Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review

[Yoyo82]

How was Harbaugh innovative?

He just stacked the trenches and kicked the **** out of you.

See the chart from the original post. Harbaugh is a much better coach than Mario. He took a 12-13 team and went 20-6 the next two years without the transfer portal and without NIL. Mario took a 15-8 team and went 12-13. With a significantly changed roster.

 

[RightSaidFred]

So the group that lost to FIU(I called for Mannys head before that) beat FSU so bad they fired their coach.

The group that got blown out by MTSU two years later was Mario Mario coached and also got blown out by 42 points to FSU.

Can you not read the chart? Championship level coaches start winning with the loser players. Are you going to be making this excuse forever?

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FSU just lost their last game by 60 points, they got their own problems.

This is a slow build because we’re building from the line of scrimmage. Different teams are built in different ways, Mario builds his around the o line and d line,

Line of scrimmage is a grown man game. You gotta wait until the Francis Mauigoa class are Juniors before you really know what we’ve got in Mario.

I get why people are impatient and I ain’t mad about it, I fully understand. But I’m just giving you the truth. The LOS was absolutely a mess when Mario got here and it takes a few years of recruiting and maturing there to get the tatand depth.

Our talent last year and even this coming year is young.

 

[mcnaire2004]

FSU just lost their last game by 60 points, they got their own problems.

This is a slow build because we’re building from the line of scrimmage. Different teams are built in different ways, Mario builds his around the o line and d line,

Line of scrimmage is a grown man game. You gotta wait until the Francis Mauigoa class are Juniors before you really know what we’ve got in Mario.

I get why people are impatient and I ain’t mad about it, I fully understand. But I’m just giving you the truth. The LOS was absolutely a mess when Mario got here and it takes a few years of recruiting and maturing there to get the tatand depth.

Our talent last year and even this coming year is young.

That's barely relevant. Championship coaches fund way to start winning games even with loser players. The slow build hasn't been a thing for 40 years. However you want to frame the slow build isn't done by championship teams. The data is there.

I guess I can phrase it this way: Can you name me 1 coach to win a championship in the last 25 years that had needed a slow build before he started to win games? Because everyone has done at least 1 9 win season in their first two years.

What makes you think Mario will be the first?

 

[caneworld]

Mario needs to do one thing ... hire the best coordinators and stay he11 out of their way... switch to some tunes on his headphones on the sidelines and chill.

 

[Mnhurricane]

@TriStarCane I’ll ask you since you did a nice job with this post involving a lot of work.

Did Mario put a high number of players in the league to go along with his “elite” recruiting? Would be curious to see a breakdown of other schools/coaches and if his evals are on point. Feels like lanning dumped about 40% of that roster right away at Oregon.

Maybe he doesn’t have success because he can’t coach himself out of a paper bag and also is overrated at talent acquisition? Genuinely curious if true

 

[bandhammer]

Sadly enough, I think the comparison is Fisher.

 

[423Hurricane]

Those coaches had to leave to win, though. I’m not sure why it’s not working for Mario here but it’s not. I don’t think that’s debatable right now. What this question asks is will Mario be able to break a 25 year trend OR is this data completely irrelevant due to the new paradigm.

I don’t think your data is completely Irrelevent. However, as I’ve said many times, it’s an apples and oranges comparison all things considered. Dozens of variables contribute to success or failure and now add in NIL and the transfer portal and it increases the challenges exponentially.

Can Mario buck the trend? At this point, I honestly don’t know. There are good signs - HS recruiting, overall program investment - and bad signs - game day management and performance. All we can see for certain is the aforementioned and have no clue as to what’s happening behind the closed doors of Hecht.

 

[BS85]

Way too early to be making these claims. Vast majority of the talented players on this roster were young freshman last year.

Manny’s players were all scrubs. Gotta give last years class which was marios first full class time to grow up, so 2025 at the earliest and then you can assess

This was a total rebuild. Miami’s situation was much worse than any of those other coaches due to the scrubs that was on the roster. Give marios first class time to grow and be patient

Incorrect

 

[FL Cane]

Pretty much.

Talk of "we started seriously competing financially in '21" is all the context you need. We were on life support - you only have to look at the results (including the NFL Draft) to see that.

These things take time. I'm not saying Cristobal is going to win a National Championship here, but I do think he returns us to respectability.

I think Mario will, at the least, get us to being a consistent 10 win team, which out did into contention with the conference and gives us a great shot at the playoff. I think every 2-3 years we’ll have an elite roster and make a run.

This is what I hope happens at the least. Could be better. Of course there’s the flip side of it being worse…

 

[GojiraCane]

Did he have QBs in place that he was developing though?

In 2021 he had a junior in Casey Thompson and a redshirt freshman in Hudson Card. From what I remember it was his defense that was the problem, it was horrendous.

In 2022 he brought in Quinn Ewers and Malik Murphy. The defense was substantially improved. Murphy never played due to injury. Ewers played most of the season but after injuring his shoulder against Alabama I’d argue that he wasn’t quite the same afterwards. Hudson Card played in games that Ewers missed.

 

[L A M P]

Where do we contribute for the buyout? Asking for @crossover22[]_[]

 

[PIPO]

While I agree with the statistical analysis, the majority of the RECENT hires have been specialists on one side of the ball.

Harbaugh - OC Playcaller
Kirby - DC
Saban - DC
Urban - OC and playcaller
Jimbo - OC
Chizik - DC

That's the thing with Mario I think he can do really well, but he's trying to win doing it a completely different way.
Never been a playcaller on either side of the ball, but he understand the box (i.e., run game and run defense) very well, and that's where supposedly his fingerprints are all over the team and game managing.
With that being said, he is an elite recruiter and a understand the box play really well. It would benefit him to always have up and comers be the OC side, so that he can utilize his knowledge of sound run game knowledge while allowing the OC to bring the passing game and proper flow of playcalling to the young gun. Its a balancing act. Meanwhile on the defensive side, let him do their thing with a focus on the run defense (which, in my opinion) is the right direction.

I think if Mario can hook up with a very sound and great OC (and successful in his own right, not a secondary playcaller like Gattis, who was at UM and Maryland), and let him do his thing, I think that's where he will fly, but it seems like he's having a tough time finding or acquiring them because they end up being HCs (i.e., Lashlee) and rightfully so.

When he meddles with the OC and MariBros his offense, is Mario not being “a play caller?”

Do you ever notice that when the Canes are on defense, his head set is off and he’s not interjecting or speaking into the mic but when on offense, mouthpiece is down and in constant communication?

He’s an OC if you ask me.

 

[DTP]

Without coming off as an excuse maker (I'm often critical of Mario and can mope with the best of them) his plan for this program is to make it Georgia. He wants to dominate on both lines while not necessarily having to rely on quarterbacks to win games. Whether that's the best philosophy is up for debate but it's clear what his strategy is. It's a strategy that can take time to implement as linemen usually aren't ready to play for a few years. I can get that. My gripe is that they don't do what they can in the meantime to win games with what they have. But that's not really my point. The talent on both lines will eventually be to the point where Miami can bully most teams like Georgia does. Nobody was confusing Kirby Smart with some coaching savant before he started winning titles. He was definitely a "corch" here. He built such a freakish roster that mediocre coaching couldn't hurt them. ****, he hired career loser Mike Bobo to run his offense this year and they were still great.

I know what some of you guys are saying though. "Kirby was 21-7 his first two years. Mario is 12-13". That's true and Mario could definitely have done things differently the last two seasons and had a much better record but let's not pretend Miami, in any way is near the level of program that Mark Richt era Georgia was. Being realistic, expecting more than 16 or 17 wins these first two years was a pipe dream. So yeah, has Mario botched too many games so far? Yeah. Is the team talent and overall health of the program much better than it's been in decades? Yeah. Worst case scenario Miami becomes the most talented 9-4 team in college football for a few years before eventually moving on. Not ideal but the program will be set up to win in the long term.

 

[TriStarCane]

I think the slow build, impatient argument is a different argument than the one this data set is making. The premise of this chart is set in the title: Mario will have to be a statistical outlier to win big at Miami. That’s it.

Every coach that’s won since 1998 has had the average 2 year record of 20-6 with at least 6 wins against top 25 teams that made up 34% of the the schedule. They inherited teams with an average of 14 wins. So that’s the baseline championship coach. The minimum wins a championship coach has had in their first two seasons is 15 and the minimum top 25 wins is 2. Now compare that to Mario’s first two. Thats all it’s saying. His coaching profile will be an outlier if he wins and based on the given profile of championship coaches. He had an above average inherited record and the 3rd easiest opponent record to play

This has nothing to do with timelines; it took Bowden 20 years to win his first title. It took Dabo 8. Yet both of them still fit the profile.

It says nothing about sustainability. That’s not the argument. The argument is that every coach that’s won a ring has had at least 15 wins, a bowl win, and 2 wins vs top 25 opponents in two years. Mario does not.

 

[Gsugradcanefan]

Without coming off as an excuse maker (I'm often critical of Mario and can mope with the best of them) his plan for this program is to make it Georgia. He wants to dominate on both lines while not necessarily having to rely on quarterbacks to win games. Whether that's the best philosophy is up for debate but it's clear what his strategy is. It's a strategy that can take time to implement as linemen usually aren't ready to play for a few years. I can get that. My gripe is that they don't do what they can in the meantime to win games with what they have. But that's not really my point. The talent on both lines will eventually be to the point where Miami can bully most teams like Georgia does. Nobody was confusing Kirby Smart with some coaching savant before he started winning titles. He was definitely a "corch" here. He built such a freakish roster that mediocre coaching couldn't hurt them. ****, he hired career loser Mike Bobo to run his offense this year and they were still great.

I know what some of you guys are saying though. "Kirby was 21-7 his first two years. Mario is 12-13". That's true and Mario could definitely have done things differently the last two seasons and had a much better record but let's not pretend Miami, in any way is near the level of program that Mark Richt era Georgia was. Being realistic, expecting more than 16 or 17 wins these first two years was a pipe dream. So yeah, has Mario botched too many games so far? Yeah. Is the team talent and overall health of the program much better than it's been in decades? Yeah. Worst case scenario Miami becomes the most talented 9-4 team in college football for a few years before eventually moving on. Not ideal but the program will be set up to win in the long term.

Kirby took his team to the NC game in year 2 and was a halftime qb switch from the other team (coached by his former boss and mentor) and deep pass in OT away from winning the title. Kirby could've very well had 3 titles already and would have likely gotten his 4th this year. He and Mario are not the same. Kirby in 2 seasons built what Mario might do in 4 or 5.

 

[RightSaidFred]

That's barely relevant. Championship coaches fund way to start winning games even with loser players. The slow build hasn't been a thing for 40 years. However you want to frame the slow build isn't done by championship teams. The data is there.

I guess I can phrase it this way: Can you name me 1 coach to win a championship in the last 25 years that had needed a slow build before he started to win games? Because everyone has done at least 1 9 win season in their first two years.

What makes you think Mario will be the first?

You're putting a lot more stock in the OP's chart than I am. Which is fine. But the OP's premise assumes a few things, namely: 1.) All programs are starting from the same place when the coaches are initially hired and 2.) All championship teams follow the same path to being built

I think both assumptions are wrong. To the first point, if I go down that list and look at the teams that immediately precede the coach taking over, I believe every one of them would beat the 2021 version of the Miami Hurricanes. I think Mario has the largest hill to climb.

Mike Shula's last Alabama team beats that Canes team by several touchdowns.
Mark Richt's Georgia teams beat that Canes team by 40
Les Miles LSU team beats that Canes team by 40
Bobby Bowden's FSU team beats that Canes team by 40
Nick Saban's LSU team beats that Canes team by 40
Butch Davis' Miami team beats that Canes team by 60
etc

I mean it's an interesting exercise just to go through that initial chart and google who was the head coach before the championship coach, and you'll find that more often than not, the championship coach didn't walk in to a very terrible situation at all. I mean, even the Florida example of Urban Meyer.... Ron Zook was not a world beater, but he did stack the roster. Zook's UF team would have crushed Manny's Miami teams on talent gap alone. And of course we all know our own example on that list (Butch/Coker) which is the most glaring one.

To the second point, as far as I can see by eyeballing it, Cristobal is the only offensive line coach on that list. Does that mean an offensiver line coach can't be a championship coach? I don't see any reason that would be the case, even though there isn't much precedent. Offensive line is notoriously slower to build.

 

[PIPO]

Without coming off as an excuse maker (I'm often critical of Mario and can mope with the best of them) his plan for this program is to make it Georgia. He wants to dominate on both lines while not necessarily having to rely on quarterbacks to win games. Whether that's the best philosophy is up for debate but it's clear what his strategy is. It's a strategy that can take time to implement as linemen usually aren't ready to play for a few years. I can get that. My gripe is that they don't do what they can in the meantime to win games with what they have. But that's not really my point. The talent on both lines will eventually be to the point where Miami can bully most teams like Georgia does. Nobody was confusing Kirby Smart with some coaching savant before he started winning titles. He was definitely a "corch" here. He built such a freakish roster that mediocre coaching couldn't hurt them. ****, he hired career loser Mike Bobo to run his offense this year and they were still great.

I know what some of you guys are saying though. "Kirby was 21-7 his first two years. Mario is 12-13". That's true and Mario could definitely have done things differently the last two seasons and had a much better record but let's not pretend Miami, in any way is near the level of program that Mark Richt era Georgia was. Being realistic, expecting more than 16 or 17 wins these first two years was a pipe dream. So yeah, has Mario botched too many games so far? Yeah. Is the team talent and overall health of the program much better than it's been in decades? Yeah. Worst case scenario Miami becomes the most talented 9-4 team in college football for a few years before eventually moving on. Not ideal but the program will be set up to win in the long term.

The minimum expectation was 15 wins. So, 7-5 and 8-4 and with better on field coaching, in reality it should’ve been 16 or 17 wins.

I don’t think 15-17/18 were unfair expectations for years 1 and 2. That should’ve easily been achieved while still implementing the long term strategy.

Let’s not forget - 3 wins could’ve swung in the opposite direction making his current record worse (UVA twice and Clemson).

 

[RightSaidFred]

I think the slow build, impatient argument is a different argument than the one this data set is making. The premise of this chart is set in the title: Mario will have to be a statistical outlier to win big at Miami. That’s it.

Every coach that’s won since 1998 has had the average 2 year record of 20-6 with at least 6 wins against top 25 teams that made up 34% of the the schedule. They inherited teams with an average of 14 wins. So that’s the baseline championship coach. The minimum wins a championship coach has had in their first two seasons is 15 and the minimum top 25 wins is 2. Now compare that to Mario’s first two. Thats all it’s saying. His coaching profile will be an outlier if he wins and based on the given profile of championship coaches. He had an above average inherited record and the 3rd easiest opponent record to play

This has nothing to do with timelines; it took Bowden 20 years to win his first title. It took Dabo 8. Yet both of them still fit the profile.

It says nothing about sustainability. That’s not the argument. The argument is that every coach that’s won a ring has had at least 15 wins, a bowl win, and 2 wins vs top 25 opponents in two years. Mario does not.

"Statistical outlier" is strong language to use when your sample size is 18 coaches.

 

[TriStarCane]

"Statistical outlier" is strong language to use when your sample size is 18 coaches.

Granted, the n is not large. But we are talking about 25 years of outcomes here across 2 championship structures. It’s held true for a quarter century and through all the changes of the post-poll era. It’s not a perfect sample size but I don’t think you can scoff at it either

 

[PIPO]

"Statistical outlier" is strong language to use when your sample size is 18 coaches.

He could easily add in the final 4 coaches for the same time frame & it’s likely to tell the same story. What is a good enough sample size for you?

This isn’t baseball where you can easily turn around a 1 for 18 to start of the season with another 400 at bats to go.