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Miami/uf setting up like the ND game...

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5XNC

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From 2017. Going to be big underdogs, disrespected. Manny will have these guys like rabid animals coming out for the game. The attacking pressure he’s gonna put on their offense and turnovers he’ll create will have us celebrating often and early in the stands.

UM historically does well in these games and manny will play it up as well as anyone...
 
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I seriously doubt we're big underdogs come gametime. Line last I saw at 8.5 is based on discounting the unknown (our new staff). It will move in our favor.
 
5XNC said:
From 2017. Going to be big underdogs, disrespected. Manny will have these guys like rabid animals coming out for the game. The attacking pressure he’s gonna put on their offense and turnovers he’ll create will have us celebrating often and early in the stands.

UM historically does well in these games and manny will play it up as well as anyone...
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In the last 15 years, UM historically hasn’t done well in these games. ND and Florida are apples and oranges. The majority of the fans will be in their favor. Also, I don’t think we were +8.5 vs. ND.

That being said, I hope you’re right with the results. A victory vs. Florida and FSU would do wonders to this program. I plan on being there for both.
 
Hurracanes said:
In the last 15 years, UM historically hasn’t done well in these games. ND and Florida are apples and oranges. The majority of the fans will be in their favor. Also, I don’t think we were +8.5 vs. ND.

That being said, I hope you’re right with the results. A victory vs. Florida and FSU would do wonders to this program. I plan on being there for both.
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What do you mean by "these games?"

The out of conference against a real program in the regular season games?
 
CashMoneyCane said:
I seriously doubt we're big underdogs come gametime. Line last I saw at 8.5 is based on discounting the unknown (our new staff). It will move in our favor.
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I could be wrong but, isn’t the opening line what matters? And it only moves towards what people are betting?
 
CanesLifer2 said:
I could be wrong but, isn’t the opening line what matters? And it only moves towards what people are betting?
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I'm not a gambler, but what matters is what you get in at. The line moves and you bet on the line where it is when you place your bet.

Shouldn't be any different than a stock price.
 
For sure, also, they have no film on any schemes offensively or defensively, all they have is past schemes from past teams, and what manny ran the last few years, but I expect that to have some new wrinkles
 
CashMoneyCane said:
I'm not a gambler, but what matters is what you get in at. The line moves and you bet on the line where it is when you place your bet.

Shouldn't be any different than a stock price.
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Thought so, I only play blackjack and poker, no sports gambling for me, I’m too biased lol
 
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CanesLifer2 said:
I could be wrong but, isn’t the opening line what matters? And it only moves towards what people are betting?
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No, it's the closing line that matters. That tells you how the sharps moved the number. Obviously not all lines are created equal and you really should only pay attention to lines from certain casinos or offshore sites (e.g. Pinnacle, Bookmaker, South Point, The Greek, Heritage, etc). Those places don't move numbers on air, so if the line moved at those outs, you know they got hit with a bet from one of the "respect" accounts.

I would rather see us go from +8.5 to close +6.5 versus Florida than open +4.5 and close +5.5.
 
Poptimus said:
No, it's the closing line that matters. That tells you how the sharps moved the number. Obviously not all lines are created equal and you really should only pay attention to lines from certain casinos or offshore sites (e.g. Pinnacle, Bookmaker, South Point, The Greek, Heritage, etc). Those places don't move numbers on air, so if the line moved at those outs, you know they got hit with a bet from one of the "respect" accounts.

I would rather see us go from +8.5 to close +6.5 versus Florida than open +4.5 and close +5.5.
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Ah I see, thanks for the heads up, I always thought the opening line was the projection and the line just moved based off the bets coming in, appreciate it
 
5XNC said:
From 2017. Going to be big underdogs, disrespected. Manny will have these guys like rabid animals coming out for the game. The attacking pressure he’s gonna put on their offense and turnovers he’ll create will have us celebrating often and early in the stands.

UM historically does well in these games and manny will play it up as well as anyone...
Click to expand...
Can we please not be saying it’s setting up like the ND game? That game was amazing, then a garbage win against Virginia and 4 game losing streak.

No more one off moments of grandeur.
 
5XNC said:
From 2017. Going to be big underdogs, disrespected. Manny will have these guys like rabid animals coming out for the game. The attacking pressure he’s gonna put on their offense and turnovers he’ll create will have us celebrating often and early in the stands.

UM historically does well in these games and manny will play it up as well as anyone...
Click to expand...
We certainly will be underdogs but given the actual talent on our roster and this being a rivalry game, this plays right into our hands.
 
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Poptimus said:
No, it's the closing line that matters. That tells you how the sharps moved the number. Obviously not all lines are created equal and you really should only pay attention to lines from certain casinos or offshore sites (e.g. Pinnacle, Bookmaker, South Point, The Greek, Heritage, etc). Those places don't move numbers on air, so if the line moved at those outs, you know they got hit with a bet from one of the "respect" accounts.

I would rather see us go from +8.5 to close +6.5 versus Florida than open +4.5 and close +5.5.
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I don't understand what we're talking about what "matters." Yes, the closing line is the correct indicator of the betting forces, as to how the public perceives who will win the game and by how much. However, as an individual bettor, once you take the odds, you're locked in even after the line moves, right?
 
CanesLifer2 said:
Ah I see, thanks for the heads up, I always thought the opening line was the projection and the line just moved based off the bets coming in, appreciate it
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I don't think you two are saying anything different. There's an initial line. The line then moves based on betting pressure until it closes before the game.

Hypothetically, say the line is Miami +8.5 and EVERY SINGLE BET comes in with Miami under, then the house loses a pile of cash if that bet is correct. Hence why they move the line.
 
CashMoneyCane said:
I don't understand what we're talking about what "matters." Yes, the closing line is the correct indicator of the betting forces, as to how the public perceives who will win the game and by how much. However, as an individual bettor, once you take the odds, you're locked in even after the line moves, right?
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I took it as he said it "matters" meaning with regard to the line moving. And while I agree, he used it to justify the opening line whereas it's really the closing line. Obviously it's whatever price you get down at that matters whether you cash or not. I think we were referring to different things.
 
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