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Miami will win the National Championship

I like the thinking but I just don't see it. The Texas A&M game is going to be a very tough game. We are going against one of the best and smartest coaches in college, an extremely mobile QB, and a few wide receivers that can burn and catch. Not saying it can't be done but Mario is going to have to change his coaching style ( he has made adjustments), Beck needs to perform at a high level, penalties need to be held to a bare minimum, and Dawson needs to earn his salary. I'm certain the game plan for A&M will be to take Toney out of game with some double coverage. The ball needs to be spread out. GO CANES! I do believe if we get by A&M we can beat OSU.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
If we beat A&M, Taint, UGA, and either Indiana or Oregon, I will be in prison.
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To start this year i live Myrtle Beach SC i was working at this sports bqr this guy moved here from Ohio is a OSU fan has pics all around the bar with Urban, Justin Fields, Eddie George blah blah blah. Hes like wait till football season its lit the first OsU i was working everytime they did somethin there was a low level clap around the bar lmfao i was like wtf is this! Heard some guy one day tell em man i love osu i remember early 2000s when they beat Miami an im a chill dude... man my mf blood was boiling i wanted to fight everybody in that bih! I want Osu so i can go back to tthat bar and talk **** i wanna go watch it there an be the only Cane there talking my ****! I could run through a wall thibking about gettin back at OsU bring us those Mfs please! If our god **** team feels how i feel aint no way in **** they beat us its a Norte Dame 2017 type game! Man LfG its been wayyy to long im riding with these boys. Scott, Bain, Thomas, Mesidor yaaa. Beck has the Experience we got the Oline got the D why not this year!?
 
nickster said:
I like the thinking but I just don't see it. The Texas A&M game is going to be a very tough game. We are going against one of the best and smartest coaches in college, an extremely mobile QB, and a few wide receivers that can burn and catch. Not saying it can't be done but Mario is going to have to change his coaching style ( he has made adjustments), Beck needs to perform at a high level, penalties need to be held to a bare minimum, and Dawson needs to earn his salary. I'm certain the game plan for A&M will be to take Toney out of game with some double coverage. The ball needs to be spread out. GO CANES! I do believe if we get by A&M we can beat OSU.
Click to expand...
Texas A&M is a highly penalised team as well, they only have 1 fewer penalty than Miami lol. Miami has 91 on the season Texas A&M has 90.

Their RT is trash, Bain and Mesidor will have their way with him, and Reed is a turnover machine when under pressure. Over the last 5 games he committed 9 turnover worthy plays, that’s 4th worst in the nation.

Reed has been one of the worst QB over the last 5 games of the season with a whopping 57.3 PFF passing grade, that ranks him 99th among P4 QBs

They simply cannot stop outside runs, the exact running style Dawson has featured over the last four games with Pringle. Their DBs can’t tackle and their defensive ends are small. Those Pringle outside runs we saw against Syracuse and NC State will be available all game against these guys.




Their secondary is athletic but inconsistent and gives up lots of explosive plays. They have only faced 1 top 10 passing attack yet they have allowed 15 passing plays for at least 30 yards this season, that ranks 58th in the country.

They also feature one of the worst tackling secondaries in the nation. According to PFF cornerback Dezz Ricks has a missed tackle rate of 31.6 percent, 2nd worst amongst Power Four defensive backs and their safety Dalton Brooks has a missed tackle rate of 30.4 percent, which is fourth worst in the nation.

4 of their top 5 defensive backs have a missed tackle rate of 16 percent or higher. 15 percent is considered bad, so it’s safe to say their secondary can not tackle.

On the other hand Baby Jesus has 26 forced missed tackles on the season, 2nd most in the nation. They will not be able to take Tony away, they simply haven’t show that ability all season

Their Defense is suspect and their QB is a taller Thomas Castellanos with better weapons. If Miami plays Defense like the USF game and the first 3 quarters of the FSU game, Texas A&M won’t score more than 14 and Miami put at least 24 on their Defense.
 
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TheShredder said:
@insaneinthecane we arent facings **** acc defebses. ND took him away once they put their best corner on him.
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That’s a fair statement and a valid point. But that was the first game of the season. Toney’s role has changed quite a bit since then. Toney had a great game vs ND. No doubt about it but his current role in this offense is night and day compared to how he was being used in the first game of the season.

Toney has literally morphed into a Swiss Army knife on offense as the season has progressed and he’s going to be a problem for every defense we face moving forwards.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
If we beat A&M, Taint, UGA, and either Indiana or Oregon, I will be in prison.
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Screenshot GIF
 
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Hstokes1447 said:
I’m honestly at the point where I’m no longer asking if Miami can win the national championship — I’m asking who exactly is supposed to stop them if they keep playing the way they’ve played over the last month.

This isn’t blind optimism or Canes goggles. This is pattern recognition.

Every year in the College Football Playoff era, the same thing happens: a team peaks late, gets healthy, checks all the structural boxes, and enters December looking nothing like it did in September - October. Those teams don’t just make noise, they usually end the season holding the trophy.

Right now, Miami looks exactly like that team.

Late-Season Momentum Matters More Than Anything​

If you go back through the CFP era (2014–present), one trend shows up again and again: teams that dominate the final month of the regular season almost always outperform everyone else in the playoff.

LSU in 2019. Ohio State in 2014. Georgia in 2021 and 2022. None of them were crowned in September. They separated themselves in November. The playoff doesn’t reward early flash — it rewards teams that are playing their best football right now.

That’s why Miami’s final four games matter so much.

The Final Four Games: The Turning Point​

Down the stretch, Miami didn’t just win — they imposed their will.

Over the last four regular-season games, Miami outscored Syracuse, NC State, Pittsburgh, and another opponent 158–41, a +117 margin. That’s not scraping by. That’s domination.

Teams that enter the CFP with multiple blowout wins, elite defensive metrics, and a clear identity almost always advance — and many win it all.

Miami finished the regular season ranked:

  • 7th nationally in scoring defense
  • 9th nationally in total defense
  • Top-tier in offensive efficiency and explosiveness
  • 2nd in the ACC in scoring offense
That combination — explosive offense, elite defense, dominant margins — is the championship blueprint.

Offense: Balance, Protection, and Star Power​

Blue-chip profile

  • Total offensive players: 40
  • Blue chips: 23
  • Blue-chip ratio: 57%
Every national champion since 2016 has been above 50 percent. Miami fits the profile exactly.

Quarterback + elite protection

Carson Beck doesn’t need to be Superman. He needs to be calm, efficient, and protected — and Miami gives him that better than anyone in the country.

According to PFF, Beck has operated from a clean pocket on 85.3% of his drop-backs, the best mark in the nation. That’s not a random stat — that’s a championship indicator.

Recent title teams:

  • 2020 Alabama: 81.1%
  • 2022 Georgia: 81.2%
Those lines were stacked with future NFL players. Miami’s line is trending the same way.

Francis Mauigoa is the centerpiece:
  • First-Team All-ACC
  • First-Team On3 All-America
  • First-Team CBS Sports All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
That’s national dominance at the most important position group in football.

He’s backed by:
  • James Brockermeyer — Third-Team All-ACC, First-Team CBS Sports All-America
  • Anez Cooper — Second-Team All-ACC
  • Markel Bell — Third-Team All-ACC
This is a playoff-caliber offensive line, full stop.


Skill positions

Then there’s Malachi Toney — whose resume honestly doesn’t look real:
  • First-Team PFF All-America
  • CBS Sports Freshman of the Year
  • ACC Rookie of the Year
  • ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • On3 Offensive True Freshman of the Year
  • Multiple First- and Second-Team All-ACC and All-America selections
Add a three-back rotation led by Mark Fletcher (Third-Team All-ACC) and veteran depth everywhere, and this offense is built to survive playoff attrition.

Defense: Where Championships Are Actually Won​

Blue-chip density
  • Total defensive players: 45
  • Blue chips: 29
  • Blue-chip ratio: 64%
That’s championship-level talent concentration.

A game-wrecking defensive line

According to PFF, Miami’s pass rush grades out at 91.8, second in the country. That puts them right in line with recent champions like Michigan (2023) and Georgia (2021).

What separates Miami is depth. Championship defenses don’t rely on one guy — they come in waves. Miami enters the playoff with five defensive linemen who have 20+ pressures:
  • Rueben Bain — 58
  • Akheem Mesidor — 44
  • Ahmad Moten — 24
  • Armondo Blount — 23
  • Marquise Lightfoot — 23
That’s elite.

Bain alone has stacked national honors:
  • First-Team PFF All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
  • Additional All-America selections across multiple outlets
This defense doesn’t just slow teams down — it breaks game plans.

Miami allowed 41 total points over the final four games. That level of late-season defensive control is one of the strongest predictors of CFP success.


Team Health Heading Into the Playoff​

This part matters more than people realize.

Miami is entering the playoff healthier than most teams. Nearly all contributors are trending toward full availability.

The lone notable injury is Keionte Scott, who suffered turf toe on November 1st vs. SMU. Turf toe is a sprain of the big toe joint that impacts push-off and lateral movement — especially tough for DBs. Typical recovery timelines range 6–10 weeks.

Scott is rehabbing and currently running with a boot. Based on standard timelines:

  • Best case: available by the Texas A&M game
  • Worst case: available by the third playoff game
Even if he returns later, Miami has enough depth to manage until he’s fully right.

​

Miami Checks Every Championship Box​

Every CFP champion shares the same traits:
  • Elite defensive front
  • Efficient, explosive offense
  • High-level quarterback play
  • Dominant final-month performance
  • Blue-chip roster depth
  • Award-winning playmakers
  • Strong offensive and defensive lines
  • Momentum entering the postseason
Miami checks all eight.

They also bring 19 All-ACC selections, with All-Americans across offense, defense, and special teams.

All-Conference and All-Americans​

Francis Mauigoa – Offensive Tackle
  • First-Team All-ACC
  • First-Team On3 College Football All-America
  • First-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
Rueben Bain Jr. – Defensive End
  • First-Team PFF College Football All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
  • Second-Team On3 College Football All-America
  • Second-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
Malachi Toney – Wide Receiver / All-Purpose
  • First-Team PFF College Football All-America
  • Second-Team CBS Sports College Football All-America (All-Purpose)
  • CBS Sports Freshman of the Year
  • 2025 CBS Sports CFB Freshman of the Year
  • ACC Rookie of the Year
  • ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • On3 Offensive True Freshman of the Year
  • First-Team All-ACC (Wide Receiver)
  • Second-Team All-ACC (All-Purpose)
  • AP All-ACC First Team (All-Purpose)
  • AP All-ACC Second Team (Wide Receiver)
  • AP ACC Freshman of the Year
  • PFF Freshman All-American (WR)
  • PFF Freshman of the Year
James Brockermeyer – Center
  • Third-Team All-ACC
  • First-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
Keionte Scott – Cornerback
  • Second-Team All-ACC
  • Second-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
Jakobe Thomas – Safety
  • Second-Team On3 College Football All-America
  • Second-Team All-ACC
Akheem Mesidor – Defensive End
  • First-Team All-ACC
Ahmad Moten – Defensive Tackle
  • Second-Team All-ACC
Anez Cooper – Offensive Guard
  • Second-Team All-ACC
Carson Beck – Quarterback
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Mark Fletcher – Running Back
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Markel Bell – Offensive Tackle
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Wesley Bissainthe – Linebacker
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Honorable Mention All-ACC
  • David Blay Jr. – Defensive Tackle
  • Mohamed Toure – Linebacker
  • Damari Brown – Cornerback
  • Zechariah Poyser – Safety
  • Keelan Marion – Special Teams

The Bottom Line​

Miami is already in the College Football Playoff.
Miami is peaking at the right time.
Miami has elite talent, elite defense, balance on offense, dominant line play, and health trending the right way.

If Miami plays the way they played over the final four games of the regular season, they will win the national championship this season.

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This reminds me of the college baseball world series where on any given year at least half of the teams are very capable of winning the entire thing. It often comes down to injuries and luck. For example, we won at least one title in the 1980s where we not the most talented team. We beat a MissState team that had Wil Clark, Rafael Palmiero, Bobby Thigpen, among others. Conversely, our squads in the mid-late 1990s were loaded to the gills but didn't win it all. Teams get hit or cold. Our boys have a realistic shot at winning it all or flopping in the first game. That's how it works.
 
We have a great young receiver but the receiver group as a whole lacks that true vertical threat. Whether that’s because of Beck or the receivers idk.
But it’s gonna be exposed or proven not true either by Tamu or Ohio state.

The margin of error is getting razor thin and we are gonna play the teams and d coordinators that have the talent to expose your weaknesses.
 
OL’s
pacusmc said:
We have a great young receiver but the receiver group as a whole lacks that true vertical threat. Whether that’s because of Beck or the receivers idk.
But it’s gonna be exposed or proven not true either by Tamu or Ohio state.

The margin of error is getting razor thin and we are gonna play the teams and d coordinators that have the talent to expose your weaknesses.
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we lack explosive players so we’ll be forced to drive the ball. If we’re making a run the penalties will be the deciding factor. That and Beck playing clean football. Which ever OL holds up the best wins.
 
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nickster said:
I like the thinking but I just don't see it. The Texas A&M game is going to be a very tough game. We are going against one of the best and smartest coaches in college, an extremely mobile QB, and a few wide receivers that can burn and catch. Not saying it can't be done but Mario is going to have to change his coaching style ( he has made adjustments), Beck needs to perform at a high level, penalties need to be held to a bare minimum, and Dawson needs to earn his salary. I'm certain the game plan for A&M will be to take Toney out of game with some double coverage. The ball needs to be spread out. GO CANES! I do believe if we get by A&M we can beat OSU.
Click to expand...
I was surfing around some YouTube stuff this morning and came across a Buckeye podcast. They were ranking and analyzing the other 11 teams in terms of difficulty for OSU to beat. They started at 11 and went to #6 on the first part of the podcast. Those teams included Tulane, JMU, Bama, Ol Miss, OU and A&M. Miami must fall in the hardest 5; that is on part 2 tomorrow.

They went through a whole range of criteria included in the evaluation. Curious to see what order the final 5 fall in: Miami, Oregon, UGA, Indian and Texas Tech are the schools left to evaluate.
 
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Hstokes1447 said:
I’m honestly at the point where I’m no longer asking if Miami can win the national championship — I’m asking who exactly is supposed to stop them if they keep playing the way they’ve played over the last month.

This isn’t blind optimism or Canes goggles. This is pattern recognition.

Every year in the College Football Playoff era, the same thing happens: a team peaks late, gets healthy, checks all the structural boxes, and enters December looking nothing like it did in September - October. Those teams don’t just make noise, they usually end the season holding the trophy.

Right now, Miami looks exactly like that team.

Late-Season Momentum Matters More Than Anything​

If you go back through the CFP era (2014–present), one trend shows up again and again: teams that dominate the final month of the regular season almost always outperform everyone else in the playoff.

LSU in 2019. Ohio State in 2014. Georgia in 2021 and 2022. None of them were crowned in September. They separated themselves in November. The playoff doesn’t reward early flash — it rewards teams that are playing their best football right now.

That’s why Miami’s final four games matter so much.

The Final Four Games: The Turning Point​

Down the stretch, Miami didn’t just win — they imposed their will.

Over the last four regular-season games, Miami outscored Syracuse, NC State, Pittsburgh, and another opponent 158–41, a +117 margin. That’s not scraping by. That’s domination.

Teams that enter the CFP with multiple blowout wins, elite defensive metrics, and a clear identity almost always advance — and many win it all.

Miami finished the regular season ranked:

  • 7th nationally in scoring defense
  • 9th nationally in total defense
  • Top-tier in offensive efficiency and explosiveness
  • 2nd in the ACC in scoring offense
That combination — explosive offense, elite defense, dominant margins — is the championship blueprint.

Offense: Balance, Protection, and Star Power​

Blue-chip profile

  • Total offensive players: 40
  • Blue chips: 23
  • Blue-chip ratio: 57%
Every national champion since 2016 has been above 50 percent. Miami fits the profile exactly.

Quarterback + elite protection

Carson Beck doesn’t need to be Superman. He needs to be calm, efficient, and protected — and Miami gives him that better than anyone in the country.

According to PFF, Beck has operated from a clean pocket on 85.3% of his drop-backs, the best mark in the nation. That’s not a random stat — that’s a championship indicator.

Recent title teams:

  • 2020 Alabama: 81.1%
  • 2022 Georgia: 81.2%
Those lines were stacked with future NFL players. Miami’s line is trending the same way.

Francis Mauigoa is the centerpiece:
  • First-Team All-ACC
  • First-Team On3 All-America
  • First-Team CBS Sports All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
That’s national dominance at the most important position group in football.

He’s backed by:
  • James Brockermeyer — Third-Team All-ACC, First-Team CBS Sports All-America
  • Anez Cooper — Second-Team All-ACC
  • Markel Bell — Third-Team All-ACC
This is a playoff-caliber offensive line, full stop.


Skill positions

Then there’s Malachi Toney — whose resume honestly doesn’t look real:
  • First-Team PFF All-America
  • CBS Sports Freshman of the Year
  • ACC Rookie of the Year
  • ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • On3 Offensive True Freshman of the Year
  • Multiple First- and Second-Team All-ACC and All-America selections
Add a three-back rotation led by Mark Fletcher (Third-Team All-ACC) and veteran depth everywhere, and this offense is built to survive playoff attrition.

Defense: Where Championships Are Actually Won​

Blue-chip density
  • Total defensive players: 45
  • Blue chips: 29
  • Blue-chip ratio: 64%
That’s championship-level talent concentration.

A game-wrecking defensive line

According to PFF, Miami’s pass rush grades out at 91.8, second in the country. That puts them right in line with recent champions like Michigan (2023) and Georgia (2021).

What separates Miami is depth. Championship defenses don’t rely on one guy — they come in waves. Miami enters the playoff with five defensive linemen who have 20+ pressures:
  • Rueben Bain — 58
  • Akheem Mesidor — 44
  • Ahmad Moten — 24
  • Armondo Blount — 23
  • Marquise Lightfoot — 23
That’s elite.

Bain alone has stacked national honors:
  • First-Team PFF All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
  • Additional All-America selections across multiple outlets
This defense doesn’t just slow teams down — it breaks game plans.

Miami allowed 41 total points over the final four games. That level of late-season defensive control is one of the strongest predictors of CFP success.


Team Health Heading Into the Playoff​

This part matters more than people realize.

Miami is entering the playoff healthier than most teams. Nearly all contributors are trending toward full availability.

The lone notable injury is Keionte Scott, who suffered turf toe on November 1st vs. SMU. Turf toe is a sprain of the big toe joint that impacts push-off and lateral movement — especially tough for DBs. Typical recovery timelines range 6–10 weeks.

Scott is rehabbing and currently running with a boot. Based on standard timelines:

  • Best case: available by the Texas A&M game
  • Worst case: available by the third playoff game
Even if he returns later, Miami has enough depth to manage until he’s fully right.

​

Miami Checks Every Championship Box​

Every CFP champion shares the same traits:
  • Elite defensive front
  • Efficient, explosive offense
  • High-level quarterback play
  • Dominant final-month performance
  • Blue-chip roster depth
  • Award-winning playmakers
  • Strong offensive and defensive lines
  • Momentum entering the postseason
Miami checks all eight.

They also bring 19 All-ACC selections, with All-Americans across offense, defense, and special teams.

All-Conference and All-Americans​

Francis Mauigoa – Offensive Tackle
  • First-Team All-ACC
  • First-Team On3 College Football All-America
  • First-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
Rueben Bain Jr. – Defensive End
  • First-Team PFF College Football All-America
  • First-Team Walter Camp All-America
  • Second-Team On3 College Football All-America
  • Second-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
Malachi Toney – Wide Receiver / All-Purpose
  • First-Team PFF College Football All-America
  • Second-Team CBS Sports College Football All-America (All-Purpose)
  • CBS Sports Freshman of the Year
  • 2025 CBS Sports CFB Freshman of the Year
  • ACC Rookie of the Year
  • ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • On3 Offensive True Freshman of the Year
  • First-Team All-ACC (Wide Receiver)
  • Second-Team All-ACC (All-Purpose)
  • AP All-ACC First Team (All-Purpose)
  • AP All-ACC Second Team (Wide Receiver)
  • AP ACC Freshman of the Year
  • PFF Freshman All-American (WR)
  • PFF Freshman of the Year
James Brockermeyer – Center
  • Third-Team All-ACC
  • First-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
Keionte Scott – Cornerback
  • Second-Team All-ACC
  • Second-Team CBS Sports 2025 College Football All-America
Jakobe Thomas – Safety
  • Second-Team On3 College Football All-America
  • Second-Team All-ACC
Akheem Mesidor – Defensive End
  • First-Team All-ACC
Ahmad Moten – Defensive Tackle
  • Second-Team All-ACC
Anez Cooper – Offensive Guard
  • Second-Team All-ACC
Carson Beck – Quarterback
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Mark Fletcher – Running Back
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Markel Bell – Offensive Tackle
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Wesley Bissainthe – Linebacker
  • Third-Team All-ACC
Honorable Mention All-ACC
  • David Blay Jr. – Defensive Tackle
  • Mohamed Toure – Linebacker
  • Damari Brown – Cornerback
  • Zechariah Poyser – Safety
  • Keelan Marion – Special Teams

The Bottom Line​

Miami is already in the College Football Playoff.
Miami is peaking at the right time.
Miami has elite talent, elite defense, balance on offense, dominant line play, and health trending the right way.

If Miami plays the way they played over the final four games of the regular season, they will win the national championship this season.

Click to expand...

You can’t just take the last 4 games as a metric for a reliable argument. Why not the last 5? Oh…
 
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