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Miami’s 2nd ACC game of season under Mario

LuCane said:
I will also be in attendance.

I have not been present for a road win since 2007 @FSU. Notable awful experiences like ND at soldier field, Teddy Bridgewater in Orlando, and UF multiple times.

Last season, traveled to Dallas for 24 hours explicitly to break the streak, and stood in the rain during pre-game wondering if I should go back to the hotel.

So we’ve got that going against us. Let’s break this f’in streak.
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You went to the wrong dallas trip.
 
USNAVYCANE said:
Also UL ran nothing but trick plays for pretty much the whole game .
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Let’s be honest, as crappy as we played against Louisville last year, it took a guy that had he had a manicure prior to the game, he would not have picked that pass off. It was what, an inch off the ground?
 
Look I think we win and cover, but there is a bit of doubt in the back of my mind. Its already cursed since its a Friday night. Will basically be their home opener - the place will be amped up. We have a bad history with these kind of games and are missing multiple starting defensive backs.

I have a tiny bit of concern that they will be able to beat us vertically (specifically targeting Damari Brown and our linebackers in coverage).

I actually really really like the move of Fitz to CB and JJ starting safety. Makes me feel way more comfortable in this kind of game. I know JJ is a TF, but im already more confident in him at safety than I would be with Brown in coverage.

Allows us to have EOC, and Bryce as boundaries 1 on 1 without needing Damari Brown to cover speedsters.




I think we win and cover, but there is definitely a world where WF comes out hot as **** and has a really effective passing game. Its time for Mario to turn the corner in conference play, and this game is massive for that.
 
Miami04 said:
Friday night could be a bit more of a struggle than people think. Typically under Mario our 2nd ACC game of the season is where we get punched in the mouth and struggle to find our footing and it’s usually our own fault.

2022 - W - held on for a win against a bad VT team that lost its 4th in a row. We jumped out 20-0 before allowing VT to get to 20-14 with the ball and a chance to win. Set a season high in penalties

2023 - L - after a crushing defeat to GT the week before we had to have this UNC game. We played well in the 1st half but were outscored 21-0 in the 3rd quarter to end the game. Set a season high in turnovers

2024 - W- went out to Cal after escaping VT on the crazy Hail Mary. Looked like the game was lost before a dramatic 25 point comeback. Won by 1 point. Lucky to escape but this game showed the path to beat us and that our D was bad. Set a season high in penalties

2025 - L - after looking like the best team in the country for 3 quarters the week before against FSU we came home and laid a huge egg against Louisville. The team could not get out its own way all night. Had a chance to win but a 4th turnover was the end. Set a season high in turnovers.

This season is a little different because it’s the first time Mario has started the year with an ACC game and also had a second one so early in the season. History shows the second ACC game is always tougher than we expect and we usually cause that by shooting ourselves in the foot. Let’s hope Friday this team proves to be different.
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if we go by the trend, this should be a win.
 
Miami04 said:
Friday night could be a bit more of a struggle than people think. Typically under Mario our 2nd ACC game of the season is where we get punched in the mouth and struggle to find our footing and it’s usually our own fault.

2022 - W - held on for a win against a bad VT team that lost its 4th in a row. We jumped out 20-0 before allowing VT to get to 20-14 with the ball and a chance to win. Set a season high in penalties

2023 - L - after a crushing defeat to GT the week before we had to have this UNC game. We played well in the 1st half but were outscored 21-0 in the 3rd quarter to end the game. Set a season high in turnovers

2024 - W- went out to Cal after escaping VT on the crazy Hail Mary. Looked like the game was lost before a dramatic 25 point comeback. Won by 1 point. Lucky to escape but this game showed the path to beat us and that our D was bad. Set a season high in penalties

2025 - L - after looking like the best team in the country for 3 quarters the week before against FSU we came home and laid a huge egg against Louisville. The team could not get out its own way all night. Had a chance to win but a 4th turnover was the end. Set a season high in turnovers.

This season is a little different because it’s the first time Mario has started the year with an ACC game and also had a second one so early in the season. History shows the second ACC game is always tougher than we expect and we usually cause that by shooting ourselves in the foot. Let’s hope Friday this team proves to be different.
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Put an * next to 2023. Game was over until Mario went full blown ******* idiot and Chaney couldn't do his job and hold onto the ball.
 
Penalties:
1/5 vs FAMU
5/50 vs Stanford
Currently 3rd in the country for penalties per game and 7th for fewest penalty yards per game.

7/60 vs Indiana
10/74 vs Ole Miss
0/0 vs OSU
4/30 vs Texas A&M
5/28 vs Pitt

32/7 = 4.6 per game for 35 yards over the last 7 games would have us at 16th and 9th in the country for 2025.

Compared to the full 2025 for Miami of 134 and 128 out of 134. Maybe Mario finally realized, the team has to have fewer penalties. It helps when a coach has talent across the roster as he can pull a player and let them sit.

Turnovers
1 INT by Luke
2025 TO Margin: 17th
2026 TO Margin: 110th at -1. I believe the national stats are not correct as they have Brown with a fumble vs Stanford when in fact that was not a fumble but a penalty vs Stanford. Removing that has Miami at 0 Margin and 70th in the country. With Mensah's past, I have a feeling we will be ok here.

Mensah's stats 12 INT for 64 TDs in his 2+ years. He was also responsible for 14 fumbles and 2 rushing TDs. 8 at Duke, 6 at Tulane.
Beck- 32 INT for 88 TDs in college. 12INT /30TD at Miami. 14 fumbles over his last 3 years of college. 2 lost at Miami, 7 in 2024, 5 in 2023.
Ward- 24 INT for 91 TDs in college. 7 INT/39 TD at Miami. 22 fumbles over his last 3 years of college. 4 lost at Miami, 12 in 2023, and 7 in 2022

I'd expect Mensah to go from 8 to 2-3 fumbles for the year. I'd expect Ward like INT/TD stats, if not better due to the surrounding cast and better defense. I don't think we have a RB with a fumbling problem and if we do we have lots of talent in that room to let them sit. TO Margin should be top in the country if our D can start producing some more. I don't expect that vs Wake but do expect it vs Clemson, FSU, UNC, VT, Pitt... teams that are in the game for longer and force plays.
 
Miami04 said:
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There’s going to be a game this year we drop or almost drop where we are a huge favorite. (Mainly because we’re going to be a huge favorite in almost every game). I’m not saying it’s this Friday but against an excellent coach who won 9 games last year and has a better QB this year, my concern level Friday is not zero.

On paper we should cake walk to 11-1. Also on paper we’re going for our 15th ACC title.
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What’s your definition of “huge favorite”? Are we talking like 9-10 points or three touchdowns or more?

Because recent history says that Miami will drop a game against an opponent they’re predicted to beat but not an opponent they’re predicted to blow out.


We were favored by 12 at home against Louisville and 8.5 on the road at SMU.
 
I think this team gets off on traveling to play games on the road.

They adopted the 1 vs 100,000 mentality headed to College Station, and then rode that mantra through the Cotton and Fiesta Bowls. Playing the title game at home was detrimental in that regard, especially when you consider our fans were outnumbered in our own stadium.
 
We're winning bc the offense can throw at will.

But...

Will we stall out our drives by running up the middle?

Will the defense get picked apart by short quick passes?

Will Lopez roll out and beat our ends in containment constantly?

Will Lopez run effectively?

This is more of a test for the defense bc film study for this game is ridiculously easy.
 
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