Miami Florida vs South Carolina - Independece Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA
Sat 12/27 231 Miami Florida +1½ -115
3:30PM 232 South Carolina -1½ -115
First of all, never play into a 30 cent line.
The game is now Pick-Em. I don't understand that move. Right now I'm leaning to South Carolina. My bowl game philosophy is that everything tends to drift back to the beginning, that preseason ratings are more representative than regular season results. It's been a huge winner since I instituted that system more than 15 years ago, despite early scoffs from my friends. Now they use it also.
You never want to draw a top tier program with high preseason rating and lots of talent that has underachieved. Far preferable to draw a cupcake stiff that played well beyond its actual talent level. That's one of the reasons Georgia Tech struggles in bowl games. Their option allows them to play beyond their talent level during the regular season. In the bowl game they often end up against far superior personnel, plus the opportunity to study the offense for a month. Of course, one time I wanted it to play out that way it did not, when Georgia Tech upset my school USC two years ago. Kiffin didn't bother to prepare for the option and it showed.
South Carolina has a lousy defense statistically, allowing more than 6 yards per play. Much of it was caused by three games -- Texas A&M, Auburn and Tennessee. They did have several competent games allowing 300 or nearby. I expect them to be much better than advertised in the bowl.
Offensively they scored at least 28 in all but three games, and two of those exceptions were against Top 10 defenses Florida and Clemson. They have the correct blueprint of 37 rushes per game and 7.8 yards per pass attempt.
I think we're in trouble. Freshman quarterback with fragile roster and psyche against an SEC roster rated #9 in preseason. We might get away with it but majority trends suggest the other side owns the natural advantages.
