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Miami +4 over TAMU (Fan Duel)

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NC_Canes_11 said:
Lmao so you’re telling me they just make up numbers Sunday morning? Just outta thin air?

Y’all are so dumb. They use the algorithms to set opening lines and totals. They then adjust those lines and totals based on money coming in, both by amounts and who bets.
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No, the numbers are set early, usually Sunday evening,, then move based on a couple of factors. One factor being who everyone is betting on. Points will be added or subtracted to get more bets on one side or the other, to even out the payouts. But professional bettors are the ones who set the lines, then the lines move based on the betting action afterwards.
 
cf3000 said:
No, the numbers are set early, usually Sunday evening,, then move based on a couple of factors. One factor being who everyone is betting on. Points will be added or subtracted to get more bets on one side or the other, to even out the payouts. But professional bettors are the ones who set the lines, then the lines move based on the betting action afterwards.
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You’re ignoring the opening lines. How do they get them? They use algorithms. Everything after that is based on the market.
 
IndayArtHauz said:
Whaaaaaaat. 44 is insane. That’s TAMU winning 24-20ish.

oh wait, that’s basically what I predicted.
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Back to 44.5 this morning. That 44 didn't stick around too long. I have it low scoring too, but I wish I'd have jumped on the 44. That's just way too low for a college game.

I think what they're thinking is Miami has been incredibly run-heavy and one of the least explosive teams in the country, and A&M is basically in the same boat. Vegas is expecting a pillow fight between the offenses with the defenses dominating the game. That's the main reason I'm optimistic as well. If you tell me the game will be low scoring, give me the team with the better QB. I trust him to make less mistakes and be able to make more occasional plays to set up scoring opportunities.
 
Cane since 1060 said:
Jimbo is supposedly known for never losing two in a row. He also has never lost to Miami. But a Mario coached team also went into Columbus and shocked Ohio State.
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What Incredulous GIF by MOODMAN
 
htownkidd said:
2017 big dawg.
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I always love these posts. Not only is it wrong, but could anything be less relevant? If Jimbo went and coached at Charleston Southern, would people say he's never lost to Miami if we played Charleston Southern? And make that a talking point about how we might lose?

Yes, Jimbo, with a loaded FSU team, beat very bad Miami teams from 2010 to 2016. His mediocre 2017 FSU team lost to a decent Miami team. But not a single player or coach from Jimbo's time at FSU remains at Miami. Not a soul. So how would his record vs Miami have any predictive ability on a game where he's now coaching at A&M? Like he put some sort of voodoo spell on us back in the day at FSU that still lingers? I never understand this stuff.
 
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QSTOKES said:
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As a neutral observer, it makes prefect sense to think a coach in his 5th year with a loaded roster playing at home beats a team with a first year head coach with a flawed roster.

Which is why A&M has all the pressure in the world on September 17th while we're playing with house money.
 
QSTOKES said:
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Same idea I based my prediction on. We seem to always get everyone's best effort anyway.. add in a night game on the road in the loudest venue in America with a new staff top to bottom on our end.

Then on top of all of that.. I've always heard you get a teams best performance right after their worst performance and they're still far more talented than us and the speed gap from their offense to our defense is drastic.

My best guess is either ending their season and opening the portal flood gates or we're getting embarrassed. I don't see much of an in-between 1 score type of game happening.

Devil's advocate - they haven't really blown any P5 team out since Jimbo has been there except for South Carolina a couple times and I think Missouri last year.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I always love these posts. Not only is it wrong, but could anything be less relevant? If Jimbo went and coached at Charleston Southern, would people say he's never lost to Miami if we played Charleston Southern? And make that a talking point about how we might lose?

Yes, Jimbo, with a loaded FSU team, beat very bad Miami teams from 2010 to 2016. His mediocre 2017 FSU team lost to a decent Miami team. But not a single player or coach from Jimbo's time at FSU remains at Miami. Not a soul. So how would his record vs Miami have any predictive ability on a game where he's now coaching at A&M? Like he put some sort of voodoo spell on us back in the day at FSU that still lingers? I never understand this stuff.
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Agree, posted something similar in the prediction thread. What these teams/coaches did last year (or several years ago) means nothing on Saturday.
 
It’s early, but sharp money is all over us - per Action Network’s Pro reports…

We’re only getting 46% of the total bets, and yet 99% of the money according to Moneyline bets.

Spread is less stark - 75% of bets, 87% of the money.

Total like @OrangeBowlMagic alluded to Is also seeing sharp action: 74% of bets on the over, but 54% of the money on the under.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
It’s early, but sharp money is all over us - per Action Network’s Pro reports…

We’re only getting 46% of the total bets, and yet 99% of the money according to Moneyline bets.

Spread is less stark - 75% of bets, 87% of the money.

Total like @OrangeBowlMagic alluded to Is also seeing sharp action: 74% of bets on the over, but 54% of the money on the under.
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Sharps loving us. They loved us vs ND in 17 also. Not saying we get anything similar to that, though I am not opposed.

TAMU has lost their last 2 P5 games including their last one to a mediocre LSU squad last year. Yea yea, last year, but it gives you an idea of where the program has been trending, which I feel has some relevance.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
It’s early, but sharp money is all over us - per Action Network’s Pro reports…

We’re only getting 46% of the total bets, and yet 99% of the money according to Moneyline bets.

Spread is less stark - 75% of bets, 87% of the money.

Total like @OrangeBowlMagic alluded to Is also seeing sharp action: 74% of bets on the over, but 54% of the money on the under.
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There was definitely some sharp action on the total for sure. It moved as strangely as I've seen a total move this early in the week.

Most places had it at 48.5 at open or very close to it. By Tuesday, it was bet all the way down to 44. And then immediately as soon as it hit that low water mark, immediately bet back up to 45.5. A lot of movement for a total on a Monday/Tuesday.
 
Just heard a pretty interesting stat.

Road underdogs of 3 to 14 points with an O/U total of 48 or lower, are 573-448 (56.1%) dating all the way back to 2006. So that is a huge sample size there for you degenerates that were looking for more juice to find reasons bet on your team lol.
 
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htownkidd said:
Just heard a pretty interesting stat.

Road underdogs of 3 to 14 points with an O/U total of 48 or lower, are 573-448 (56.1%) dating all the way back to 2006. So that is a huge sample size there for you degenerates that were looking for more juice to find reasons bet on your team lol.
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They could tell me Diaz is coaching A&M this week and I still wouldn't put money on Miami in this one
 
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