Miami/ND analysis-prediction

[Groz73Cane]

Counterpoint: TVD/Cam worked with basically the same receivers since the Spring (several months) learning the ins and outs of the playbook. Beck has had less time (close to a full month) working with a younger receiving group; remember the reports of Beck throwing to a spot and the receivers not being there?

A lot of y'all are underestimating ND's defense. The only offense they struggled with last year, technically this year haha, was OSU in the NC.

Never will, did underestimate ND. Correct made it to NC. They’re loaded, but young, across the board We’re loaded, not so young, but for some positions. Only one I see being underestimated is Carson. Guy’s shown me good talent/skills and leadership. He’s battle hardened and has a F**k load the prove and clawback the Bulls**t thrown his way. His heads in it, we’re in it, kids the real deal.

 

[MiamisMoperiestMopes]

I hear you. I explained in the post above, but head to head at this stage, obviously Beck has the big advantage.

 

[skyman]

There is a heavy rotation of 4 LB's. Last year five LB's rotated, and they return four of them. Drayk Bowen is a former 5* entering his Jr year. He is a stud. He is the defensive signal caller. He fills beautifully and is super smart and physical. He really brings the wood. The highest pro prospect is probably Kingston Viliamu-Asa. KVA is incredibly smart and gifted. A significant player as a freshman a year ago. Jaylynn Sneed is another former 5* and is now a senior. Very, very athletic. Very gifted. Plays fast and physical. Jaiden Ausberry is another former high recruit entering his Jr. year. Very versatile. One thing they have in common is they can all really run, they are coached incredibly well, and are very good at block destruction.

I hear you on Dawson. He is very, very good. Denbrock has been widely respected as a top or the top OC in the country for a bit now. Jayden Daniels was just OK until Denbrock helped turn him into the Heisman winner and led LSU to the top scoring O in the country before he left to ND. At ND, he took Riley Leonard's skills and molded them into working to his strengths. Denbrock does a fantastic job of playing to the strengths of his QB's. I agree with you, though. Shannon did the same thing with Ward. Maybe you could say the OC's are a push.

As for your CB's. It sounds like your outside ones will be very solid. Will be curious to see if they try to man up without safety help out there. However, I am hoping ND can do some damage in the slot. ND's slot players are going to be a pleasant surprise, I think, and I don't know how Miami's nickel is. Possibly pretty good. I just haven't heard as much about that spot.

Appreciate the names, sounds like a super talented group. Ill look them up. ]

In regards to slot, I think they are going Keionte Scott. The Auburn transfer, seems like he is back in his role where he has excelled in past. I would imagine Damari Brown gets a crack there also, he was started last year on outside but got injured in 1st game. Probably main reason why our pass D was soo bad as we had no depth and it was domino affect as they went all in last year but forgot to invest in quality DBs.

I know Greathouse finished year strong and Pauling seems to have a great camp, should be a good matchup.

 

[grover]

I will give it a shot both ways, for fun.

QB - Miami with a moderate advantage. Beck is proven and seems to be slept on a bit. Carr is going to be really good, but this is his first start in a hostile environment. Interesting that Miami doesn't think he is mobile, though.

Stopped reading right there. People are high on crack trying to compare Carr and Beck. It is the dominant difference between the two teams and is the reason Miami will almost certainly win. If Riley Leonard were QB, I'd be concerned. but he's not and I'm not.

 

[3FW]

I'm not sure I could have written it any clearer, but I'll try. On this morning's episode of Good Morning Verminbag, Shodell said that ND's top TWO defensive ends are hurt and they're expected to miss the game. I would post a link, but this site is a million x better and I don't want to disrespect Team DMoney like that.
Now is Shodell FOS? I mean, could be, but he doesn't usually do that.

He’s wrong, and lazy as most of their stuff is.

 

[3FW]

ND position groups v. Miami’s
QB Miami
Wr ND
TE Miami
OL ND
RB ND
DL ND
LB ND
DB ND
Special Teams: ND
Coaches: ND

Intangibles? Miami has big home field advantage. ND has Pope and millions of Catholics praying ND wins.

Prediction: Miami 31-30.

Our DL is at least equal and our OL is better. I have Notre Dame season tickets, I don’t miss a snap. WR, we don’t really know. TE, their starter is a freak, like ours. They have injuries, our room is better so agree. Rest I agree.

 

[3FW]

The reason I'm not looking at Price as seriously is your point about "limited carries". He might be great. He might do some damage. But last year, it was "change of pace RB" yardage, it was not "bell-cow RB" yardage. On top of which, he played last year with a running QB, which changes the situation a fair amount if the defense is overly keyed on stopping the QB run.

As for comparing yardage, yeah, our guys will not have big numbers when we have the greatest single-season QB production in Miami history. Yes, Price had more YARDS than Fletch and Lyle. He also had more CARRIES than Fletch and Lyle. He also played in SIXTEEN games, compared to 13 for Fletch and 12 for Lyle. Both Damien Martinez AND Jordan Lyle had a higher yards-per-carry number than Jadarian Price. Which is not a criticism, it's just an attempt to reflect that ND's offense and running game were structured differently than Miami's last year.

The Price kid is impressive. What I would like to see is whether he can perform at that same level if (a) the QB does not run as effectively as Riley Leonard once did, and (b) Miami is able to slow down and/or contain Jeremiyah Love. And, again, that is not a slam on Love, it is just a question since we Miami's first priority will be to stop Love and force the freshman QB to try to beat us.

Can't wait. Should be fun.

He’s soft, will try and bounce everything outside.

 

[3FW]

I love Marcus Freeman, but the guy had 10 men on the field on 2 consecutive downs less than two years ago with the game on the line against OSU. He’s a carbon copy of Mario who had a huge head start because he was on the staff and Kelly left him a lot to work with. Lot’s of similarities between the two programs, on trajectory.

 

[OrangeSlidez]

Make 2025 the year when we stop comparing position groups to discuss the outcome of football games.

I genuinely appreciate the effort, but I cannot stress how irrelevant the match-up of our running backs against their running backs is. They don't play football at the same time.

I understand your premise, you're comparing overall rosters. But again, that's essentially irrelevant. Miami, position by position, was superior to Syracuse. But they had a MASSIVE advantage in what was BY FAR the strength of their team (their passing game) versus what was BY FAR the weakness of Miami's team (the secondary). And that one area of massive strength versus crippling weakness decided the entire football game.

IMO the story of the game will come down to Miami's WR's versus ND's back 7....and Miami's front 7 versus ND's backs. If we can limit Love and the group somewhat, we'll be successful on defense. If we can get open against their secondary, we'll be able to move the ball consistently. Unfortunately, I think ND has the edge in both those spots, but it's not like Miami is totally devoid of advantages. I love our corners against their WRs, especially when you factor in a new QB in a very loud environment and what I feel will be a substantial pass rush. I think we'll be able to run the ball efficiently on anyone we play. We have a very experienced quarterback who ND will not be able to rattle or confuse. And we'll have 70,000 sauced gorillas at full throat, in humidity so thick you can wear it. I love our chances.

But these are 2 good teams. We're home, and they have a QB playing for the first time. I seriously doubt it'll be 41-8, but there's no reason to not get this done.

i think the matchup we should try to exploit is their LBs in coverage against Bauman, Lofton, & Lyle. ND beat not sure about their LBs in coverage.

I love Marcus Freeman, but the guy had 10 men on the field on 2 consecutive downs less than two years ago with the game on the line against OSU. He’s a carbon copy of Mario who had a huge head start because he was on the staff and Kelly left him a lot to work with. Lot’s of similarities between the two programs, on trajectory.

hes lost to Stanford, Marshall, & NIU… Why not S!!

 

[Tru C]

Can someone provide me a pep talk about our inexperience at WR? Thanks

 

[Number1CanesFan]

Here are my comments from another thread on the ND running game and QB.

I looked at ND's running game against top 40 run defenses. I didn't want to waste time at irrelevant stats against Army, Navy, Miami(OH), Northern Illinois, Purdue, USC, and Virginia. All outside of the top 40 run defenses.

This is what I found: In the CFP, Love and Price had 29 and 31 carries each for a total of 60 carries in 4 games. Of those 60 carries, they had ONLY 3 runs of 10 yards or more. Love had a 98 yard TD against Indiana. Price had a 20-yard run against Indiana and a 12-yard run against Penn State. That's it for their post season. They were basically shut down outside of those 3 runs for the entire CFP.

Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State were top 10 run defenses. Georgia was 36th.

Against ACC foes FSU, GT, and Louisville, Love averaged 2.1, 2.6, and 3.1 yards per attempt. FSU was 106th against the run. GT 30th, and Louisville 40th. For reference, Miami was 19th.

Love had only 1 run of 10 yards or more against top 40 defenses. Price had a few more. What the stats tell you is that, although they are explosive RBs, the big runs were rare against top 40 run defenses and their 7 yrd/att averages were padded against weaker run defenses outside of the top 40.

In fact, there were ONLY 2 games that Love averaged 3.2 yards/att or more against top 40 run defenses. Those games were against Indiana and Penn State. Love had 108 yards on 8 carries. 98 on 1 carry, and 7 carries for 10 yards. Against Penn State, Love had 11 carries for 46 yards.

Jeremiyah Love 2025 Stats per Game - NCAAF - ESPN

The 2025 NCAAF season stats per game for Jeremiyah Love of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Jadarian Price 2025 Stats per Game - NCAAF - ESPN

The 2025 NCAAF season stats per game for Jadarian Price of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Leonard really was a huge part in the ND run game. They are not going to be able to replace that production simply by giving Love and Price more carries. It's a different dynamic with the QB run. You have one less defender to account for and the read option makes defenders play slower with deception of who has the ball. That all goes away.

By all indications, Minchey actually won the QB battle and the coaches were torn on who they wanted as the starter. It's been said that Freeman wanted Minchey, but OC Denbrock wanted Carr because Carr has the vertical passing game and a higher ceiling.

We know Carr has been named the starter. It's clear what ND wants to do with their offense. They want the vertical passing game to keep safeties out of the box to open up their running game. Without safety help, they expect to have more explosive runs and larger gaines in general. It may work, but I expect some growing pains. They could see more turnovers and a lot of 3rd and longs from incomplete vertical passes on 1st and 2nd downs. I don't expect much of a vertical passing game against Miami unless Denbrock really trusts Carr. They will take a few vertical shots, but I think they will script some easy throws and rely on their running game to create 3rd and short situations. Miami's job is to put ND in 3rd & long and make Carr uncomfortable.

I think Minchey will play with certain packages and if Carr struggles.

 

[Kn[]_[]ckles3o5]

There is a heavy rotation of 4 LB's. Last year five LB's rotated, and they return four of them. Drayk Bowen is a former 5* entering his Jr year. He is a stud. He is the defensive signal caller. He fills beautifully and is super smart and physical. He really brings the wood. The highest pro prospect is probably Kingston Viliamu-Asa. KVA is incredibly smart and gifted. A significant player as a freshman a year ago. Jaylynn Sneed is another former 5* and is now a senior. Very, very athletic. Very gifted. Plays fast and physical. Jaiden Ausberry is another former high recruit entering his Jr. year. Very versatile. One thing they have in common is they can all really run, they are coached incredibly well, and are very good at block destruction.

I hear you on Dawson. He is very, very good. Denbrock has been widely respected as a top or the top OC in the country for a bit now. Jayden Daniels was just OK until Denbrock helped turn him into the Heisman winner and led LSU to the top scoring O in the country before he left to ND. At ND, he took Riley Leonard's skills and molded them into working to his strengths. Denbrock does a fantastic job of playing to the strengths of his QB's. I agree with you, though. Shannon did the same thing with Ward. Maybe you could say the OC's are a push.

As for your CB's. It sounds like your outside ones will be very solid. Will be curious to see if they try to man up without safety help out there. However, I am hoping ND can do some damage in the slot. ND's slot players are going to be a pleasant surprise, I think, and I don't know how Miami's nickel is. Possibly pretty good. I just haven't heard as much about that spot.

Our Nickel

 

[Kn[]_[]ckles3o5]

I love Marcus Freeman, but the guy had 10 men on the field on 2 consecutive downs less than two years ago with the game on the line against OSU. He’s a carbon copy of Mario who had a huge head start because he was on the staff and Kelly left him a lot to work with. Lot’s of similarities between the two programs, on trajectory.

He also lost to Northern Illinois with a CFP level roster.

 

[EudocimusAlbus]

 

[twes.305]

Here are my comments from another thread on the ND running game and QB.

I looked at ND's running game against top 40 run defenses. I didn't want to waste time at irrelevant stats against Army, Navy, Miami(OH), Northern Illinois, Purdue, USC, and Virginia. All outside of the top 40 run defenses.

This is what I found: In the CFP, Love and Price had 29 and 31 carries each for a total of 60 carries in 4 games. Of those 60 carries, they had ONLY 3 runs of 10 yards or more. Love had a 98 yard TD against Indiana. Price had a 20-yard run against Indiana and a 12-yard run against Penn State. That's it for their post season. They were basically shut down outside of those 3 runs for the entire CFP.

Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State were top 10 run defenses. Georgia was 36th.

Against ACC foes FSU, GT, and Louisville, Love averaged 2.1, 2.6, and 3.1 yards per attempt. FSU was 106th against the run. GT 30th, and Louisville 40th. For reference, Miami was 19th.

Love had only 1 run of 10 yards or more against top 40 defenses. Price had a few more. What the stats tell you is that, although they are explosive RBs, the big runs were rare against top 40 run defenses and their 7 yrd/att averages were padded against weaker run defenses outside of the top 40.

In fact, there were ONLY 2 games that Love averaged 3.2 yards/att or more against top 40 run defenses. Those games were against Indiana and Penn State. Love had 108 yards on 8 carries. 98 on 1 carry, and 7 carries for 10 yards. Against Penn State, Love had 11 carries for 46 yards.

Jeremiyah Love 2025 Stats per Game - NCAAF - ESPN

The 2025 NCAAF season stats per game for Jeremiyah Love of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Jadarian Price 2025 Stats per Game - NCAAF - ESPN

The 2025 NCAAF season stats per game for Jadarian Price of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Leonard really was a huge part in the ND run game. They are not going to be able to replace that production simply by giving Love and Price more carries. It's a different dynamic with the QB run. You have one less defender to account for and the read option makes defenders play slower with deception of who has the ball. That all goes away.

By all indications, Minchey actually won the QB battle and the coaches were torn on who they wanted as the starter. It's been said that Freeman wanted Minchey, but OC Denbrock wanted Carr because Carr has the vertical passing game and a higher ceiling.

We know Carr has been named the starter. It's clear what ND wants to do with their offense. They want the vertical passing game to keep safeties out of the box to open up their running game. Without safety help, they expect to have more explosive runs and larger gaines in general. It may work, but I expect some growing pains. They could see more turnovers and a lot of 3rd and longs from incomplete vertical passes on 1st and 2nd downs. I don't expect much of a vertical passing game against Miami unless Denbrock really trusts Carr. They will take a few vertical shots, but I think they will script some easy throws and rely on their running game to create 3rd and short situations. Miami's job is to put ND in 3rd & long and make Carr uncomfortable.

I think Minchey will play with certain packages and if Carr struggles.

They are good running backs, who will make you pay if you mess up, but they aren’t the 1st talent p are making them out to be. Also their OL is good but not as good as ppl are making it out to be. ND DBs are not lockdown by any means. Talented guys, but a good offense has always been able to put up points against them.

 

[Number1CanesFan]

They are good running backs, who will make you pay if you mess up, but they aren’t the 1st talent p are making them out to be. Also their OL is good but not as good as ppl are making it out to be. ND DBs are not lockdown by any means. Talented guys, but a good offense has always been able to put up points against them.

That's what the data shows. They didn't have the same production against the better defenses. So, yes, their OL isn't as good as reflected by the data. Contrast them to Miami. I think we were consistent in most games in yards/attempt.

Looking at the same 3 common ACC opponents as ND, Miami RBs rushed for:
FSU - Martinez: 11 for 148 (9.9/att); Fletcher: 15 for 71 (4.7/att); Lyles: 1 for 6 (6.0/att);
GT - Martinez: 15 for 81 (5.4/att); Fletcher: 4 for 12 (3.0/att); Lyles: -;
Lou - Martinez: 12 for 89 (7.4/att); Fletcher: 13 for 73 (5.6/att); Lyles: -;

Miami has a different style of RBs than ND. I think our style of running and blocking dictates consistency with no negative run plays.

 

[Hstokes1447]

It's like they themselves are admitting the fight has been taken out of them.

View attachment 332983View attachment 332984

Took his ball and went home

 

[3FW]

Can someone provide me a pep talk about our inexperience at WR? Thanks

Daniels, Marion, and Johnson have tons of experience and they will play a lot. The young guys, Trader, Moore and Toney are like old school Canes, high draft pick potential. Plus we have a deep unit, with guys like Ray Ray, NY Carr, Chance, and Upshaw. Would not surprise me if all 10 played this year.

 

[Hstokes1447]

100% if ND expects Miami to try and make this a B10 game they got something else coming. That would be playing right into NDs hands. Miami gonna move fast, try to speed it up. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carson throws the ball 35-40 times

Exactly!!! It’s as if people forget Miami had the #1 passing offense last season lol. Carson is going to slice them up. Those DB can and will be beat.

 

[Hstokes1447]

Defense was overrated by a schedule that really played very few good offenses. It’s actually hilarious. ND played 4 top 30 offenses in YPG (0 top 10 offenses)

Here’s what ND did in those 4 games (remember Al Golden is also gone).

Vs UL: 395 yards allowed, 24 points
Vs USC: 557 yards allowed, 35 points
Vs PSU: 339 yards allowed, 24 points
Vs OSU: 445 yards allowed, 34 points

Average: 434 yards allowed & 29 PPG.

This is the advantage I see. That defense vs Miami offense is an advantage for Miami.

Putting those paper tigers against Dawsons offense, run by the best offensive line in the nation and Carson Beck who is 71% when throwing from a clean pocket.

Against a new DC, while replacing the heart and soul of that defense in Xavier Watts, it’s going to be a long night for them.