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Miami - ND Analytics

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I’ve mentioned him several times on here but Adam McClintock does the best job I’ve seen of modeling what the committee does. It seems like there are varying metrics depending where you look. Who sets the “official” strength of schedule metric, for example? Nobody knows. But he lays out his metrics each week, and projects the rankings. No bias. And he nails it almost every week.

Through last week, he had ND’s resume ahead of Miami’s enough where they’re not going to take head to head into account. Here’s what he had LAST WEEK. I’m interested to see how this has changed for this week.

9 #NotreDame #GoIrish
Projected: 9✅

SOS 44
QW 5
T25W 1
GC 24.0

So why are the #Irish >#Bama? They have the 4th best GC in the poll paired w/a good SOS. 5 QWs matches the Tide, only 1 T25W is the only blemish. High GC metric & SOS make up the difference for now tho.

12 #Miami #Canes
Projected: 12✅

SOS 58
QW 3
T25W 1
GC 19.3

#Miami jumped #Utah this week due to widening the SOS gap from last week as well as closing the GC gap w/the #Utes resume. They also notched 1 more QW. The #Canes will likely be left out w/out an #ACC title tho.

So he had our SOS 58th, theirs 44. That gap has to have closed this week. We added a quality win, they did not. Our game control had to have improved, did theirs?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve mentioned him several times on here but Adam McClintock does the best job I’ve seen of modeling what the committee does. It seems like there are varying metrics depending where you look. Who sets the “official” strength of schedule metric, for example? Nobody knows. But he lays out his metrics each week, and projects the rankings. No bias. And he nails it almost every week.

Through last week, he had ND’s resume ahead of Miami’s enough where they’re not going to take head to head into account. Here’s what he had LAST WEEK. I’m interested to see how this has changed for this week.

9 #NotreDame #GoIrish
Projected: 9✅

SOS 44
QW 5
T25W 1
GC 24.0

So why are the #Irish >#Bama? They have the 4th best GC in the poll paired w/a good SOS. 5 QWs matches the Tide, only 1 T25W is the only blemish. High GC metric & SOS make up the difference for now tho.

12 #Miami #Canes
Projected: 12✅

SOS 58
QW 3
T25W 1
GC 19.3

#Miami jumped #Utah this week due to widening the SOS gap from last week as well as closing the GC gap w/the #Utes resume. They also notched 1 more QW. The #Canes will likely be left out w/out an #ACC title tho.

So he had our SOS 58th, theirs 44. That gap has to have closed this week. We added a quality win, they did not. Our game control had to have improved, did theirs?
Click to expand...
Who does he have as quality wins for ND? Navy? Boise State? I see Pitt and USC. That’s it.
 
Canesrule230 said:
Last week during the cfp show Heather Dinich made the statement that the committee felt that ND was better because their analytics were “much better” than Miami’s. Well here are the new updated analytics after today’s results:

SOR:
Mia:14
ND:13

SOS:
Mia: 44
ND:42

GC
Mia: 6
ND: 5

Efficiency:
Mia: 7
ND: 5

These 2 teams are basically identical when it comes to analytics- why is it then that the deciding factor isn’t the H2H result?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies

The other hypocritical point is what the cfp committee says is it’s principles for selecting teams:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Given that the analytics (especially SOS since the committee explicitly states that) are nearly identical - why is H2H not carrying the day?
Click to expand...
So much bull****. According to their rules they don't take margin of victory into account, but you also don't stop hearing talk about style points and passing the eye test. The goal posts don't stop moving.
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
Who does he have as quality wins for ND? Navy? Boise State? I see Pitt and USC. That’s it.
Click to expand...

I believe he defines a quality win as a team over .500. Does the committee? Idk but he nails their rankings every week and has for a decade.

So they have Pitt, USC, Boise, NC State and Navy, if that’s the case.

Miami has ND, Pitt, NC State, and USF.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I believe he defines a quality win as a team over .500. Does the committee? Idk but he nails their rankings every week and has for a decade.

So they have Pitt, USC, Boise, NC State and Navy, if that’s the case.

Miami has ND, Pitt, NC State, and USF.
Click to expand...
Thx for the info I just started following him on X - anxious to see what his rankings show tomorrow.

Where do you think he’ll have us tomorrow based on his methodology?
 
SinCityCane said:
So much bull****. According to their rules they don't take margin of victory into account, but you also don't stop hearing talk about style points and passing the eye test. The goal posts don't stop moving.
Click to expand...
You’ll hear Miami was tied with Stanford at the half while ND was winning 35-3. Make no mention that ND gave up 2x the yardage that we did and we ended up with a larger margin of victory and they’re out there running fake punts to try to run the score up. Same reason we’ve heard zero about ND being up by 2 on 2-10 BC with seconds left in the 3rd quarter and only winning by a couple of scores. Even if it is brought up the argument will be we didn’t play Bc so it’s not a fair comparison. It’s the old heads I win, tails you lose style of arguing.
 
Notre Dame has wins against Three 2-10 teams, a 3-9, and 4-8. Their total wins are against teams with a 45% winning percentage. Miami beat ND and their wins are against teams with a 47% wining percentage. Both ND and Miami played 4 of the same teams and both won all 4. ND beat those teams 192-49 Miami 159-31. Those wins by ND 63, 29,29,22. Miami 35,34,31,28. 15 points difference with 1 win skewing the numbers in favor of ND.
 
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Madabs said:
Notre Dame has wins against Three 2-10 teams, a 3-9, and 4-8. Their total wins are against teams with a 45% winning percentage. Miami beat ND and their wins are against teams with a 47% wining percentage. Both ND and Miami played 4 of the same teams and both won all 4. ND beat those teams 192-49 Miami 159-31. Those wins by ND 63, 29,29,22. Miami 35,34,31,28. 15 points difference with 1 win skewing the numbers in favor of ND.
Click to expand...

Miami has only beaten 4 teams above .500. ND has beaten 5. Problem is, one of the ones Miami has beaten is actually notre dame. There’s no reason for ND to be ahead when the resumes are pretty close and Miami won, but we know what will happen.
 
Genghis Cane said:
Someone send this to our ******* lazy athletic director. Guy is useless.

And while you’re at it, send it to Jim Phillips.
Click to expand...

The same Jim Phillips who stood by two years ago with his thumb up his *** while Sankey went on College Gameday and said the four-team CFP would be a joke if the SEC wasn't in it?

Good luck with that.

The fact of the matter is Miami getting into the playoffs isn't a priority for Jim Phillips, any public posturing aside. The ACC schools will get the same CFP payout whether UM and UVA are playing for the National Championship or zero ACC teams are in the 12-team field (a likelihood if Duke wins Saturday).

Look at the Pac-12's implosion in 2023 as a roadmap.

Phillips going forward is focused on the ACC's finances and any left-behind schools like Wake and whoever else doesn't get an invite to the SEC/B1G/XII.

Why would he go the extra mile to help schools trying to GTFO?
 
Last edited:
Canesrule230 said:
Last week during the cfp show Heather Dinich made the statement that the committee felt that ND was better because their analytics were “much better” than Miami’s. Well here are the new updated analytics after today’s results:

SOR:
Mia:14
ND:13

SOS:
Mia: 44
ND:42

GC
Mia: 6
ND: 5

Efficiency:
Mia: 7
ND: 5

These 2 teams are basically identical when it comes to analytics- why is it then that the deciding factor isn’t the H2H result?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies

The other hypocritical point is what the cfp committee says is it’s principles for selecting teams:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Given that the analytics (especially SOS since the committee explicitly states that) are nearly identical - why is H2H not carrying the day?
Click to expand...
Ok we had key players out during smu. We beat them in comparative outcomes and h2h. wtf are they doing
 
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PennsylvaniaCane said:
You’ll hear Miami was tied with Stanford at the half while ND was winning 35-3. Make no mention that ND gave up 2x the yardage that we did and we ended up with a larger margin of victory and they’re out there running fake punts to try to run the score up. Same reason we’ve heard zero about ND being up by 2 on 2-10 BC with seconds left in the 3rd quarter and only winning by a couple of scores. Even if it is brought up the argument will be we didn’t play Bc so it’s not a fair comparison. It’s the old heads I win, tails you lose style of arguing.
Click to expand...
I know you are but what am I lol
 
SEC (5): UGA, Bama, A&M, Ole Miss, OU
B1G (3): Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon
XII (1): Texas Tech-BYU winner
Other conference champion autobids (2): UVA or James Madison (Sun Belt champion) or Tulane or North Texas (Duke isn't getting in unless Troy upsets JMU)
Remaining at large bid (1): Notre Dame or the Canes. Vandy and the Horns SOL
 
Canesrule230 said:
Last week during the cfp show Heather Dinich made the statement that the committee felt that ND was better because their analytics were “much better” than Miami’s. Well here are the new updated analytics after today’s results:

SOR:
Mia:14
ND:13

SOS:
Mia: 44
ND:42

GC
Mia: 6
ND: 5

Efficiency:
Mia: 7
ND: 5

These 2 teams are basically identical when it comes to analytics- why is it then that the deciding factor isn’t the H2H result?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies

The other hypocritical point is what the cfp committee says is it’s principles for selecting teams:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Given that the analytics (especially SOS since the committee explicitly states that) are nearly identical - why is H2H not carrying the day?
Click to expand...
Common opponents:

We now have 4 common opponents with Notre Dame AND a win against them. What makes ND "the better team right now"?

Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24
NC State: Miami won 41-7. Notre Dame won 36-7.
Syracuse: Miami won 38-10. Notre Dame won 70-7.
Pitt: Miami won 38-7. Notre Dame won 37-15.
Stanford: Miami won 42-7. Notre Dame won 49-20.

In his on-field interview immediately after the game, Mario said we're getting multiple players back from injury "within the next 2 weeks".
 
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