Every team starts the year undefeated, but only a handful have a legitimate chance of winning the College Football Playoff.
After a long dry spell, Miami may be returning to that group of teams that can contend for the national championship. The Hurricanes finished 2016 with five straight wins, the first Miami team to do so since 2001, and notched their first bowl win since 2006.
It might seem difficult for the Hurricanes to keep that momentum going since quarterback Brad Kaaya declared for the 2017 NFL draft, but Miami is trending upward in a variety of ways that should allow it to more than offset that loss.
Staying hot on the recruiting trail
The Hurricanes do not lack for elite talent, as Miami ranks third in the ACC over the past five years in four-star recruits (56) and ESPN 300 recruits (45). In 2017, the Hurricanes placed 12th in ESPN's RecruitingNation rankings on the strength of 13 four-star recruits, a mark that ranked 11th nationally, and 10 ESPN 300 recruits (ranked tied for ninth).
Miami won its first bowl game in 10 years in Mark Richt's first season as head coach. Logan Bowles/USA TODAY Sports
Miami's five-year conference recruiting rankings look even stronger when noting the next-highest-ranked ACC team in terms of ESPN 300 recruits is North Carolina with 17. Miami is the only team in the ACC that has stayed close to Florida State and Clemson in terms of signing impact players.
Kaaya will be easier to replace than generally thought
Kaaya will leave Miami as its all-time career leader in passing yards, but this was due more to quantity than quality. Last season, he ranked eighth in the ACC in Total QBR (71.4), sixth in completion percentage (62.0) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.4).
It's also worth noting that Kaaya received a ton of help from his receivers, who contributed 2,042 yards after the catch, ranked second in the conference and sixth among Power 5 quarterbacks last season.
The Hurricanes certainly don't lack for talented prospects to replace Kaaya, as Miami has six skilled candidates set to battle for this job. Depending on how the depth chart plays out, the Hurricanes could have as many as four senior returning starters on the offensive line this season, so whoever takes over at quarterback should also be able to count on elite pass blocking. Miami placed third among Power 5 teams last season in pressure percentage, a metric that tracks how often a quarterback was sacked, under pass rush duress or hit (15.4 percent, per ESPN Stats & Information).
Miami also brings in a potential instant-impact recruit in Navaughn Donaldson, a 6-foot-6, 345-pound prospect who was ranked 89th in the ESPN 300 recruiting rankings.
An improved vertical passing game
Miami loses Stacy Coley, who led the team in receptions (63) and receiving touchdowns (nine) last season. Coley also was the team's go-to vertical pass threat, as he led the Hurricanes with 46 vertical targets (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), vertical receptions (15) and vertical receiving yards (407).
As great as those numbers sound, Coley's 32.6 percent catch rate on vertical targets ranked 39th out of 43 Power 5 wide receivers with 40 or more vertical targets last season. This lack of consistency on downfield throws was a major reason Kaaya ranked ninth in the ACC in vertical yards per attempt (10.0) and 54th out of 59 Power 5 passer-rating qualified quarterbacks in vertical completion percentage (34.1).
Things could be looking up if Ahmmon Richards continues to play as well as he did last season. Richards broke Michael Irvin's record for receiving yards by a freshman in part because he posted a 14.2 YPA mark on vertical passes, easily eclipsing Coley's 8.8 mark. If Richards keeps the production pace at or near this level on a larger vertical target volume, the Hurricanes could actually see significant improvement in this area.
A fearsome front seven
Last season, Miami was the only team to start three true freshmen at linebacker. Any perceived weakness due to inexperience was quickly eliminated, as Michael Pinckney and Shaquille Quarterman both ended the season on ESPN's true freshman All-America team. They totaled six sacks, 31 quarterback pressures, 10 quarterback hurries, 18 quarterback knockdowns and 17.5 tackles for loss. Add Zach McCloud to the mix, and the Hurricanes' linebacker corps ranked second in ESPN's ACC positional rankings.
The defensive line might not be quite as accomplished, but Miami returns everyone in the two-deep. The veteran depth led to a No. 4 rating in ESPN's ACC positional rankings, but the Hurricanes could be even better if Joe Jackson continues to develop. Last year, Jackson led the team in tackles for loss (11.5) and sacks (8.5) despite ranking 13th in defensive snaps played (374, per STATS, LLC). If Jackson is able to produce at the same pace and increase his snap count to the 600-650 level, he will be a strong contender for All-America status at season's end.
The strength of these two units is why Miami ranked 10th among Power 5 teams in yards allowed per rush (3.4), second in percentage of rushes that gained zero or fewer yards (33.1), fourth in yards allowed per rush before first defensive contact (1.5), and fifth in tackles for loss per game (8.3) last season. This front seven could post similar numbers again this season.
Unexpected secondary depth
Miami's defense faces a challenge in the secondary, as the Hurricanes lose both of their starting safeties (Rayshawn Jenkins and Jamal Carter) along with starting cornerback Corn Elder. This trio led the team in defensive snaps, and Elder had the lowest YPA among Miami defensive backs with 10 or more targets (5.1, per STATS, LLC).
As daunting as that sounds, the Hurricanes return Jaquan Johnson and Malek Young, who placed second (5.4) and fifth (6.8), respectively, in YPA allowed last season among Miami defenders who faced 20 or more targets. This group could get help from Amari Carter, a four-star ESPN 300 recruit.
Superb special teams
Mark Richt's teams have a long history of superb special teams play. From 2004 to 2015, Richt's Georgia teams placed 13th among Power 5 teams in ESPN Stats & Information's special teams expected points added (STEPA) metric that measures special teams performance in an expected points framework (204.8).
This trend continued last season, as the Hurricanes' 34.3 STEPA ranked 10th among Power 5 teams. This could be the case again in 2017, as Miami has a fantastic special teams duo in kicker Michael Badgley and punt returner Braxton Berrios. Badgley may end up the most prolific kicker in team history, as he is fourth in school history in points scored (305) and is well within range to break the all-time Miami scoring record (Carlos Huerta, 397). Berrios placed seventh among Power 5 players in punt return average (11.3).
Favorable schedule
The Hurricanes' 2017 schedule includes contests against Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Virginia, four teams that posted a combined 14-34 record last season. Add games against non-Power 5 foes (Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas State and Toledo), and more than half of Miami's games will be against subpar teams.
Miami does have a tough road matchup at Florida State, a team it hasn't defeated since 2009, but the rest of its ACC opponents posted a combined 20-12 conference mark last season. Add it up, and this is definitely the type of schedule that lends itself to potential national title contention.
Bottom line
The Hurricanes have everything in place to post a double-digit win total for the first time since 2003. The jump from there to the College Football Playoff will likely require an ACC championship game win over either Clemson or Florida State, but given the talent level Miami brings to the table this year, that should be considered an attainable goal for this legitimate national title contender.
