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Miami - ND Analytics

Hold My Beer said:
SEC (5): UGA, Bama, A&M, Ole Miss, OU
B1G (3): Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon
XII (1): Texas Tech-BYU winner
Other conference champion autobids (2): UVA or James Madison (Sun Belt champion) or Tulane or North Texas (Duke isn't getting in unless Troy upsets JMU)
Remaining at large bid (1): Notre Dame or the Canes. Vandy and the Horns SOL
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Bama wins.
BYU loses.

Bama jumps ND as SEC Champ and moves up to 9.
BYU is out.

ND/Miami will be sitting together for that 10-spot.
 
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Canesrule230 said:
Last week during the cfp show Heather Dinich made the statement that the committee felt that ND was better because their analytics were “much better” than Miami’s. Well here are the new updated analytics after today’s results:

SOR:
Mia:14
ND:13

SOS:
Mia: 44
ND:42

GC
Mia: 6
ND: 5

Efficiency:
Mia: 7
ND: 5

These 2 teams are basically identical when it comes to analytics- why is it then that the deciding factor isn’t the H2H result?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies

The other hypocritical point is what the cfp committee says is it’s principles for selecting teams:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Given that the analytics (especially SOS since the committee explicitly states that) are nearly identical - why is H2H not carrying the day?
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Because of this

University Of Miami Umiami GIF by University of Miami Alumni Association
 
Madabs said:
Notre Dame has wins against Three 2-10 teams, a 3-9, and 4-8. Their total wins are against teams with a 45% winning percentage. Miami beat ND and their wins are against teams with a 47% wining percentage. Both ND and Miami played 4 of the same teams and both won all 4. ND beat those teams 192-49 Miami 159-31. Those wins by ND 63, 29,29,22. Miami 35,34,31,28. 15 points difference with 1 win skewing the numbers in favor of ND.
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Man **** that. They played a **** lacrosse player cosplaying QB.
 
flips said:
Life is really imitating great art. The CFP needs thicker glasses. The CFP overruling lucid well thought out objections. Everything the CFP has said is bull****.

Who will be our Marisa Tomei?
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I’d like to know, because “the defense is wrong”.
 
Seems as good a thread as any to post this, cfb-graphs.com has been updated with this week’s results, pretty interesting to see what they’d say the line would be for us against each team in the playoff discussion. They have us power rated as the 5th best team in the country.

Bama - Miami -4
Georgia - Miami -3.5
OU- Miami -6.5
Ole Miss - Miami -7
Texas - Miami -9.5
Texas A&M - Miami -4.5
Vandy - Miami -7

BYU - Miami -7.5
Texas Tech - TTU -1.5
Utah - Miami -4

ND - ND -1.5

Indiana - IU -2.5
Ohio State - OSU -8
Oregon - Miami -2.5
 
TwentySix said:
Seems as good a thread as any to post this, cfb-graphs.com has been updated with this week’s results, pretty interesting to see what they’d say the line would be for us against each team in the playoff discussion. They have us power rated as the 5th best team in the country.

Bama - Miami -4
Georgia - Miami -3.5
OU- Miami -6.5
Ole Miss - Miami -7
Texas - Miami -9.5
Texas A&M - Miami -4.5
Vandy - Miami -7

BYU - Miami -7.5
Texas Tech - TTU -1.5
Utah - Miami -4

ND - ND -1.5

Indiana - IU -2.5
Ohio State - OSU -8
Oregon - Miami -2.5
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Sagarin has us 6th. I believe his numbers are essentially power rankings, so the only teams in the country he has favored over us on a neutral field would be:

Taint -6.5
ND -4
Indiana -4
Oregon -4
Texas Tech -0.5

Miami is 6th. Would be favored on a neutral field over the rest, including:

Bama by 1
UGA by 1
A&M by 3
Ole Miss by 3
Vandy by 3
OU by 4

Favored over the entire SEC on a neutral field, and our season is over. That's the good stuff.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve mentioned him several times on here but Adam McClintock does the best job I’ve seen of modeling what the committee does. It seems like there are varying metrics depending where you look. Who sets the “official” strength of schedule metric, for example? Nobody knows. But he lays out his metrics each week, and projects the rankings. No bias. And he nails it almost every week.

Through last week, he had ND’s resume ahead of Miami’s enough where they’re not going to take head to head into account. Here’s what he had LAST WEEK. I’m interested to see how this has changed for this week.

9 #NotreDame #GoIrish
Projected: 9✅

SOS 44
QW 5
T25W 1
GC 24.0

So why are the #Irish >#Bama? They have the 4th best GC in the poll paired w/a good SOS. 5 QWs matches the Tide, only 1 T25W is the only blemish. High GC metric & SOS make up the difference for now tho.

12 #Miami #Canes
Projected: 12✅

SOS 58
QW 3
T25W 1
GC 19.3

#Miami jumped #Utah this week due to widening the SOS gap from last week as well as closing the GC gap w/the #Utes resume. They also notched 1 more QW. The #Canes will likely be left out w/out an #ACC title tho.

So he had our SOS 58th, theirs 44. That gap has to have closed this week. We added a quality win, they did not. Our game control had to have improved, did theirs?
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He put out his new rankings. We passed ND on the SOS front but are still behind in the Quality Wins category (5 to 4) and Game Control category 24 to 20.

He keeps us at 12 saying that the extra QW and the 4 point differential on the GC category outweighs the H2H result.

Interestingly he also says that Alabama may get left out if they lose the sec championship game. Basically says we need to root for uga.
 
terdferguson said:
This is exactly what I was waiting for. They have had Notre Dame ranked ahead of us because of those metrics. But I suspected they would even up after this weekend. They don't have a leg to stand on now.
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Something else that I’m not smart enough to quantify statistically, but that seems to be happening is:

-Media narrative plays down Miami’s W vs ND

-Media narrative speaks of things like “eye test” etc as justification for ranking ND ahead of Miami, despite ND losing to Miami

-THEN, some begin to tout ND’s index rankings…ya know, those things that are supposed to remove intuition

-ND appears high on these indexes, higher than Miami…and several other bubble teams

****The only way ND can be that high on the index rankings is if they have been given credit for PLAYING tough opponents, such as AT MIAMI WEEK ONE (assuming these indexes give more weight to facing ranked opponents on the road)

What is INFURIATING is that by all accounts, it is safe to conclude that ND is literally receiving MORE credit for PLAYING Miami and LOSING, than Miami is receiving for WINNING.

Again, on the surface I know this sounds obvious due to everything that’s been going on…but really pause for a moment and consider the cost vs benefit at play…it’s bad enough Miami has to beat the refs and the old boy network…but even the indexes are flawed. Its ridiculous. Miami literally has zero upside to play anyone out of conference, should they remain in the ACC. Moving forward, take the Alabama route and schedule cupcakes, especially one sandwiched in late in the season to serve as a bye before conference championship and bowl season. Because WINNING an out of conference game against a ranked opponent would apparently only matter if it was on the road…and that’s just a guess…we can conclude that ND is somehow getting more credit from the indexes/models for simply participating in a game vs Miami, then the team that actually BEAT THEM ON THE FIELD.
 
mosthated305 said:
That last point, if Lane leaves and they don’t allow him to finish out the rest of the year at Ole Miss, wouldn't they have to decide if Ole Miss is now worth a bid?
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I saw an article yesterday that said committee could use that to further f#ck Miami and help ND. They could drop Ole Miss behind Notre Dame, so not only does ND get a home game (and possible bye), it puts more distance between Miami and ND so they can say H2H is no longer in play.
 
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