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Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review
- Thread starter TriStarCane
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TriStarCane
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I hope so man.
Glow
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I have a laundry list of gripes with Mario but if the idea is Ed Orgeron and Gene Chizik did anything that Mario can't do then I need specifics to buy that idea I won't buy that from data set augury.
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Since no one answered this, I already made a post about this in another thread, but I have no issues addressing a valid ?.
Mario from 2018-2021 would be responsible for the recruiting classes of 2018-2021, but NFL draft classes of 2019-2022.
First I’ll do Mario Oregon vs. Miami 2018-2021.
1. Avg. Recruiting Class Rank (UO-10th vs. Miami-12th)
2. Total Draft Picks (UO-14 vs. Miami-14)
Oregon had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
Miami had: 2 (1st), 3 (4th), 4 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
Let’s compare bro-styles.
Mario Oregon vs. Michigan 2018-2021.
1. Avg. Recruiting Class Rank: (UO-10th vs. UofM-14th)
2. Total Draft Picks (UO-14 vs. UofM-28)
Oregon had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
UofM had: 6 (1st), 2 (2nd), 5 (3rd), 2 (4th), 5 (5th), 7 (6th), 1 (7th)
——-One More (b/c I think u’re getting the point)——
Mario Oregon vs. ND 2018-2021
1. Avg. Recruiting Class Rank (UO-10th vs. ND-13th)
2. Total Draft Picks (UO-14 vs. ND-23)
Oregon had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
ND had: 2 (1st), 5 (2nd), 4 (3rd), 4 (4th), 4 (5th), 2 (6th), 2 (7th)
Obviously it’s unfair to compare Mario to Saban, Smart, Day or Dabo during this period b/c those guys significantly out recruited him, but looking at this where we continue to pour champagne on ourselves b/c of recruiting rankings, well u can draw ur own conclusions.
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There’s a talent identification and/or development gap when compared to Michigan and ND. Is that correct as that’s the conclusion I’m drawing?
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Mnhurricane
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Thanks for that- great post from you as always. About what I expected to see sadly I must have been busy in the cesspool of another thread to catch this.
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Not relly but based on these several numbers: yes.
And it’s a pretty staggering disparity of output when comparing with more or less similarly ranked input (or even us having slightly better recruiting classes).
Either and/or (while at Oregon):
1. Overrated at talent acquisition
2. Overrated at developing what he has
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You know I have the utmost respect for your knowledge and insight Relly but to me, this is another apples and oranges comparison. Oregon is a somewhat similar program to Miami - the main exception being the 5 improbable national championships the Canes have verses zero for Oregon. Michigan is the winningest CFB program in history and Notre Dame (as much as I hate to admit) is one of the most prominent CFB programs in history.
The Harbaugh slurpers have now given him a pass thanks to his recent national championship although it took him 9 years to get there and not without controversy. Before Jimmy’s NC the other night, Michigan hadn’t won one since 1997 - longer than Miami’s drought.
Notre Dame hasn’t won an NC since 1988. Nevertheless, both Michigan and ND continue to recruit at a high level regardless of who may be the HC due to their LONG history of success. Oregon’s “success” is relatively recent and Miami’s is now in the distant past with a somewhat controversial image.
I believe there are countless variables (too many to even consider) that contribute to the success, or failure, of any CFB program. This doesn’t give Mario a pass. He’s been a HC long enough and now has the resources at Miami that were never available in the past. This season will give us an indication whether or not Mario can get over the hump.
TriStarCane
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They won more games than they lost for one
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If a coach has three top 10 recruiting classes in a row, what is the success rate of the coach? That is stat that is most important.Long post with numbers and stuff. Pop your adderall and lock in
This post is the result of something I looked into after an intriguing post from @JayCane20 in the Romberg thread. It’s been discussed before but just how soon would you know if you have a championship level coach?
This is 100% on the nose. Let’s take a 25 year stroll through recent coaching history. We are going to address one of the biggest myths in football fandom: “it takes time to build a championship.” This is, bluntly, horse **** and has been for almost my whole life. While timeline of an achieved championship varies, the data points show that you will know if you have a strong coach within 2 years in modern college football. Let’s look at the table below to see how every championship level coach (that’s still the standard, right?) compares through their first two full seasons
For this jaunt through history, i went back to every coach that has won a title in the post poll champ era (BCS + CFP). I used a couple of key indicators of success that are uncontroversial: overall record, record vs ranked teams, % of games vs ranked opponents, top 12 finishes (since that would be a playoff berth now), and post season record. This spans different championship structures and multiple rule changes. The results all show the same thing: championship coaches do the unimaginable…they win. And they do it pretty much right away. After looking at this you will come to the horrific conclusion that is plain to see: Mario will need to be a statistical outlier in order to win big here.
Coach Overall Record vs Top 25 % games vs ranked Top 12 Finish Post Season Record School Prior Record - 2 yr Cristobol 12-13 1-5 24% 0 0-1 15-8 Saban (AL) 19-8 7-5 44% 1 1-1 16-9 Smart 21-7 6-5 39% 1 1-1 19-6 Dabo 15-12 2-6 29% 0 1-0 17-9 Orgeron 19-7 7-4 42% 1 1-1 17-8* Urban (OSU) 24-2 5-2 27% 2 1-0 18-8* Harbaugh 20-6 4-4 30% 2 1-1 12-13 Jimbo 19-8 2-4 22% 0 2-0 16-10* Chizik* 22-5 7-3 37% 1 2-0 14-11 Urban (UF)* 22-4 7-3 41% 2 2-0 15-9 Miles 22-4 8-4 46% 2 2-0 22-4 Brown 18-8 4-7 42% 0 1-1 12-12 Carroll 17-8 8-5 52% 1 1-1 11-13 Saban (LSU) 18-7 6-4 40% 1 2-0 7-15 Tressel* 21-5 7-3 38% 1 1-1 14-10 Coker* 24-1 9-1 40% 2 1-1 20-5 Stoops 20-5 7-1 32% 1 1-1 9-14 Bowden 15-8 1-2 13% 0 1-0 4-18 Fulmer 17-6-1 5-5-1 45% 1 1-1 18-5-2
Take aways
- There is not a single metric that has Mario on the path to a championship based on the historical record of coaches that have achieve that since 1998
-He would be the only coach in the last 25 years to win a national title with a losing record in his first two seasons. The second lowest winning % (Dabo at 55%) is still 7 points higher than Mario. The average total victories across a championship coach’s first 2 years is 19.6. Mario clocks in at a robust 12…over 60% off the pace in total wins
- Mario’s record vs Top 25 teams would be the lowest of any coach that won a national championship since 1998. The only other coach with as few wins vs ranked teams is Bowden, who coached before all the schools were integrated and we were just getting done fighting in Nam
- …and what’s worse, Mario’s schedule difficulty is bottom 3. He has lost more games against a softer schedule than only two coaches (both FSU coaches btw…). Mario doesn’t win against ranked teams or ****** teams. Every other coach has at least 2 wins vs top 25 teams and 12 coaches had *gasp* winning records against top 25 teams!
- 14 out of 18 championship coaches had a Top 12, or playoff level, finish in their first 2 seasons. 5 of them would have gone back to back in their first two years. The only modern coaches who didn’t ended up landing prolific QBs to win: Dabo with Watson, Jimbo with Winston, Mack with VY. Bowden is again the the other one and he needed 17 years to win a title. That’s just not reality anymore. Or Maybe we are on a 20 year plan unless you think transfers from Albany will win us a ship
- Something I found interesting was that every championship coach had won at least one bowl or playoff game in their first 2 years…we have a problem with that as well. Bowl games are totally different now, but there is some value in prepping kids to play in big games, right?
- Some guys really didn’t get the memo about having to build. Four coaches won national titles in their first 2 seasons. Weirdos. 3 of the 4 inherited teams with worse 2 year prior records than Mario did with Miami. The only guys that inherited a wagon were Coker and Miles. None of them had the portal, either.
But TriStar, you ignorant ****. Miami was in way worse shape than all those other programs! About that. Our two season record preceding our new coach was on par with the other programs for the most part. The average two year win total of these teams was 14.5. Ours was 15. In fact, 6 coaches inherited losing records and 4 were hired after major scandals. I don’t think that narrative holds. We had been off penalties for almost 10 years at time of hire. We also have never had more financial support than now. Culture is subjective and I doubt our culture was worse than many of these other schools when the change was made.
But he can recruit! Yeah - so could all these guys. Saban, Smart, Urban are some of the best to ever do it. No one on this list was talent starved. He recruits better than most, but it has not been accompanied with wins like his peers
Okay, so now that you’re depressed, here are possibilities for winning that would be basically small miracles in my assessment
- Mario changes his entire game day coach philosophy, hires top shelf assistance and gives them full autonomy while he works as a CEO and focuses on remaining an elite talent acquisition program …lol
- Mario lands a generational QB like Dabo or Jimbo while landing top 5 classes …I don’t love our chances with the first part.
- Deus ex machina that changes the entire landscape of the sport and old data points become irrelevant. This actually has a higher likelihood of occurring than the other two points, especially with the portal, NIL, Congress, and coaches retiring and leaving.
My take is that we do not have a championship coach and might be further away from it than when Richt retired. Here is hoping this thread gets violently thrown into my face and it’s not prophetic because it doesn’t look awesome. This is my mopery rosebud. God speed
Comparing Mario to other coaches in history seems silly in that there are too many variables that the comparisons can't be thought of as legitimate.
Mario's whole philosophy is repeated top 10 recruiting classes. When that occurs in history, how often is the coach not successful?
Glow
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No I mean like "coached special teams better, analysts dealt with opponents better, did [some coaching thing] that Mario is incapable of , didn't motion in slot WRs to block in condensed formation, had more than 2 favorite running plays, didn't eat pizza with milk" something that has contact with a deeper layer of detail.
You think Mario is going under .500 with that 2019 LSU roster? That would be impressive.
e :"Recruited a good QB" might end up being the thing actually, now that I think about it.
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We’re talking draft picks vs. recruiting classss, bro, nothing else. I didn’t talk about games, winning, etc.
Furthermore, Oregon was successful before Mario, my man. Lol. Not sure where this new thought process is coming from that UO became semi successful after Mario getting there. They were very successful under Belotti, then Chip, then Helfrich, before having a 2 yr slide between Helfrich’s last season - Taggart’s 1st b4 Mario took over.
But once again, just like I did earlier in this thread when I said let’s just compare Mario to his predecessors vs. other schools/coaches since that’s the new escape clause, let’s compare Mario recruiting classes to his predecessors during their times there. I can only go back to 2000 where data was provided.
First I’ll do Mario Oregon vs. Belotti 2000-2003.
1. Avg. Recruiting Class Rank (UO-10th vs. Belotti-33rd)
2. Total Draft Picks (UO-14 vs. Belotti-14)
Oregon had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
Belotti had: 1 (1st), 3 (2nd), 1 (3rd), 4 (4th), 1 (5th), 2 (6th), 2 (7th)
Mario Oregon vs. Belotti 2004-2008*.
1. Avg. Recruiting Class Rank (UO-10th vs. Belotti-26th)
2. Total Draft Picks (UO-14 vs. Belotti-18)
Oregon had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
Belotti had: 2 (1st), 4 (2nd), 1 (3rd), 1 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 4 (7th)
*2008 was Belotti’s last season
Mario Oregon vs. Kelly 2009-2012.
1. Avg. Recruiting Class Rank (UO-10th vs. Kelly-17th)
2. Total Draft Picks (UO-14 vs. Kelly-13)
Oregon had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
Kelly had: 2 (1st), 3 (2nd), 1 (3rd), 2 (4th), 1 (5th), 3 (6th), 1 (7th)
Mario Oregon vs. Helfrich 2013-2016.
1. Avg. Recruiting Class Rank (UO-10th vs. Helfrich-21st)
2. Total Draft Picks (UO-14 vs. Helfrich-11)
Oregon had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (4th), 3 (5th), 3 (6th), 2 (7th)
Helfrich had: 3 (1st), 1 (2nd), 2 (3rd), 1 (4th), 1 (5th), 3( 7th)
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Never said Oregon wasn’t successful before Mario got there. I did say Oregon and Miami were somewhat similar in that they aren’t blue blood programs and to compare either to the likes of Michigan or Notre Dame in NFL draft picks, recruiting classes, wins and losses or whatever other data set you choose, leaves out many intangibles that can’t be numerically measured.
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Honestly Miami was up there in NFL draft picks above the vote blue bloods for a long time. Our recruiting has been on par with them as far as 247, rivals, ect for a long time. All-time wins Miami isn't near Bama or Michigan. Last quarter of the century 20th until now we are comparable (and more Rings). Miami really is a blue blood at this point.
Yes all data sets leave things out. What can we really learn from the OPs post? What the last 25 years of championship coaches have done with their teams. Some of them were complete rebuilds.
Nothing is saying Mario can't. Just highly unlikely.
Don't worry, when we beat Florida 28-3b riding for 300yds I'll be in the 15-0 bandwagon. It will only last until conference play starts sadly
It took Butch Davis 6 years to build our last championship team
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Glow
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If the data is informative under a 4-team playoff it can still be informative under a 12-team playoff, the heuristic should not be seen as a hard-and-fast rule under either condition though but in the long run and in the aggregate it will probably still tend to be true that new coaches that go on to have tremendous success tend to show something in the first two years.
If we were making betting futures the question would be if you are the house are you gonna give me astronomical favorable odds against Mario winning the ACC, even under the conditions of "good trenches + good QB" , based on Mario's 12-13 record to start his Canes career? My take is you are making a mistake and putting too much value in your heuristic if you give me those odds and I will take the Mario side of that bet.
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Respectfully, this board loves context so let’s talk context
1. Is Mario dealing w/ a 30 scholly sanction or nah?
2. This ain’t 25 yrs ago; the landscape of CFB have changed immensely, which is y a coach can take sub .500 teams to the CFP in the blink of an eye
3. Even w/ Butch needing time, again, b/c Miami was hit w/ a ridiculous penalty, he still was 17-6 his first two yrs, 12-2 in conference w/ a bowl win
So for the last time, can we pls stop trying to compare Mario w/ Butch or The 2022-23 Canes w/ the 1995-96 Canes?
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Im mot buying this. Dont be lazy. List all of the variables
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Nah.
and 
my ***. Variables aint **** but weak excuses that no one getting paid a 6 to 7 figures should be given.
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