Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review

[DTP]

Kirby took his team to the NC game in year 2 and was a halftime qb switch from the other team (coached by his former boss and mentor) and deep pass in OT away from winning the title. Kirby could've very well had 3 titles already and would have likely gotten his 4th this year. He and Mario are not the same. Kirby in 2 seasons built what Mario might do in 4 or 5.

Once again, What Kirby had inherited at Georgia was miles above what we had at Miami. I'm not just talking about players. I'm talking about infrastructure, long-term recruiting success and huge amounts of money. I mean, Mario was able to go 12-2 and win the Pac 12 and Rose Bowl in his second season at Oregon. Mostly because Oregon wasn't the complete train wreck that Miami has been for two decades. We're still not anywhere near Georgia's level but at least we're more competitive on terms of being serious about our football program.

 

[RightSaidFred]

Granted, the n is not large. But we are talking about 25 years of outcomes here across 2 championship structures. It’s held true for a quarter century and through all the changes of the post-poll era. It’s not a perfect sample size but I don’t think you can scoff at it either

25 years of outcomes works against your premise, not for it. It means that a significant number of those 18 coaches coached in eras that were very different than today, so not only is the sample size small, the situations aren't all apples to apples.

I'm not ****ting on your analysis at all, I think it's interesting. But I think we shouldn't advertise it as predictive because this isn't the kind of data set that you can draw a ton of strong conclusions from

 

[RightSaidFred]

He could easily add in the final 4 coaches for the same time frame & it’s likely to tell the same story. What is a good enough sample size for you?

This isn’t baseball where you can easily turn around a 1 for 18 to start of the season with another 400 at bats to go.

OP agreed with me.

 

[TriStarCane]

25 years of outcomes works against your premise, not for it. It means that a significant number of those 18 coaches coached in eras that were very different than today, so not only is the sample size small, the situations aren't all apples to apples.

I'm not ****ting on your analysis at all, I think it's interesting. But I think we shouldn't advertise it as predictive because this isn't the kind of data set that you can draw a ton of strong conclusions from

To be fair, I said in my OP that one of the ways “out” is that the new world of CFB makes this data set irrelevant. I think there is a strong possibility of this, and honestly might be our only hope. A lot of people have brought up Sark or Norvell. If they win a champion they would be considered outliers to this data group. It’s not unreasonable, but also hasn’t happened yet.

 

[DTP]

The minimum expectation was 15 wins. So, 7-5 and 8-4 and with better on field coaching, in reality it should’ve been 16 or 17 wins.

I don’t think 15-17/18 were unfair expectations for years 1 and 2. That should’ve easily been achieved while still implementing the long term strategy.

Let’s not forget - 3 wins could’ve swung in the opposite direction making his current record worse (UVA twice and Clemson).

Yeah. he's taken what's essentially an 8 win team and made them a 6 win team.

 

[PIPO]

OP agreed with me.

He agreed on the time frame and size but he’s still confident in what the data says.

You made a point about eras: IMO, this era of team building is harder with the portal and NIL, which actually works against the probability of Mario being able to successfully team build vs say, 4-5 years ago, hence his ability to win games.

It negates a portion of his one true strength: recruiting.

 

[RightSaidFred]

To be fair, I said in my OP that one of the ways “out” is that the new world of CFB makes this data set irrelevant. I think there is a strong possibility of this, and honestly might be our only hope. A lot of people have brought up Sark or Norvell. If they win a champion they would be considered outliers to this data group. It’s not unreasonable, but also hasn’t happened yet.

I don't think I would say it's irrelevant, would just say that there's a large margin for error and room for a lot of variability.

Another, very simple, but equally valid way to look at the same data set would be to say that it shows how uncommon it is for a coach to take over a program that's a complete dumpster fire and turn it in to a champion. Normally, these championship programs have championship groundwork already laid. Becuase I would say most, if not all of those coaches took over better situations than the one Manny left behind at Miami.

And if you think about it, that makes sense. Fans, university administrators, and boosters are impatient. They want fast results. So often times, you can have situations like the one in Florida where one coach laid the groundwork (Zook) while another reaped the rewards (Urban). (Butch/Coker, etc). Or like the one in FSU, where the championship coach (Jimbo) took over from another championship coach (Bowden). (Miles/Saban etc)

I also can't find another example of a program that invested 4x as much in their championship coach as in the previous one. Why is that relevant? Because it shows that these other situations were still where the school was investing, still had strong infratstructure, even prior to having a championship coach. Ohio State and Michigan, for example.

Miami is already a "statistical outlier" because we went from not investing a dime in football and having a mom and pop operation, to investing big. Almost overnight. It was always going to be a slow build here, because we're starting from a different place. He has a long contract for a reason.

 

[RightSaidFred]

He agreed on the time frame and size but he’s still confident in what the data says.

You made a point about eras: IMO, this era of team building is harder with the portal and NIL, which actually works against the probability of Mario being able to successfully team build vs say, 4-5 years ago, hence his ability to win games.

It negates a portion of his one true strength: recruiting.

Why, because you think kids will portal out? I mean it's possible, but I don't think it's as much of a thing as people make it out to be. Look at Georgia, they're completely stacked. Yet they don't have droves of kids transfering out every year.

You'll always keep the majority of your best talent because your best talent will be on the field or will have a clear path to getting on the field.

The other thing is I think this narrative gets thrown out there that Mario's only strength is recruiting, but that's false IMO. He's also the best offensive line coach in America. He and Miribal. I mean the line he had at Alabama was maybe the greatest of all time, certainly the greatest in Alabama history. That's not for nothing, IMO. You can build your team around that, around the line of scrimmage, and that's obviously the plan to do so. But that's a slower process just because it's a grown man's position.

 

[PIPO]

Why, because you think kids will portal out? I mean it's possible, but I don't think it's as much of a thing as people make it out to be. Look at Georgia, they're completely stacked. Yet they don't have droves of kids transfering out every year.

You'll always keep the majority of your best talent because your best talent will be on the field or will have a clear path to getting on the field.

The other thing is I think this narrative gets thrown out there that Mario's only strength is recruiting, but that's false IMO. He's also the best offensive line coach in America. He and Miribal. I mean the line he had at Alabama was maybe the greatest of all time, certainly the greatest in Alabama history. That's not for nothing, IMO. You can build your team around that, around the line of scrimmage, and that's obviously the plan to do so. But that's a slower process just because it's a grown man's position.

That’s a good point about what his strength is in regards to his and Maribal’s o-line performance and coaching. No doubt.

It can be argued that some of that gets negated when he meddles in the offense. When he makes it predictable by forcing 12 & 13 man personnel because it tips the play call since they always run out of those formations. He also forces the run vs allowing for creativity because he just wants to be fyzical!

But I will agree with your point about Mario just not being a good recruiter but a good OL coach as well.

 

[GladeCane]

Way too many variables to compare. Don’t try.

Statistically worthless, but fun nonetheless.

 

[DTP]

That’s a good point about what his strength is in regards to his and Maribal’s o-line performance and coaching. No doubt.

It can be argued that some of that gets negated when he meddles in the offense. When he makes it predictable by forcing 12 & 13 man personnel because it tips the play call since they always run out of those formations. He also forces the run vs allowing for creativity because he just wants to be fyzical!

But I will agree with your point about Mario just not being a good recruiter but a good OL coach as well.

This is my biggest gripe with the "fyzical" mindset. It's not enough to dominate the run game with misdirection and clever play calling. You literally have to tell your opponent "HEY WE'RE GOING TO RUN IT RIGHT AT YOU!!!!!!!" and out fyzical them. It's bull**** fake tough guy crap that dumb people fawn over.

 

[Gsugradcanefan]

Once again, What Kirby had inherited at Georgia was miles above what we had at Miami. I'm not just talking about players. I'm talking about infrastructure, long-term recruiting success and huge amounts of money. I mean, Mario was able to go 12-2 and win the Pac 12 and Rose Bowl in his second season at Oregon. Mostly because Oregon wasn't the complete train wreck that Miami has been for two decades. We're still not anywhere near Georgia's level but at least we're more competitive on terms of being serious about our football program.

Then how do you explain how a lesser Miami head coach (Diaz) record wise outperformed Mario with nowhere near the financial support and resources? So far Diaz has done a better job getting a bunch of JAGs to perform than Mario has. We can talk all day about Mario's recruiting successes (not taking anything away from him on that end), supposedly tougher team, building for the long haul (which remains to be seen) etc, but at the end of the day you are what your record says you are. Those coaches you mentioned may have had more resources at their programs but at the end of the day you still have to coach.

 

[423Hurricane]

I don't think I would say it's irrelevant, would just say that there's a large margin for error and room for a lot of variability.

Another, very simple, but equally valid way to look at the same data set would be to say that it shows how uncommon it is for a coach to take over a program that's a complete dumpster fire and turn it in to a champion. Normally, these championship programs have championship groundwork already laid. Becuase I would say most, if not all of those coaches took over better situations than the one Manny left behind at Miami.

And if you think about it, that makes sense. Fans, university administrators, and boosters are impatient. They want fast results. So often times, you can have situations like the one in Florida where one coach laid the groundwork (Zook) while another reaped the rewards (Urban). (Butch/Coker, etc). Or like the one in FSU, where the championship coach (Jimbo) took over from another championship coach (Bowden). (Miles/Saban etc)

I also can't find another example of a program that invested 4x as much in their championship coach as in the previous one. Why is that relevant? Because it shows that these other situations were still where the school was investing, still had strong infratstructure, even prior to having a championship coach. Ohio State and Michigan, for example.

Miami is already a "statistical outlier" because we went from not investing a dime in football and having a mom and pop operation, to investing big. Almost overnight. It was always going to be a slow build here, because we're starting from a different place. He has a long contract for a reason.

The data is an interesting review but as I’ve said many times, the variables of each situation don’t tell the entire story. Miami fans expecting the same results as UGA, Bama, Michigan, etc in year 2-3 of Mario’s tenure are totally ignoring the obvious differences with each situation. Wins and losses don’t tell the entire story.

 

[DTP]

Then how do you explain how a lesser Miami head coach (Diaz) record wise outperformed Mario with nowhere near the financial support and resources? So far Diaz has done a better job getting a bunch of JAGs to perform than Mario has. We can talk all day about Mario's recruiting successes (not taking anything away from him on that end), supposedly tougher team, building for the long haul (which remains to be seen) etc, but at the end of the day you are what your record says you are. Those coaches you mentioned may have had more resources at their programs but at the end of the day you still have to coach.

Because Manny Diaz hired a much better football coach to be his offensive coordinator and got the **** out of the way. Manny would not have made it halfway through season two if he hadn't hired Lashlee. Mario has obviously dropped the ball on both coordinator hires in 2022 and the jury is out on 2023's hires. I'm beginning to think you didn't read the post I made that you originally quoted because I said that Mario's actual football coaching has been pretty terrible.

 

[Manfred_Cane]

this relates to Mario cause one of the options is that he lets his staff be themselves and what they want to run, instead of putting his meddling hands in the offensive scheme.

 

[Gsugradcanefan]

Because Manny Diaz hired a much better football coach to be his offensive coordinator and got the **** out of the way. Manny would not have made it halfway through season two if he hadn't hired Lashlee. Mario has obviously dropped the ball on both coordinator hires in 2022 and the jury is out on 2023's hires. I'm beginning to think you didn't read the post I made that you originally quoted because I said that Mario's actual football coaching has been pretty terrible.

No i read it, which is why i made the response, because above all else, wins and losses are the driver. Not moral victories about the team playing hard and not giving up, being in every game etc. Those are feel good emotions, but dont mean jack sh*t in the grand scheme of things. Most people are hoping for a drastic turnaround in year 3 (10 wins minimum) but given his first 2 years here, a strong contingent on fans on this site are less than optimistic about his ability to deliver. It's crazy that the highest paid coach in the history of the program with the greatest amount of resources given to him is constantly having his hand held and training wheels applied by some people on this site.

 

[DTP]

No i read it, which is why i made the response, because above all else, wins and losses are the driver. Not moral victories about the team playing hard and not giving up, being in every game etc. Those are feel good emotions, but dont mean jack sh*t in the grand scheme of things. Most people are hoping for a drastic turnaround in year 3 (10 wins minimum) but given his first 2 years here, a strong contingent on fans on this site are less than optimistic about his ability to deliver. It's crazy that the highest paid coach in the history of the program with the greatest amount of resources given to him is constantly having his hand held and training wheels applied by some people on this site.

Then you saw where I said they while his plans for the long run may be sound, he's done very little to win in the short term. I'm a firm believer that you don't have to hit rock bottom to get better. You can build up your program for the future without sacrificing the present. His insistence on being "fyszical" on offense even without the personnel to do so is the perfect example. He's certainly failed to produce wins in the short term as he's taken what's essentially an 8 win team and made them a 6 win team. Our only hope is that the talent infusion can eventually carry us past the point where we don't need great coaching to win games. Like Georgia.

 

[Bird4um]

Statistically worthless, but fun nonetheless.

Can’t argue there.

 

[Bird4um]

Way too many variables to compare. Don’t try.

I’ll say it again. And I’ll die on this hill.

THE INVENTION OF THE INTERNET KILLED MIAMI FOOTBALL!!

 

[Scrape into the C Gap]

I get the numbers, but a lot needs to go into a program winning a national title that go beyond looking at the first 2 years of a coach's record compared to the previous two years.

Even crazy success in the first few years isn't a guarantee for a national title. Look at Ryan Day's, Lincoln Riley's, or Dan Lanning's records in their first two years. I know it doesn't disprove anything, but two-year success also doesn't guarantee a national title. I'd be willing to bet that at least 2 of 3 of Day, Riley, and Lanning never win national titles.

Secondly, the list includes all-time great coaches and some less-than-stellar coaches. Harbaugh, Saban, Meyer, Carroll, Bowden and Stoops are all-time great coaches. They're all first-ballot College Football Hall of Famers. Carroll is a borderline NFL Hall of Famer. Then, there's some real mediocre head coaches on this list like Coker, Chizik, and Orgeron that just happened to catch lightning in a bottle. Coker is a flag away from being a 2x national championship coach!

There are also guys I consider to be borderline good-ish like Fulmer and Jumbo. There's a gamut of coaches, the great ones will eventually get a title. But sometimes you need either time to be great or you need time to get some extra luck.

I think a guy like Mario needs time to win a title at Miami. And I don't mean 2 or 3 more years. I'm talking about 10-15 years in the mold of a Bobby Bowden or Tom Osborne. There are different ways to go about this. I'm sure there are metrics out there that would've predicted that Harbaugh would be a statistical outlier to win a title just as with Dabo. The difference with Harbaugh is that he stuck around, learned, adapted (in more ways than one), and finally broke through after getting humiliated two years in a row in the CFP.