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Miami - ND Analytics

terdferguson said:
This is exactly what I was waiting for. They have had Notre Dame ranked ahead of us because of those metrics. But I suspected they would even up after this weekend. They don't have a leg to stand on now.
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This. They used this as justification. It’s gone now. It’s US, NEITHER, or BOTH. There can’t be just ND.
 
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Notre Dame not penalized for losing at Miami in Week 1.

Alabama not penalized for losing at garbage-*** FSU in Week 1.

Paul Rudd Reaction GIF by Saturday Night Live
 
The new talking point is that Notre Dame and Miami aren't being compared to each other alone but rather Notre Dame Miami Alabama and Oklahoma are all being compared against each other.
 
SCarolina Ibis said:
Common opponents:

We now have 4 common opponents with Notre Dame AND a win against them. What makes ND "the better team right now"?

Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24
NC State: Miami won 41-7. Notre Dame won 36-7.
Syracuse: Miami won 38-10. Notre Dame won 70-7.
Pitt: Miami won 38-7. Notre Dame won 37-15.
Stanford: Miami won 42-7. Notre Dame won 49-20.

In his on-field interview immediately after the game, Mario said we're getting multiple players back from injury "within the next 2 weeks".
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Margin of victory generally shouldn't matter between common opponents. We both beat the same 4 teams handily. The end.

What makes ND "the better team right now"?

This is where our argument should be focused. When the committee first released their rankings, yes, ND was playing much better football than we were. Now both teams are playing great, and admittedly I'm biased but I think we are playing better than they are over the last four games. So if it's a push at best as to which team is playing better right now, you probably should consider the H2H result when we freaking beat them as the determining factor.
 
H2H win. If we want to talk halftimes and mid game scores you can reference BC and NC St. How in the world do you defend ND, at all? Miami and ND are both in with Miami ahead or neither are.

SOR
MIA: 14
ND: 13

SOS
MIA: 44
ND: 42

GC
MIA: 6
ND: 5

EFFICIENCY
MIA: 7
ND: 5
2464.jpg
 
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flips said:
Margin of victory generally shouldn't matter between common opponents. We both beat the same 4 teams handily. The end.

What makes ND "the better team right now"?

This is where our argument should be focused. When the committee first released their rankings, yes, ND was playing much better football than we were. Now both teams are playing great, and admittedly I'm biased but I think we are playing better than they are over the last four games. So if it's a push at best as to which team is playing better right now, you probably should consider the H2H result when we freaking beat them as the determining factor.
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EXACTLY. With the way we're playing right now, we could go toe to toe with anybody. AND Mario said we're about to get starters back from injury.

I can't shake what Saban said about us being the most dangerous team in the playoff if we get in. That's high praise. A few national guys have gone so far as to call us this year's version of last year's OSU.

Nobody is saying anything close to that about ND.

No matter how they twist the argument, it's always close enough to go back to head to head. And it's the one thing they won't take into account.
 
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Canesrule230 said:
Last week during the cfp show Heather Dinich made the statement that the committee felt that ND was better because their analytics were “much better” than Miami’s. Well here are the new updated analytics after today’s results:

SOR:
Mia:14
ND:13

SOS:
Mia: 44
ND:42

GC
Mia: 6
ND: 5

Efficiency:
Mia: 7
ND: 5

These 2 teams are basically identical when it comes to analytics- why is it then that the deciding factor isn’t the H2H result?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies

The other hypocritical point is what the cfp committee says is it’s principles for selecting teams:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Given that the analytics (especially SOS since the committee explicitly states that) are nearly identical - why is H2H not carrying the day?
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Why isn’t our injuries against SMU also being touched upon or the fact that we lost an all American Nickel and didn’t miss a beat
 
SCarolina Ibis said:
EXACTLY. With the way we're playing right now, we could go toe to toe with anybody. AND Mario said we're about to get starters back from injury.

I can't shake what Saban said about us being the most dangerous team in the playoff if we get in. That's high praise. A few national guys have gone so far as to call us this year's version of last year's OSU.

Nobody is saying anything close to that about ND.

No matter how they twist the argument, it's always close enough to go back to head to head. And it's the one thing they won't take into account.
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I don't watch the pregame shows but I would wager that Saban is saying that because of our defense. The whole defense wins championships thing, which is an "eye test" thing that is actually useful and makes sense, not whether you scored a garbage time TD when you were already up 3 scores.
 
ristwasdown said:
H2H win. If we want to talk halftimes and mid game scores you can reference BC. How in the world do you defend ND, at all? Miami and ND are both in with Miami ahead or neither are.

SOR
MIA: 14
ND: 13

SOS
MIA: 44
ND: 42

GC
MIA: 6
ND: 5

EFFICIENCY
MIA: 7
ND: 5View attachment 344510
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To add to this, THESE ARE ALL CONFERENCE OPPONENTS FOR US. Playing Notre Dame for these teams has no significance. Narduzzi is a b*tch but he wasn’t wrong about the Notre Dame game.
 
Canesrule230 said:
Last week during the cfp show Heather Dinich made the statement that the committee felt that ND was better because their analytics were “much better” than Miami’s. Well here are the new updated analytics after today’s results:

SOR:
Mia:14
ND:13

SOS:
Mia: 44
ND:42

GC
Mia: 6
ND: 5

Efficiency:
Mia: 7
ND: 5

These 2 teams are basically identical when it comes to analytics- why is it then that the deciding factor isn’t the H2H result?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies

The other hypocritical point is what the cfp committee says is it’s principles for selecting teams:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Given that the analytics (especially SOS since the committee explicitly states that) are nearly identical - why is H2H not carrying the day?
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Valid points & appreciate the effort, but seems clear the committee & its mouthpieces are not moving Miami ahead of ND. One can expect last week’s talking points to be tweaked in support of the Irish.
 
Hold My Beer said:
Notre Dame not penalized for losing at Miami in Week 1.

Alabama not penalized for losing at garbage-*** FSU in Week 1.

Paul Rudd Reaction GIF by Saturday Night Live
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I think the fix is no more out of conference openers. Jump right into conference play then play your OCC in the 3 weeks before rivalry week. This would let everyone know who’s who amongst the conferences before any inter conference games so that the strength of each conference could be assessed accurately heading into rivalry week and the last rankings
 
ristwasdown said:
H2H win. If we want to talk halftimes and mid game scores you can reference BC and NC St. How in the world do you defend ND, at all? Miami and ND are both in with Miami ahead or neither are.

SOR
MIA: 14
ND: 13

SOS
MIA: 44
ND: 42

GC
MIA: 6
ND: 5

EFFICIENCY
MIA: 7
ND: 5View attachment 344510
Click to expand...
COMMON OPPONENTS

btw Miami beat them don’t worry about that though
 
CreativeCane said:
They were already ahead of us in AP. But their game yesterday was less impressive than ours against similarly ranked teams.

The fact is, the committee 100% knows the stats, the analytics, the common opponents, and H2H. They’ve just made it crystal clear that they do not care. They have an agenda and at this point don’t care about the heat because what is anyone going to do? It’s as corrupt as can be.
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This.


 
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CreativeCane said:
They were already ahead of us in AP. But their game yesterday was less impressive than ours against similarly ranked teams.

The fact is, the committee 100% knows the stats, the analytics, the common opponents, and H2H. They’ve just made it crystal clear that they do not care. They have an agenda and at this point don’t care about the heat because what is anyone going to do? It’s as corrupt as can be.
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They might just take both of us out and just put in Texas
 
terdferguson said:
The new talking point is that Notre Dame and Miami aren't being compared to each other alone but rather Notre Dame Miami Alabama and Oklahoma are all being compared against each other.
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I can play this game too:
1764521051477.png


From the CFP website:
The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Soo based on SOS technically AL is the highest but they've been ranked below OU because OU owns the H2H which is completely reasonable. ND being ahead of AL is inconsistent though. The only argument they can make for having ND ahead of AL would be better GC and efficiency ratings. So if that's the case then Miami should also be ahead of AL since Miami is owns the gc and efficiency ratings against AL.

Let's continue to dig in:

Miami owns the H2H against ND and owns the common opponents comparison. ND has a slight edge on SOS/SOR. Here's another GIANT inconsistency. AL has the same slight edges on the sos/sor front against OU. But OU is ahead of AL because of the h2h (which is 100% reasonable). Miami has not gotten the same treatment with nd.

Bottomline - we should be ahead of nd. The committee has hard data points to review - no more hypotheticals. Miami beat ND, beat common opponents better than ND and is neck and neck to ND with analytics they touted as the reason for having nd far ahead of us.
 
GojiraCane said:
They might just take both of us out and just put in Texas
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Both out and BYU in is probably the right thing to do based on guidelines.

I don't disagree Texas is better, but don't set 3 loss precedents.

I truly think bama should be out if they lose in CG vs a team they currently get credit for beating. Same for BYU if they lose big again
 
Kn[]_[]ckles3o5 said:
I think the fix is no more out of conference openers. Jump right into conference play then play your OCC in the 3 weeks before rivalry week. This would let everyone know who’s who amongst the conferences before any inter conference games so that the strength of each conference could be assessed accurately heading into rivalry week and the last rankings
Click to expand...

The only fix imo is moving to the SEC or B1G.

The ACC — like the Pac-12 before it — is treated as a second-class conference because that's what it is.

The ACC's members either get invited to the big-boy pool or continue to deal with the repercussions of where they are right now.

There is zero middle ground
 
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