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Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review

hurricaneman said:
...umm, you just proved my point though.

If the 12 team playoff had existed this whole time all those Alabama teams would has less of chance to win the title and all the teams outside of the top 2/4, their chances go from literally 0.0% because they're not in to something greater than 0.0%. So a 12 team playoff the last 15 years would have very likely produced a wider variety of champions.
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Nobody knows what this new era will be like. That's what Mario has going for him. Maybe college football is going to be so different that the past statistics become meaningless.
 
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mcnaire2004 said:
I misread your list. Most wins at any school. Okay. I'll give you that.

What Mario did at Oregon is irrelevant to what he's done at Miami. Actually the best thing he's done at Miami is talk about his time at Oregon.

To answer specific questions you have to look at specific data. What did these coaches do at the schools where they won the championships? What does that look like.

Urban at Bowling Green or Utah was extremely good. But it only got him the next job. Mich line Oregon for Mario the next job. What did it look like when he got there?

Will Mario win a championship as a coach one day? Maybe but the statistics say it will have to come at another program.
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The difference is that before Mario came to Miami this administration was so cheap and the handcuffed the coaches before him. Blake James should have been taken on a one way fishing trip. Just look at the recruiting where there was never an OL and massive missing holes throughout the team. Lispy's last year of recruiting was a disaster and left Mario with almost nothing and zero depth. A few good players like Taylor, Williams, and a few more. Finally they should have a solid team but Mario needs to stop going full ****** game day.
 
HurricaneinLA said:
The difference is that before Mario came to Miami this administration was so cheap and the handcuffed the coaches before him. Blake James should have been taken on a one way fishing trip. Just look at the recruiting where there was never an OL and massive missing holes throughout the team. Lispy's last year of recruiting was a disaster and left Mario with almost nothing and zero depth. A few good players like Taylor, Williams, and a few more. Finally they should have a solid team but Mario needs to stop going full ****** game day.
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Much of what you're saying may be true. But not really relevant to the discussion here.
 
mcnaire2004 said:
Much of what you're saying may be true. But not really relevant to the discussion here.
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Not so much, looking at the list of coaches and those teams that most always had big money behind them before these new coaches came in. And a administration that backed the football team. Miami is probably dead last in money spent and a dedicated administration for their football team's success. When Mario arrived they had to come up with some real money for the first time. Look at all of those other teams and what they had spent years before. Texas, Georgia, LSU, OSU, Michigan, Clemson, Tennessee, USC, Oregon and some others on this list all have big football money and then there is cheap adminitation Miami. Got to have the full program with assistants and facilities.
 
HurricaneinLA said:
Not so much, looking at the list of coaches and those teams that most always had big money behind them before these new coaches came in. And a administration that backed the football team. Miami is probably dead last in money spent and a dedicated administration for their football team's success. When Mario arrived they had to come up with some real money for the first time. Look at all of those other teams and what they had spent years before. Texas, Georgia, LSU, OSU, Michigan, Clemson, Tennessee, USC, Oregon and some others on this list all have big football money and then there is cheap adminitation Miami. Got to have the full program with assistants and facilities.
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So Mario is having trouble winning games because we are only recently putting up big money in the football department?

I can make an argument against that but it wouldn't be relevant to the discussion.

What have championship coaches done? They all had adversity of one kind of another. Many winning with players that were previously losers with the team.
 
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Way too early to be making these claims. Vast majority of the talented players on this roster were young freshman last year.

Manny’s players were all scrubs. Gotta give last years class which was marios first full class time to grow up, so 2025 at the earliest and then you can assess

This was a total rebuild. Miami’s situation was much worse than any of those other coaches due to the scrubs that was on the roster. Give marios first class time to grow and be patient
 
RightSaidFred said:
Way too early to be making these claims. Vast majority of the talented players on this roster were young freshman last year.

Manny’s players were all scrubs. Gotta give last years class which was marios first full class time to grow up, so 2025 at the earliest and then you can assess

This was a total rebuild. Miami’s situation was much worse than any of those other coaches due to the scrubs that was on the roster. Give marios first class time to grow and be patient
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Yoyo82 said:
It's not just good context. It's relevant and important to know.

If Mario ends up winning a title, it'll be the single greatest coaching turnaround in the modern era.

Only one quality of a coach that I can think of that would even be capable of that kind of turnaround.

Mario has a LOT of good qualities.

He's a hard worker. He's passionate. He's sincere and likeable. He's connected. He is relentless. There are a lot of good qualities to define Mario.

But to overcome these odds, he falls short in the most important quality.

Innovative.
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How was Harbaugh innovative?

He just stacked the trenches and kicked the **** out of you.
 
FL Cane said:
It’s year three or bust for me. Plenty of HC’s (Sark, Franklin, Norvell, etc.) didn’t turn the corner till year 3. I also believe that our program was in a place few have ever been. About as close to rock bottom as possible. The rebuild was far greater than anyone could’ve realized. I don’t think any other coach in recent memory has inherited a program as bad as we’ve been and turned it around in two years. We’re talking averaging 7 wins a year over 15 years. We’ll have our answer next year. If it’s the same old I’ll agree that Mario won’t work out here. Till then, TBD.
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Pretty much.

Talk of "we started seriously competing financially in '21" is all the context you need. We were on life support - you only have to look at the results (including the NFL Draft) to see that.

These things take time. I'm not saying Cristobal is going to win a National Championship here, but I do think he returns us to respectability.
 
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hurricaneman said:
...umm, you just proved my point though.

If the 12 team playoff had existed this whole time all those Alabama teams would has less of chance to win the title and all the teams outside of the top 2/4, their chances go from literally 0.0% because they're not in to something greater than 0.0%. So a 12 team playoff the last 15 years would have very likely produced a wider variety of champions.
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No I didn’t. I’m talking about Miami. 12 team makes it harder on Miami and really anybody not named UGA, OSU, Mich, and before yesterday Bama. They’re so much better than everybody that one more game won’t matter.

Prove your point. Name somebody outside of UGA this year and Miami in 2000 that would’ve won the title had they gotten a chance.

Football is a low variance sport. The best team wins more when you add more games or more time on the clock. Right now and before the playoff they might not. As I mentioned UGA this year and Miami in 2000. When 1 or 2 reg season losses no longer matter, the best teams with capable coaches will always win.

Miami with Mario is incapable of that. The statistics laid out, prove it. He will have to completely change his coaching acumen and philosophy to even have a chance.
 
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JFC you guys have made this board worse than when NYSOM would post his **** here everyday.

MC first 2yrs at Oregon

WL 21-6
Vs top 25 5-3
% vs ranked teams 31%
T 12 finish 1
Post season 2-0
prior 2yrs 11-14

Seems these numbers fit quite well in these stupid posts. You think he forgot how to coach on the way to Miami? It's not the coach. It's the school that has sucked for 20yrs. It's going to take time.

Spare me the one hit wonders b/c some coach won 10 games right off the bat. Miami did that too. CMR had the nations longest winning streak and went right back to sucking the next year.

Now go back to this list and go back 10-15 years how many bowl games did they win. How many 10 win seasons did they have? Miami has won 1 bowl game against P5 since 2004! NONE of the last 25ys NC programs were anywhere near as far away from winning as the Miami Hurricanes Mario inherited. All of those programs still cared about winning. The Miami administration had long stopped caring about competing for a NC. Returning Miami to Miami will be one of the greatest coaching accomplishments in history.

As pointed out time and time again every NC has either had loaded roster or a generational QB. Mario is following exactly what MI did. He is going to be 15-0 and you mother****ers will still complain because McCarthy was 10-18 w/ 140yrs and 0 TDs because it wasn't exciting enough for you.
 
Memnon said:
Which begs the question, what exactly was he hired for?

If we just have to move the goalposts (which they already have been in his first 2 seasons), what is the reason to pay him like among the 15 Coaches in CFB while not getting top 15 results? Lowering expectations flies in the face of giving him a big contract & full financial support from the administrative & booster level.

So essentially, they hired him to go 7-5/8-4 at best every year & win offseason championships, not actual championships. What a comfy fckin gig.

Being a former Cane has benefits that extend well beyond the field!​

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Hence the revered mantra “It’s a Canes thing you wouldn’t understand” 🤣🤣 joke. Just FWY, I had too I couldn’t help myself.
 
RightSaidFred said:
Some of you are in denial how bad the roster got under Manny. These are players who lost to FIU and MTSU. This was and is a 100% rebuild from the ground up
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So the group that lost to FIU(I called for Mannys head before that) beat FSU so bad they fired their coach.

The group that got blown out by MTSU two years later was Mario Mario coached and also got blown out by 42 points to FSU.

Can you not read the chart? Championship level coaches start winning with the loser players. Are you going to be making this excuse forever?

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If Mario wants to win and win consistently, here's what needs to happen:

1. He needs to spearhead recruiting and install the best possible assistants he can get.

2. He needs to coach the position he can coach best and stop even thinking about the rest.

3. Set the culture of working hard and disciplined, punishing the ones who don't do it and elevating the ones who do.

So far, he's only doing 3 from what we can tell. 1 is a fat no given Addae is still around and 2 is also a fat no given how the offense went from exciting and successful to borderline unwatchable.

Mario wants to do it his way. Doing things your way only works when your way has been extremely successful prior (as in, a National Title).

And remember kids, Mario doesn't work out and you can forget this program forever.
 
hurricane-warnings said:
JFC you guys have made this board worse than when NYSOM would post his **** here everyday.

MC first 2yrs at Oregon

WL 21-6
Vs top 25 5-3
% vs ranked teams 31%
T 12 finish 1
Post season 2-0
prior 2yrs 11-14

Seems these numbers fit quite well in these stupid posts. You think he forgot how to coach on the way to Miami? It's not the coach. It's the school that has sucked for 20yrs. It's going to take time.

Spare me the one hit wonders b/c some coach won 10 games right off the bat. Miami did that too. CMR had the nations longest winning streak and went right back to sucking the next year.

Now go back to this list and go back 10-15 years how many bowl games did they win. How many 10 win seasons did they have? Miami has won 1 bowl game against P5 since 2004! NONE of the last 25ys NC programs were anywhere near as far away from winning as the Miami Hurricanes Mario inherited. All of those programs still cared about winning. The Miami administration had long stopped caring about competing for a NC. Returning Miami to Miami will be one of the greatest coaching accomplishments in history.

As pointed out time and time again every NC has either had loaded roster or a generational QB. Mario is following exactly what MI did. He is going to be 15-0 and you mother****ers will still complain because McCarthy was 10-18 w/ 140yrs and 0 TDs because it wasn't exciting enough for you.
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So you looked at the chart and it showed Jim Harbaugh at San Diego, or Nick Saban at Mich St, or Urban Meyer at Bowling Green, or Jimbo at TAMU?

If not then Mario at Oregon seems irrelevant.

You're missing the point all together. Perhaps on purpose. This alternate account you're working under is funny.
 
mcnaire2004 said:
So you looked at the chart and it showed Jim Harbaugh at San Diego, or Nick Saban at Mich St, or Urban Meyer at Bowling Green, or Jimbo at TAMU?

If not then Mario at Oregon seems irrelevant.

You're missing the point all together. Perhaps on purpose. This alternate account you're working under is funny.
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Not irrelevant at all. These posts imply Mario is a bad coach. If he had the same #s at Miami the first 2 years you wouldn't be saying he is a bad coach. His first 2 years at OR fit right inline with the coaches on the list. It's the same coach. What's different is the school and what was inherited.
 
hurricane-warnings said:
Not irrelevant at all. These posts imply Mario is a bad coach. If he had the same #s at Miami the first 2 years you wouldn't be saying he is a bad coach. His first 2 years at OR fit right inline with the coaches on the list. It's the same coach. What's different is the school and what was inherited.
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It's specific to the championship coach at the championship school. You are misunderstanding what is being presented.



The chart also shows what teams were inherited by the coaches when they took over.



Pete Carroll took over a 5 win USC team. Saban took over a 6 win and fresh off probation team. Meyer took over a 6 win team that Al Golden defeated. Stoops took over a 5 win team. Saban took over a 3 win LSU team. Mac Brown took over a 4 win Texas team. Jim Harbaugh took over a 5 win Michigan team. 11/18 other guys on that list took over teams that had the same or fewer wins than what Mario inherited.



Your points are debunked in the chart if you read it.



Yes Mario was right in line with the chart at Oregon. Great that proves he was on track there.

You have to go more than 30 years back to find a championship coach who couldn't muster a 9 win season in his first two years with his team.
 
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