A lot of the assumptions I am making regarding the deal being bad are based on the info you and
@Rellyrell have provided over the years. I’m in agreement that the money would have to be significantly higher.
I’d rock an inferior shirt at work every day if it came with an automatic 4 hours billed for me. The math just has to work out.
I know you’re stressing that the fix is in, but I just don’t see how the university leadership in its current iteration won’t seek the most optimal way of increasing revenue in this era of college football.
I'll address the last paragraph first.
As I have tried to make clear, the "apparel deal" might be the smallest (and hardest to jack up) of all the major revenue streams.
---I have specified that the "advertised price" of the contract (for conversational purposes, $90M over 10 years) is really about 1/3 cash money. Thus, if we got $3M per year (nothing to sneeze at), that is not all that much higher or lower than what comparable schools are getting, and it is not markedly different based on whether Nike or adidas offered that number. The ONLY thing that is variable is if you get a VERY HIGH (about 15%) royalty rate on the merch sales, and if that money is above-and-beyond your guarantee. Thus, sometimes the 15% royalty only kicks in once the royalty payouts EXCEED your guaranteed payout.
---I have specified that about 2/3 of the advertised price of the contract involves "in-kind" items such as equipment, uniforms, player-ediction clothng and shoes, in-kind marketing and co-branding, etc. And you don't have to take my word for it,
@Rellyrell has said the same and has seen the contracts with his own eyes.
Therefore, if you can impact your bottom line by THIRTY MILLION just by making the CFP finals once in 2026, that is "unbudgeted upside money" IN JUST ONE YEAR that equates to nearly the entire guaranteed payout from a 10-year apparel contract. I'm not trying to trash the apparel contracts, I'm just pointing out how much MORE money you can make from "success". And, you know, SELLING MORE TICKETS. The merch, while important to people LIKE US, is not what allows Miami to make a profit or loss in the Athletic Department.
As for the university leadership, I am not putting the blame solely on one element or one person. There has been a confluence of factors:
1. A 10-plus year history of mythmaking about "how badly Nike treated Miami" back when Beta Blake was the AD. I have tried to EXPLAIN, but never to make excuses. I wish that Nike had tried a little harder, but Beta Blake poisoned the well.
2. A growing association between the Mas brothers and adidas. And I'm not mad at Jose or Jorge, but it makes it very hard for anyone else to have a different viewpoint as to where we should be going here.
3. adidas FINALLY gets their **** together in Years 10 and 11 of a 12-year contract - between belated improvements to the uniforms, a brand-new and newfound commitment to Miami high schools and NIL generally, and a bit of lobbying directed towards certain individuals, suddenly everyone acts like adidas is the golden child. Meanwhile, where was that same energy 12 years ago, which was even more valid then in order to maintain a THIRTY-YEAR association that was the very first of its kind.
With a combo like that, it makes it look like all the momentum is on the side of adidas.
And "all I can argue" is evidence and facts.
---Look how adidas treated Miami previously. Sure, everyone warms up in a "contract year", but adidas treated Miami like crap for most of the contract.
---adidas has a history with schools NOT named Miami to show a lot of love up until contract signing, only to turn neglectful afterwards. LOTS of broken promises with adidas, and promotions/merchandise lines that were aborted. Remember "Fear of God"? How did that turn out? And I realize that not everyone has had my same experiences, but I saw this when adidas sponsored Dale Jr. in NASCAR. ****, I still have Dale Jr. adidas merch in my closet. adidas dumped THAT DEAL with rapidity.
---No matter how much money adidas throws at Miami, they are still a second-place company with a ****** roster of universities. "Oh, but they've got Tennessee and Pedo State now". Whatever.
People don't have to like what I say or agree with it, but it's the truth. And don't act like I don't wear adidas gear. I do, and I just did today. However, I no longer PURCHASE adidas gear. Once my old **** is gone, I'm done.
But I just bought two UM Nike polos on eBay.
