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Bringin the good Lord into it is worse than steelin signs.
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Miami/ND analysis-prediction
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CanesFan93
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Counterpoint: TVD/Cam worked with basically the same receivers since the Spring (several months) learning the ins and outs of the playbook. Beck has had less time (close to a full month) working with a younger receiving group; remember the reports of Beck throwing to a spot and the receivers not being there?
A lot of y'all are underestimating ND's defense. The only offense they struggled with last year, technically this year haha, was OSU in the NC.
kccanefan
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Games like this are pretty simple. Won or lost in the trenches. No reason to over complicate. Also our positions are not going up against each other. Its Beck against their LBs and DBs, or WR's against their DB's, our OL vs their DL, and vice versa.
If we're able to stop their running game and not turn the ball over ourselves we should win the game. Carr is not going to beat us throwing.
Hopefully our DL matches up and is able to battle their OL to a stalemate
If we're able to stop their running game and not turn the ball over ourselves we should win the game. Carr is not going to beat us throwing.
Hopefully our DL matches up and is able to battle their OL to a stalemate
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Cut the ****. That was one day and one pass. Stop the plural bull**** about reportS and receiverS.
Glow
All-ACC
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Trenches might be even enough that the game flips and comes down to the skill guys, Beck QB advantage vs ND RBs breaking tackles and going hero.
What may surprise ND is Dawson knows how to scheme stuff up and create openings, some ND fans think no one but Jeremiah Smith is getting open against their corners but sometimes the system calls a beater and guys are inevitably open.
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Defense was overrated by a schedule that really played very few good offenses. It’s actually hilarious. ND played 4 top 30 offenses in YPG (0 top 10 offenses)
Here’s what ND did in those 4 games (remember Al Golden is also gone).
Vs UL: 395 yards allowed, 24 points
Vs USC: 557 yards allowed, 35 points
Vs PSU: 339 yards allowed, 24 points
Vs OSU: 445 yards allowed, 34 points
Average: 434 yards allowed & 29 PPG.
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Yes Marcus Freeman got his hand all over the defense… but y’all don’t think Chris Ash still gotta call these plays? He hasn’t been a DC since 2020 when he was fired from Texas. Hasn’t called plays at any level in 5 years… realistically that was a horrid hire by ND. Very lazy.
kccanefan
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Very true. We definitely have the better QB to rely on winning you the game if it's put on their shoulders. If our DL holds up against their run we should be in pretty good shape.
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I watched that USC game and I am sure Dawson being an Air Raid guy he did also to what their plan was. They started out running the ball with Woody Marks heavy but he got knocked out of game with injury fairly early. After that Lincoln attacked them deep multiple times, they kept on throwing fades and really attacked Christian Gray. He was Waldo actually(commentators mentioned it, it was soo bad), They tried the Leonard kid a couple times but he was up to task but they cooked Gray all game long. A bunch of fade throws and most completed but had PI call also. Gray got last laugh tho as game was 35-28 late in 4th with USC driving and they tried one more time in red zone but QB under threw it and Gray picked and 99 yard housed it. Then they drove down again and another 100 yard pick 6 to Safety Watts.
We will attack them, everyone back there aint Revis Island, they gonna have to prove it THIS year Im sure, they are talented but USC and OSU showed they can be beat by passing attacks.
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I will give it a shot both ways, for fun.
QB - Miami with a moderate advantage. Beck is proven and seems to be slept on a bit. Carr is going to be really good, but this is his first start in a hostile environment. Interesting that Miami doesn't think he is mobile, though.
RB - ND with a moderate advantage. ND has the best and deepest room in the country, but Miami's is also very good.
OL - Push. IMO, two of the four top groups in the country.
WR- ND with moderate advantage. I think Miami will eventually be very good. They are just super young. This, IMO, could be ND's best receiving core since...shoot, possibly ever. 2018 would be close.
TE - Push. I think Lofton and Rairdon can both make plays and are very good. Miami's room is likely deeper.
DE - Miami with a slight advantage. I think Bain is the best player on Miami's team and is awfully good. Messidor could be an issue also. ND could eventually be right there, but they are like Miami's WR, awfully young. ND is deeper. They can run out 6 quality DE's.
DT - Push. Interesting that this is quite possibly the position that could decide the game. Both teams have some very nice potential, but largely unproven in this scenario.
LB - ND with the significant advantage. ND has one of the best rooms in the nation. Miami has the kid from Rutgers that is very good. I think ND might be able to take advantage of this group with their backs.
CB - ND with the moderate advantage. ND arguably has the best CB tandem in the country. Miami's should be much improved. Frederique was sensational last year, and Lucas should be solid also.
S- ND with the significant advantage. I think this is arguably Miami's weakest position group. ND is loaded here. I think ND will be one of the top groups in the country again.
K - Push. Both seem to scare their respective fan bases.
P- Miami with a significant advantage. Whoever they put out there will be better. ND's punter is brutal.
OC - ND with the slight advantage. In the OC ratings I saw, Denbrock was first and Shannon was third in the nation.
DC - Push. Both guys with a lot to prove.
Head Coach - ND significant advantage. At this stage you would have to go with Coach Freeman.
This game will come down to who can stop the run and limit turnovers. It should be a fun one.
QB - Miami with a moderate advantage. Beck is proven and seems to be slept on a bit. Carr is going to be really good, but this is his first start in a hostile environment. Interesting that Miami doesn't think he is mobile, though.
RB - ND with a moderate advantage. ND has the best and deepest room in the country, but Miami's is also very good.
OL - Push. IMO, two of the four top groups in the country.
WR- ND with moderate advantage. I think Miami will eventually be very good. They are just super young. This, IMO, could be ND's best receiving core since...shoot, possibly ever. 2018 would be close.
TE - Push. I think Lofton and Rairdon can both make plays and are very good. Miami's room is likely deeper.
DE - Miami with a slight advantage. I think Bain is the best player on Miami's team and is awfully good. Messidor could be an issue also. ND could eventually be right there, but they are like Miami's WR, awfully young. ND is deeper. They can run out 6 quality DE's.
DT - Push. Interesting that this is quite possibly the position that could decide the game. Both teams have some very nice potential, but largely unproven in this scenario.
LB - ND with the significant advantage. ND has one of the best rooms in the nation. Miami has the kid from Rutgers that is very good. I think ND might be able to take advantage of this group with their backs.
CB - ND with the moderate advantage. ND arguably has the best CB tandem in the country. Miami's should be much improved. Frederique was sensational last year, and Lucas should be solid also.
S- ND with the significant advantage. I think this is arguably Miami's weakest position group. ND is loaded here. I think ND will be one of the top groups in the country again.
K - Push. Both seem to scare their respective fan bases.
P- Miami with a significant advantage. Whoever they put out there will be better. ND's punter is brutal.
OC - ND with the slight advantage. In the OC ratings I saw, Denbrock was first and Shannon was third in the nation.
DC - Push. Both guys with a lot to prove.
Head Coach - ND significant advantage. At this stage you would have to go with Coach Freeman.
This game will come down to who can stop the run and limit turnovers. It should be a fun one.
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Very reasonable take and really can’t argue any point. Being the first game of the season, there are lots of unknowns on both sides but also some knowns that you mentioned.
Tho none of these go head to head, good to get perspective. Just a few things, Can you tell me about your LB a lil bit. I see they are highly respected and many speak highly of the group but which player stands out and why? Like I know about your DB room and Moore being the headliner, I can see the play on field but at LB seems like just standard discipline play which is good but who is headliner or two that make this group soo good?
I think our CB tandem and depth will surprise people. Frederique is semi known and got recognition as freshman AA honors but many rave about Lucas probably being just as or more talented. Legit 6'2 with speed, prototype cb and his play has been talked up. You have starters at other schools backing them up who have earned right to play. That DB room has been flipped wit high end talent, wont be surprised we look back and see multiple NFL guys from group.
The OCs wont go head up but cant let Dawson getting back seat after having #1 offense by many and any metric in all the land last year.. Call it even if anything. I know its 20/20 and everyone wants to say it was Cam but I remember vividly, many talking about question marks with Cam and turnovers and fumbles and Mario is QB killer, why he go to QB killer offense, he screwed himself, and he is gunslinger with turnovers. Dawson gave him platform to thrive and he came in system that let him cook. No hand cuffs. Ill take it.
MiamisMoperiestMopes
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Stopped reading after moderate advantage at QB.
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Might as well not play the game - ND in a route!
Seriously, though, I remmeber seeing stuff like this prior to the 2017 game but even moreso. But, nice, informed writeup, nonetheless.
A few nits to pick at:
Disagree with QB - that is as sizeable advantage as one can get. I'm sure Carr can be a fine QB in his career - maybe even later this year- but game 1 at HRS at night? Beck is arguably the best QB in the nation.
The ND moderate advantage at WR is overblown simply b.c your passing game is going to heavily rely on RB/TE. Fields is top notch (we pushed for him hard in the portal) but the rest of your room is TBD. CJ Daniels was one of the top (if not the top) WR in the portal a couple years ago based on his Liberty season and if he's healthy, he's a very good WR.
RB- you acknlowedge it a bit but people are sleeping on Miami's room. Our 3rd string RB from NDSU was the top RB in FCS.
I think the clear advantage you have is with Freeman, imo. I'd also say that your kicker is better. Our kicker has struggled this offseason which is worriesome.
All in all, should be a good game - will most likely be the loudest stadium your team will play in their careers.
EudocimusAlbus
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Love it in here, we are all so freaking pumped for this game. Both of these teams match up well. Looking forward to the match up, but also ****ting my pants lol That first week of Sept could be very good, or suck ***, hoping for the former.
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There is a heavy rotation of 4 LB's. Last year five LB's rotated, and they return four of them. Drayk Bowen is a former 5* entering his Jr year. He is a stud. He is the defensive signal caller. He fills beautifully and is super smart and physical. He really brings the wood. The highest pro prospect is probably Kingston Viliamu-Asa. KVA is incredibly smart and gifted. A significant player as a freshman a year ago. Jaylynn Sneed is another former 5* and is now a senior. Very, very athletic. Very gifted. Plays fast and physical. Jaiden Ausberry is another former high recruit entering his Jr. year. Very versatile. One thing they have in common is they can all really run, they are coached incredibly well, and are very good at block destruction.
I hear you on Dawson. He is very, very good. Denbrock has been widely respected as a top or the top OC in the country for a bit now. Jayden Daniels was just OK until Denbrock helped turn him into the Heisman winner and led LSU to the top scoring O in the country before he left to ND. At ND, he took Riley Leonard's skills and molded them into working to his strengths. Denbrock does a fantastic job of playing to the strengths of his QB's. I agree with you, though. Shannon did the same thing with Ward. Maybe you could say the OC's are a push.
As for your CB's. It sounds like your outside ones will be very solid. Will be curious to see if they try to man up without safety help out there. However, I am hoping ND can do some damage in the slot. ND's slot players are going to be a pleasant surprise, I think, and I don't know how Miami's nickel is. Possibly pretty good. I just haven't heard as much about that spot.
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That is one thing that worries me. That 2017 crowd was an absolute hornet's nest. I would hope Freeman's team is more prepared than Kelly's. I agree about QB. That is a good point. If it was just Carr vs. Beck, its obviously way towards Beck. I think it might even out a bit because Beck is throwing to unproven receivers against arguably the best secondary in the country. With that said, I still give the moderate edge to Beck. Which I mean to be pretty large. Moreso than a slight advantage. I do like Miami's backs. Especially combined with their line. Honestly, that is the #1 concern I have in this game. I worry more about Miami's running game right now. If Miami has success in both, it could be a long night for my Irish.
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I hear you. I explained in the post above, but head to head at this stage, obviously Beck has the big advantage.