Reyrey
Sophomore
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2020
- Messages
- 1,054
Here’s a look at some numbers of Miami Vs UL. The right column “Vs UL” is them on the other side of the ball. So points per game. Miami scores 29.0 ranking 47th and UL gives up 19.0 ranking 18th.
Big game for the Canes, obviously. I think this game has such big impacts for the off-season and momentum going into the recruiting and portal and etc. Despite last weeks loss, there doesn’t seem to be this negative energy around the team and recruiting like previously. Almost like a TBD. Well, Saturday is perfect chance to make a statement and say “progress is still very much real”. Louisville is a top 10 team. And by the numbers, they do a lot of things good. But make no mistake about it. We can win this game. Vegas seems to thinks so too. As of 11/14, the line is Miami +1. I’ve seen +2 and a pickem. All the analytics show this as a pickem essentially. 1 interesting nugget, from what I have seen, the vast majority of the money and bets are on Louisville. Around 90%. Top 10 team playing 6-4 Miami and only 1 point favorite?! That’s fishy. Vegas doesn’t loose money, do as you will with that info.
For Louisville, defensively, they are similar to us and our 2 recent opponents (NCSU, FSU) but the numbers. I do think they present more opportunities for our Offense than the others in a few areas. Specially through the air. They should be easier to pass around than FSU and NC State. Specifically in big plays. Their rush D is top 10. But I said this in other breakdowns, I don’t worry about our rush offense. We should be able to move the ball, the key will be our balance of the two. The biggest areas where we will be challenged and need to step up are in the red zone and 3rd down. Need to stay ahead of schedule. If we are in 3rd and longs all afternoon, expect a long day. 2nd in the nation in red zone defense. Dawson and Co need to copy and paste AM red zone game plan.
On offense, they are a good unit. More so through the air. A lot of chunk plays. I think where we can find success is making them be a more methodical offense. They struggle on 3rd down (85th). They are 71st in the country in sacks allowed and one of the worst in the country in the red zone and FG%. If we eliminate long touchdowns, which we have all year, they need to grind out drives and convert in the redzone or FG. The numbers show they are not great in doing so.
Louisville without the Numbers
Louisville SOS and Home/Away. They have played a lighter schedule. Their toughest games were to ND and a Duke team with Leonard on 1 foot. Both at home. In fact, Lousiville has only played 2 true road games. At NC State. And At Pitt. The were down 10 at half to NC State and came back to win with 13 unanswered (13-10). They gave up 24 unanswered to Pitt in the second half and lost 38-21. Common opponents, it took a 17-3 4th quarter against UVA to win by a touchdown. GT was the first game of the year so not holding too much weight. But, that also took a fourth quarter comeback to win by 5. The moral of the story here, they are without a doubt beatable, especially on the road where the are unproven. Another nugget, Miami has one of the better scoring margins in the 4th quarter in all of football.
The elephant in the room
You guessed it, TVD. I’m not discussing if him or JB was that right move. That’s arbitrary and up for personal debate. What’s not, the weight this game has for TVD and his career. If the kid wants to play competitive football at a high level, it’s most likely not here in 24. But I can almost guarantee, these last couple games will impact where he plays. I’m not at all holding my breath or saying we get early season TVD. But I won’t over look that underlying factor and how it may motivate him personally. A lot of QBs across the country have taken a seat on the bench and come back in to be productive players. I’m not saying he’s these players, he’s not. But Milroe, Bean at Kansas, Armstrong at NC State, the UVA freshman in an out of the line up. There’s a lot of these scenarios. What happened to Tyler can be Humbling. Let’s see how he responds. Will he throw for 300 and 4 TD and 0 int. No. But if he is serviceable and doesn’t turn it over 5 times, I think we all agree we could have won every game we played here. Let’s see how that shakes out. We will know early.
Key Factors
- Offensively, broken record of not turning it over, but that’s a given. TVD, JB, a walk on, whoever, we have to make plays in the air. Our WR are not elite, but good. We have seen JG and Young make big plays. Have to take shots. Let the run game do what it’s been doing, but mix in shots. It’s not like we aren’t capable, we are. We have to do it. We need to play complimentary on offense. Last chance to get recruits to the game. They see the same stuff we see. If they see some more creativity, deep shots, spreading the ball, that will go miles in recruiting. No reason to hold anything back now.
-Defensivly, eliminate big touchdowns. We have done good in those regards. Pressure the qb and make them turn out long methodical drives. They aren’t good on 3rd down, aren’t good in the red zone, and don’t convert FG effectively. They don’t have big touchdowns, they don’t hit 30.
- Team. Continue the progress. I mentioned it in here: https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/key-stats-heading-into-lousiville.188588/post-6888842
But we have to create momentum. Have to bounce back and have things roll our way. The team has responded and fought hard multiples times. Saturday is no different and expect the team to continue to show that culture and fight growth. But have to find a way to win.
A win against a top 10 team, on the national landscape, now at 7-4, will write a lot of wrongs from this season. It’s about as “must win” as it gets. No more moral victories. The fans know what we need for the roster for 2024. The coaches do to. The best way to get it, a win on a Saturday.
Canes 27-24.
| Category | Miami | Vs UL | UL Category | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 29.0 (47th) | 19 (18th) | Opp Points Per Game | ||
| Opp. Points per Game | 22.2 (38th) | 30.1 (42nd) | Points Per Game | ||
| Total Offense YPG | 409.7 (43rd) | 315 (16th) | Defense YPG | ||
| Offense Yards Per Play | 6.0 (32nd) | 4.9 (29th) | Defense YPP | ||
| Pass Rating | 136.3 (56th) | 123.5 (34th) | Def Pass Rating | ||
| Pass O | 245.2 (49th) | 223.3 (47th) | Def Pas O | ||
| Yards Per Att | 7.5 (55th) | 7.2 (59th) | Def Yards Per Att | ||
| Rush O | 164.4 (50th) | 91.7 (10th) | Def Rush O | ||
| Yards per Cary | 4.8 (26th) | 3.0 (9th) | Def Yards Per Cary | ||
| Red Zone O | 84.85% (61st) | 66.67 (2nd) | Def Ref Zone | ||
| Sacks Allowed | 1.3 (20th) | 2.7 (28th) | Def Sacks | ||
| TFL Allowed | 4.8 (33rd) | 6.2 (39th) | Def TFL | ||
| Completion % | 63.51 (38th) | 55.91 (16th) | Def Comp % | ||
| 3rd Down O % | 37.93 (67th) | 28.57 (9th) | Def 3rd down | ||
| Total Defense YPG | 328.9 (25th) | 412.7 (40th) | Offense YPG | ||
| Defensive YPP | 4.9 (26th) | 6.2 (24th) | Off YPP | ||
| Passer Rating | 122.1 (30th) | 154.5 (18th) | Off Passer Rtg | ||
| TFL | 7.7 (8th) | 4.9 (38th) | Off TFL Allowed | ||
| Sacks | 3.1 (11th) | 2.2 (71st) | Off Sacks Allowed | ||
| Rush D | 91.9 (11th) | 172.1 (43rd) | Rush O | ||
| Yards per Cary | 3.0 (6th) | 4.7 (35th) | Off ypc | ||
| Red Zone D % | 86.11 (81st) | 76.67 (104th) | Red Zone O | ||
| Pass D | 237 (74th) | 240.6 (55th) | Pass O | ||
| Yards Per Attempt | 7.1 (51st) | 8.9 (18th) | Off ypa | ||
| Completion % | 55.63 (12th) | 65.02 (27th) | Off Completion% | ||
| 3rd Down D % | 33.59 (25th) |
| Off 3rd Down | ||
| Penalty Yards Per Game | 66 (120th) | 50.6 (66th) | Penalty Yards perfect game | ||
| Avg TOP | 31:49 (22nd) | 31:2 (34th) | Avg TOP | ||
| Turnover Margin | -.6 (106th) | +.6 (24th) | Turnover Margin | ||
| FG% | 86.36 (19th) | 70 (85th) | FG % | ||
| Avg Scoring Margin | +6.8 (34th) | +11.1 (21st) | Avg Scoring Margin |
Big game for the Canes, obviously. I think this game has such big impacts for the off-season and momentum going into the recruiting and portal and etc. Despite last weeks loss, there doesn’t seem to be this negative energy around the team and recruiting like previously. Almost like a TBD. Well, Saturday is perfect chance to make a statement and say “progress is still very much real”. Louisville is a top 10 team. And by the numbers, they do a lot of things good. But make no mistake about it. We can win this game. Vegas seems to thinks so too. As of 11/14, the line is Miami +1. I’ve seen +2 and a pickem. All the analytics show this as a pickem essentially. 1 interesting nugget, from what I have seen, the vast majority of the money and bets are on Louisville. Around 90%. Top 10 team playing 6-4 Miami and only 1 point favorite?! That’s fishy. Vegas doesn’t loose money, do as you will with that info.
For Louisville, defensively, they are similar to us and our 2 recent opponents (NCSU, FSU) but the numbers. I do think they present more opportunities for our Offense than the others in a few areas. Specially through the air. They should be easier to pass around than FSU and NC State. Specifically in big plays. Their rush D is top 10. But I said this in other breakdowns, I don’t worry about our rush offense. We should be able to move the ball, the key will be our balance of the two. The biggest areas where we will be challenged and need to step up are in the red zone and 3rd down. Need to stay ahead of schedule. If we are in 3rd and longs all afternoon, expect a long day. 2nd in the nation in red zone defense. Dawson and Co need to copy and paste AM red zone game plan.
On offense, they are a good unit. More so through the air. A lot of chunk plays. I think where we can find success is making them be a more methodical offense. They struggle on 3rd down (85th). They are 71st in the country in sacks allowed and one of the worst in the country in the red zone and FG%. If we eliminate long touchdowns, which we have all year, they need to grind out drives and convert in the redzone or FG. The numbers show they are not great in doing so.
Louisville without the Numbers
Louisville SOS and Home/Away. They have played a lighter schedule. Their toughest games were to ND and a Duke team with Leonard on 1 foot. Both at home. In fact, Lousiville has only played 2 true road games. At NC State. And At Pitt. The were down 10 at half to NC State and came back to win with 13 unanswered (13-10). They gave up 24 unanswered to Pitt in the second half and lost 38-21. Common opponents, it took a 17-3 4th quarter against UVA to win by a touchdown. GT was the first game of the year so not holding too much weight. But, that also took a fourth quarter comeback to win by 5. The moral of the story here, they are without a doubt beatable, especially on the road where the are unproven. Another nugget, Miami has one of the better scoring margins in the 4th quarter in all of football.
The elephant in the room
You guessed it, TVD. I’m not discussing if him or JB was that right move. That’s arbitrary and up for personal debate. What’s not, the weight this game has for TVD and his career. If the kid wants to play competitive football at a high level, it’s most likely not here in 24. But I can almost guarantee, these last couple games will impact where he plays. I’m not at all holding my breath or saying we get early season TVD. But I won’t over look that underlying factor and how it may motivate him personally. A lot of QBs across the country have taken a seat on the bench and come back in to be productive players. I’m not saying he’s these players, he’s not. But Milroe, Bean at Kansas, Armstrong at NC State, the UVA freshman in an out of the line up. There’s a lot of these scenarios. What happened to Tyler can be Humbling. Let’s see how he responds. Will he throw for 300 and 4 TD and 0 int. No. But if he is serviceable and doesn’t turn it over 5 times, I think we all agree we could have won every game we played here. Let’s see how that shakes out. We will know early.
Key Factors
- Offensively, broken record of not turning it over, but that’s a given. TVD, JB, a walk on, whoever, we have to make plays in the air. Our WR are not elite, but good. We have seen JG and Young make big plays. Have to take shots. Let the run game do what it’s been doing, but mix in shots. It’s not like we aren’t capable, we are. We have to do it. We need to play complimentary on offense. Last chance to get recruits to the game. They see the same stuff we see. If they see some more creativity, deep shots, spreading the ball, that will go miles in recruiting. No reason to hold anything back now.
-Defensivly, eliminate big touchdowns. We have done good in those regards. Pressure the qb and make them turn out long methodical drives. They aren’t good on 3rd down, aren’t good in the red zone, and don’t convert FG effectively. They don’t have big touchdowns, they don’t hit 30.
- Team. Continue the progress. I mentioned it in here: https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/key-stats-heading-into-lousiville.188588/post-6888842
But we have to create momentum. Have to bounce back and have things roll our way. The team has responded and fought hard multiples times. Saturday is no different and expect the team to continue to show that culture and fight growth. But have to find a way to win.
A win against a top 10 team, on the national landscape, now at 7-4, will write a lot of wrongs from this season. It’s about as “must win” as it gets. No more moral victories. The fans know what we need for the roster for 2024. The coaches do to. The best way to get it, a win on a Saturday.
Canes 27-24.
