Klamalama
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From Football Study Hall. See probability graph, charts, and article, below
Miami 36, Nebraska 33: Stop kneeling the clock out, coaches - Football Study Hall
In regard to the play bolded above ... STOP ELECTING TO KNEEL WITH SO MUCH TIME REMAINING, COLLEGE COACHES. No, Miami didn't have any timeouts left (and I don't believe the play-by-play data we receive includes timeouts, so Matt's probability tool can't do anything about that), so maybe the Hurricanes' real win probability wasn't quite 61.9%. Maybe it was only about 55%.
But like when I stay at 15 on blackjack even when the odds are slightly in my favor -- yes, I'm a chicken, just like the coaches I'm calling chickens -- coaches are forgoing odds out of fear more than reality (i.e. fear of what happened to Kansas City against Denver last week). But the worst-case scenario doesn't actually happen very often. You've got an awesome young QB and a fun receiving corps. Give them a chance to win the game.
Basically, the projected scoring margin is saying "Surely Miami didn't blow that many scoring chances..." Alas, they did! Going 5-for-5 on field goals is a lovely accomplishment for any college kicker ... but asking him to kick five field goals is an admission of failure. But first-and-goal from the 1 turned into fourth down from the 6. First-and-goal from the 8 turned into fourth down from the 10. Third-and-1 from the 19 turned into fourth-and-6 from the 24.
And then, of course, the Hurricanes asked Michael Badgley to kick a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the 11, up 30-10, even though a touchdown would have completely put the game out of reach.
There's risk involved in going for it, and I don't really blame Al Golden and company for not being confident in their ability gain one yard on fourth-and-1 ... but fourth-and-1 odds are always in an offense's favor. Miami dropped the dagger in like four different ways, and then Nebraska's offense found a rhythm against a depleted secondary late.
Miami 36, Nebraska 33: Stop kneeling the clock out, coaches - Football Study Hall
In regard to the play bolded above ... STOP ELECTING TO KNEEL WITH SO MUCH TIME REMAINING, COLLEGE COACHES. No, Miami didn't have any timeouts left (and I don't believe the play-by-play data we receive includes timeouts, so Matt's probability tool can't do anything about that), so maybe the Hurricanes' real win probability wasn't quite 61.9%. Maybe it was only about 55%.
But like when I stay at 15 on blackjack even when the odds are slightly in my favor -- yes, I'm a chicken, just like the coaches I'm calling chickens -- coaches are forgoing odds out of fear more than reality (i.e. fear of what happened to Kansas City against Denver last week). But the worst-case scenario doesn't actually happen very often. You've got an awesome young QB and a fun receiving corps. Give them a chance to win the game.
Basically, the projected scoring margin is saying "Surely Miami didn't blow that many scoring chances..." Alas, they did! Going 5-for-5 on field goals is a lovely accomplishment for any college kicker ... but asking him to kick five field goals is an admission of failure. But first-and-goal from the 1 turned into fourth down from the 6. First-and-goal from the 8 turned into fourth down from the 10. Third-and-1 from the 19 turned into fourth-and-6 from the 24.
And then, of course, the Hurricanes asked Michael Badgley to kick a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the 11, up 30-10, even though a touchdown would have completely put the game out of reach.
There's risk involved in going for it, and I don't really blame Al Golden and company for not being confident in their ability gain one yard on fourth-and-1 ... but fourth-and-1 odds are always in an offense's favor. Miami dropped the dagger in like four different ways, and then Nebraska's offense found a rhythm against a depleted secondary late.
