toughest game, though it is a home game.

1. Pitt (6-10 ACC) - we need Pitt to lose once more, as we split our 2 games. Remaining - UVa, Syracuse, @NC State, @GaTech. Very likely to finish with 11 or more losses.
2. VaTech (6-9 ACC) - we need VaTech to lose at least once more, as we swept them this year. Remaining - @Duke, UVa, @louisville, Clemson, @Notre Dame. Very likely to finish with 11 or more losses.
3. BC (7-9 ACC) - we need BC to lose at least once more, as we beat them in our 1 game this year. Remaining - Clemson, Notre Dame, Syracuse, @F$U. Very likely to finish with 10 or more losses.
4. GaTech (7-8 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us tiebreaker), we need GaTech to lose at least once more. Remaining - @Syracuse, Clemson, MIAMI, Pitt, @Clemson. We need help from one of Syracuse/Clemson(twice)/Pitt, which are 3 teams with very comparable records. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play Syracuse and Clemson on the road.
5. Notre Dame (7-8 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us tiebreaker), we need Notre Dame to lose at least once more. Remaining - MIAMI, @BC, @Wake, FSU, VaTech. Very likely to finish with 10 or more losses.
6. Clemson (7-8 ACC) - we need Clemson to lose at least TWICE, as we beat them in our 1 game this year. Remaining - @BC, @GaTech, F$U, @VaTech, GaTech. We need help from one of BC/GaTech(twice)/VaTech. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play BC, GaTech, and VaTech on the road.
7. Syracuse (7-8 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us tiebreaker), we need Syracuse to lose at least once more. Remaining - GaTech, @Pitt, UNC, @BC, @Miami. We need help from GaTech/Pitt/UNC/BC. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play Pitt and BC on the road, 2 teams with very comparable records.
8. NC State (8-7 ACC) - this one is **** near impossible. We need NC State to lose 4 out of 5 games, since they swept us this year. Remaining - F$U, @UNC, Pitt, @Duke, Wake. They are near-mortal locks over Wake, and would likely lose to F$U and @Duke, meaning that we would ALSO need them to lose @UNC and at home to Pitt. UNC is a rivalry game, anything could happen. Losing at home to Pitt is unlikely. Therefore, the chances of all of these things happening is VERY UNLIKELY.

Overall, we have a fairly decent shot, ASSUMING WE WIN OUT, to finish at the 6th seed in the ACC tournament. We would need major miracles to get the 5 seed.

So, on Saturday:

Root for UVa over Pitt
Root for F$U over NC State (painful)
Root for UNC over Louisville (makes our loss to UNC look better)
It would be great for both GT and Syracuse to lose, but Miami has to beat both, so either team losing helps Miami
Root for BC over Clemson, as we need Clemson to lose twice, and BC has to play @F$U (Clemson gets F$U at home)
Root for Duke over VaTech

And on Sunday, root for MIAMI. Obviously.
Nice paragraph. You never once said a shot at what? Higher seed?
 
Nice paragraph. You never once said a shot at what? Higher seed?


Higher seed for ACC tournament...leads to....greater chance to win more ACC tourney games...leads to a crazy outside shot at the NCAA tournament...

And, obviously, it would help us if some non-ACC teams stumble down the stretch.

Even if we go the NIT, the higher we are seeded, the more of a chance we have to host games and advance.
 
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Hot Take Warning...There is no better draft pick for losing games and coming in last. So win...

With that said, the most important thing is to build/develop for the future and play the players who actually will be here in the future.
Serious question as I'm not sure where you stand or what you are implying... taking DJ vs Bev although yeah, not same position:

Playing talent potential Bev more minutes next game probably lessens our chances because he is so raw and has significant deficiencies, but they could probably be worked out with more game experience and bode well for the future...while DJ is polished and at times pours in the 3's just not so hot recently, and not particularly athletic or mobile...

Who would/should get more minutes NOW in your vision?
 
Serious question as I'm not sure where you stand or what you are implying... taking DJ vs Bev although yeah, not same position:

Playing talent potential Bev more minutes next game probably lessens our chances because he is so raw and has significant deficiencies, but they could probably be worked out with more game experience and bode well for the future...while DJ is polished and at times pours in the 3's just not so hot recently, and not particularly athletic or mobile...

Who would/should get more minutes NOW in your vision?

Obviously this assumes our guards are healthy.

My “vision” has been the same all year. Our strength is our guards. Play 4 guards at the same time the majority of the game. Since we only have 5 guards, there is plenty of time available.

Then make sure Walker gets consistent burn.

Lykes, DJ and Kam should each play ~30 MPG.

Wong and Bev should play ~25 MPG.

That is 140 minutes out of 160 assuming 4 guards the majority of the game). I would make sure Walker gets ~20 MPG too.
 
I don't know how popular this will be but I would rather see Miami in the NIT than the NCAA tournament.
I think Miami has a great chance at winning the NIT compared to a good to decent chance of making it out of the first round of the NCAA tournament.
This is how I feel today and this opinion is subject to change.
I will update everyone in two weeks.
 
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UPDATE: Assuming Miami win over Notre Dame today. Everything is predicated on winning out. I realize some people have written off our NCAA chances, but I'm going to hold out hope that winning 8 or 9 straight and getting healthy will get us some consideration (and we need other teams to lose as well).

Currently, there are 6 ACC postseason-eligible teams with either 7 or 8 ACC conference wins this year.

Obviously, Miami (7-10 ACC after beating ND) needs to win all 3 remaining games and thus finish 10-10 ACC. Remaining - @GaTech, UVa, and Syracuse. UVa will be the toughest game, though it is a home game.

If Miami gets to a 5 or 6 seed in the ACC, we would play a play-in team from the 10-14 seed range (GaTech is ineligible for the postseason). This would increase our chances of getting at least 1 tournament win. If we get to 5, a win would get us a rematch against UVa. Unfortunately, the 6 seed would force us to play Louisville, Duke, or F$U, all of whom have destroyed us this year, though we might have a shot at beating F$U given the rivalry nature of the game.

1. BC (7-10 ACC) - we don't need BC to lose again, as we have the tiebreaker over BC with our victory over them earlier in the season. Remaining games - Notre Dame, Syracuse, @F$U. Very likely to finish with 11 or more losses.
2. Notre Dame (7-9 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us the tiebreaker), we need Notre Dame to lose at least once more. Remaining - @BC, @Wake, FSU, VaTech. Very likely to finish with 10 or more losses.
3. Clemson (8-8 ACC) - we need Clemson to lose at least TWICE (we have the tiebreaker, as we beat them in our 1 game this year). Remaining - @GaTech, F$U, @VaTech, GaTech. Clemson will probably lose to F$U, thus we need help from one of GaTech(twice)/VaTech. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play GaTech and VaTech on the road.
4. Syracuse (8-8 ACC) - including a loss to Miami (which gives us the tiebreaker), we need Syracuse to lose at least once more. Remaining - @Pitt, UNC, @BC, @Miami. We need help from Pitt/UNC/BC. Likely (just barely) to finish with 10 or more losses, as they play Pitt and BC on the road, 2 teams with very comparable records.
5. NC State (8-8 ACC) - this one is **** near impossible. We need NC State to lose 3 out of 4 games, since they swept us this year. Remaining - @UNC, Pitt, @Duke, Wake. They are near-mortal locks over Wake, and would likely lose @Duke, meaning that we would ALSO need them to lose @UNC and at home to Pitt. UNC is a rivalry game, anything could happen. Losing at home to Pitt is unlikely. Therefore, the chances of all of these things happening is VERY UNLIKELY.

Likely to finish ahead of BC and ND.

Need help to finish ahead of Clemson and Syracuse.

Will be tough to finish ahead of NC State.

Overall, we have a fairly decent shot, ASSUMING WE WIN OUT, to get the 6th seed in the ACC tournament, with our biggest obstacle being Clemson, who needs to lose 2 of 4 to teams not named Miami. We would need major miracles to get the 5th seed, as NC State needs to lose 3 of 4 to non-Miami teams.

So, on Tuesday:

Root for UNC over NC State
Root for GaTech over Clemson

On Wednesday:

Root for Pitt over Syracuse
Root for BC over Notre Dame

On Saturday:

Root for Pitt over NC State
Root for F$U over Clemson
Root for UNC over Syracuse
Root for Wake over Notre Dame

And on Saturday, root for MIAMI over GaTech. Required.
 
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NIT bid is probably a pipe dream as well. Last year, the ACC had 2 teams get NIT bids - NC State and Clemson. Both finished 9-9 in conference.

If we win out our remaining regular season schedule, the best we can get is 9-11 in conference and 17-13 overall.

Given that, we'd have to win at least 2 in the ACCT to get to 11-12 in conference overall, and 19-14 overall. Clemson's resume going into the NIT last year was 9-9/19-13. NC State's was 9-9/22-11.

It's not unheard of, but it's a longshot at best right now. Last year's Clemson resume is the closest comparison, but we've got some work to do down the stretch to reach that.
 
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