Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review

[Dghustla]

I knew this thread wouldn’t disappointment

 

[Gocanes1990]

And now with a 12 team playoff it's going to be even harder (pause) to really catapult into being a title contender.

On it's face you would think more teams would make it easier & give us a better chance, but the exact opposite is likely to happen. More teams in the playoffs means it will be backlogged with borderline SEC teams & any time Notre Dame has a 9-3/10-2 season they'll basically be automatics.

Our best bet of making the playoffs was going on a run & winning the ACC. That will still be our pathway, but unless we just start miraculously ripping off multiple 10/11 win seasons, simply going 8-4, or even 9-3 won't be enough.

The bar has been lowered to where just finishing above .500 is considered a success, but the likelihood of Mario suddenly Jumpstarting this team into an annual 10+ win ACC & playoff contender is pretty much slim to none.

There's a much higher probability we have another 7 win season heading into year 3 of his tenure than winning 10+ & that is alarming if you're not a total brain dead slurper...

But of course, none of that matters because #2029IsTheTime!

I like the deathtouga hashtag better

 

[ThomasM]

No...lol, not being sensitive at all.
Don't know where in my post it shows that.

You misread my post. I tried to clarify. That's all.
No big deal.

I get it. I guess I just think it's sad comparing him to successful coaches, when he doesn't even stack up well against the Al Goldens, Randy Shannons, and Mario Diazs of our painful, recent past.

I love that he can recruit, and I know we need more talent. I just wish we had a coach that could win on Saturdays by putting his players into the best position possible to succeed. Do that and recruiting is even easier. Don't do that and you need to be a **** good BS artist to sell the program.

 

[mcnaire2004]

Detractors will always look for ways to justify, excuse, rationalize, evade truths, while gaslighting anyone who listen to them by inserting data, talking points that take away from the real issue at hand.

@TriStarCane, great analysis. Myself, along w/ @mcnaire2004 have drummed home this point. I first mentioned this awhile ago that building a championship team w/in a 5 yr window is not only archaic, but it’s rare throughout the history of CFB. I went all the way back to the 1900’s to show that the vast majority of championship coaches (& vast doesn’t really do justice to this stat) have their teams up and running no later than year 3, most by year 2, but no later than year 3.

I’ve seen several detractors used terms like nuanced or variables, to disregard the data presented. OK that’s fine, b/c we all “know” Miami can’t compete with big boy schools. We also know this ain’t the same Miami of the 80’s, where recruiting and innovations were kept lock-in-key w/o the internet age.

So @TriStarCane @mcnaire2004 let’s stop using other school’s records, or past coaches from said schools. Let’s just use 2007 Miami vs. Mario currently.

Let’s examine the variables of his predecessors, u know, to add CIS’s favorite word, “context”:

1. Mario is making
-Approx. 8x more than Randy Shannon/yr,
-4x more than Golden/yr
-2x more than Richt/yr
-2.5x more than Diaz/yr.

2. Mario is coaching in the NIL era, an era in which the U has become the poster child of this era

3. Mario’s AD is one who has a Nat’l Title as an Assoc. AD, & Two Nat’l Titles as an AD all from P5 programs.
-Shannon’s AD came from The MAC, where his teams went 19-18 during his tenure & he may or may not have been involved w/ Nevin Shapiro.

-Golden’s AD were Eichorst (who was here for a sip of coffee b4 bailing to Nebraska in which he was fired for woeful results), & Blake James (a glorified fund raiser who came from The Univ. of Maine, where he specialized in their hockey program)

-Richt’s AD was the aforementioned Blake James

-Manny’s AD was the aforementioned Blake James

4. Shannon took over Miami after the FIU brawl, & from 2004-2006, Miami went 25-12 (.675)

Golden took over Miami during the most modern day salacious scandal to hit CFB sports, & from 2007-2010 Miami went 28-22 (.560)

Richt took over Miami shortly after the cloud, and during the insubordination period of Golden, after the most egregious home lost in program history took place in 2015. From 2011-2015, Miami went 36-27 (.571)

Diaz took over Miami after Richt stabilized Miami, but had health & coaching issues in his last season. Nevertheless, he inherited a program from 2016-2018 that went 26-13 (.666)

Mario took over Miami after Diaz, & while Diaz was a chump of a coach who had no business here, didn’t have controversy surrounding him or the program, & from 2019-2021 went 21-15 (.583)

5. Only Richt & Cristobal on this “who’s who” of coaching list had previous P5 HC experience.

Now that those variables have been laid out, let’s compare the first two years of each regime:

Shannon: 12-13 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 1-4
Record vs. ACC: 6-10

Golden: 13-11 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 2-4
Record vs. ACC: 8-8

Richt: 19-7 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 3-3
Record vs. ACC: 12-5

Diaz: 14-10 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. ACC: 11-6

Cristobal: 12-13 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 1-5
Record vs. ACC: 6-10

Again, Mario is well behind where we should be based upon the program he’s inherited, the amount of $$ being invested for him, the competence of the support around him, the caliber of players he’s had vs. opponents faced, previous P5 coaching experience, etc etc etmfc.

So forget the 2-3 year rule of thumb that’s been discussed ad nauseam, just look at his predecessors, what they’ve been dealt, & compare. If anyone is remotely excusing what’s been taken place, u are being both irrational and delusional. Idgaf how close u r to the family, the program, w/e, this is completely unacceptable. However, we’re still w/in that 2-3 yr window, so all is not lost. With that being said, Golden, & Shannon both went 9-4 in yr 3, that’s not a bench mark of “improvement.” We need to see 10+ next season, end of discussion.

Yeah this says it all. I really don't understand why so many people keep chirping for Mario. At this point people are willingly claiming losses as wins and saying wrong don't matter.

If you point to Manny as an example for how bad Mario is all they see is "you are defending Manny" instead of "Mario is terrible." All the whole they were the ones who were defending Manny until he was fired.

We are entering a new era so there's always hope.

When did coaching stop being a basic criteria for judging a coach? No one is saying recruiting isn't important. It is! We are saying that can't be the only thing you can do as a HEAD COACH.

ALAS nothing left to do but scramble

 

[ben]

I knew this thread wouldn’t disappointment

I just jumped from page 1 to page 10, but…

 

[CaneSB]

Can we do an analysis on coach prior the NC title Coach? Maybe Mario is the guy who get us 80% of the way there and leaves a talented roster and organizational infrastructure. We haven’t had the bridge coach yet….

 

[IbzRlz]

Can we do an analysis on coach prior the NC title Coach? Maybe Mario is the guy who get us 80% of the way there and leaves a talented roster and organizational infrastructure. We haven’t had the bridge coach yet….

I'm running out of time for a national championship coach. This bridge coach has taken longer than it took to build the Golden Gate Bridge

 

[hurricaneman]

I’ve seen several detractors used terms like nuanced or variables, to disregard the data presented.

So what do you do with the data that Mario went 21-6 his first two years at Oregon? Does that not count? Is that not proof that he is capable and maybe there's other "nuance" to the discussion?

Nick Saban went 12-11 his first two years at Michigan State.

Jim Harbaugh went 9-15 his first two years at Stanford.

Most wins in their first two years as a head coach
Meyer 24
Coker 24
Chizik 22
Les Miles 22
Cristobal 21
Smart 21
Tressel 21
Stoops 20
Day 20
Harbaugh 20
Saban 19
Orgeron 19
Fisher 19
Brown 18
Carroll 17

I don't know if Mario is the guy but this bulls*** that he can't do it...he did it. And there's no nuance to any of this? Again, bulls***.

 

[TriStarCane]

So what do you do with the data that Mario went 21-6 his first two years at Oregon? Does that not count? Is that not proof that he is capable and maybe there's other "nuance" to the discussion?

Nick Saban went 12-11 his first two years at Michigan State.

Jim Harbaugh went 9-15 his first two years at Stanford.

Most wins in their first two years as a head coach
Meyer 24
Coker 24
Chizik 22
Les Miles 22
Cristobal 21
Smart 21
Tressel 21
Stoops 20
Day 20
Harbaugh 20
Saban 19
Orgeron 19
Fisher 19
Brown 18
Carroll 17

Those coaches had to leave to win, though. I’m not sure why it’s not working for Mario here but it’s not. I don’t think that’s debatable right now. What this question asks is will Mario be able to break a 25 year trend OR is this data completely irrelevant due to the new paradigm.

 

[mcnaire2004]

Can we do an analysis on coach prior the NC title Coach? Maybe Mario is the guy who get us 80% of the way there and leaves a talented roster and organizational infrastructure. We haven’t had the bridge coach yet….

No not at all. Look at the win total before the coach took over for that answer. Unfortunately that's not a thing. Maybe you can find an outlier or two but no.

 

[mcnaire2004]

So what do you do with the data that Mario went 21-6 his first two years at Oregon? Does that not count? Is that not proof that he is capable and maybe there's other "nuance" to the discussion?

Nick Saban went 12-11 his first two years at Michigan State.

Jim Harbaugh went 9-15 his first two years at Stanford.

Most wins in their first two years as a head coach
Meyer 24
Coker 24
Chizik 22
Les Miles 22
Cristobal 21
Smart 21
Tressel 21
Stoops 20
Day 20
Harbaugh 20
Saban 19
Orgeron 19
Fisher 19
Brown 18
Carroll 17

I don't know if Mario is the guy but this bulls*** that he can't do it...he did it. And there's no nuance to any of this? Again, bulls***.

If you look at my similar chart here you'll notice Saban and Urban are the twice for LSU, Bama, OSU, and UF. Fisher is only there once for FSU. Mac Brown is only there once for Texas.

How did they do at the school they won a ring at. Not how they did as a head coach at their other stops. What is the trend at our school?

And your list is wrong. It discounts what Mario did at FIU.

 

[hurricaneman]

If you look at my similar chart here you'll notice Saban and Urban are the twice for LSU, Bama, OSU, and UF. Fisher is only there once for FSU. Mac Brown is only there once for Texas.

How did they do at the school they won a ring at. Not how they did as a head coach at their other stops. What is the trend at our school?

And your list is wrong. It discounts what Mario did at FIU.

Except Saban left Michigan State by choice because he was paid more. Harbaugh left Stanford by choice because he was paid more. If Saban stays at Michigan State you don't think he could have won a championship? Harbaugh is 12-1 his final year at Stanford, there's no chance of him winning a championship?

And my list isn't wrong. It's the most wins any of those coaches ever had in their first two seasons, at any school. Point being, Saban never won more than 19 games wherever he went, Alabama included, while Mario won 21 at Oregon. In terms of apex of early success, Mario's success exceeds Nick Saban. He's done more, earlier, than Saban ever has.

 

[mcnaire2004]

Except Saban left Michigan State by choice because he was paid more. Harbaugh left Stanford by choice because he was paid more. If Saban stays at Michigan State you don't think he could have won a championship? Harbaugh is 12-1 his final year at Stanford, there's no chance of him winning a championship?

And my list isn't wrong. It's the most wins any of those coaches ever had in their first two seasons, at any school. Point being, Saban never won more than 19 games wherever he went, Alabama included, while Mario won 21 at Oregon.

I misread your list. Most wins at any school. Okay. I'll give you that.

What Mario did at Oregon is irrelevant to what he's done at Miami. Actually the best thing he's done at Miami is talk about his time at Oregon.

To answer specific questions you have to look at specific data. What did these coaches do at the schools where they won the championships? What does that look like.

Urban at Bowling Green or Utah was extremely good. But it only got him the next job. Mich line Oregon for Mario the next job. What did it look like when he got there?

Will Mario win a championship as a coach one day? Maybe but the statistics say it will have to come at another program.

 

[hurricaneman]

I misread your list. Most wins at any school. Okay. I'll give you that.

What Mario did at Oregon is irrelevant to what he's done at Miami. Actually the best thing he's done at Miami is talk about his time at Oregon.

To answer specific questions you have to look at specific data. What did these coaches do at the schools where they won the championships? What does that look like.

Urban at Bowling Green or Utah was extremely good. But it only got him the next job. Mich line Oregon for Mario the next job. What did it look like when he got there?

Will Mario win a championship as a coach one day? Maybe but the statistics say it will have to come at another program.

Do you think Saban could have won a NC at Michigan State if he had stayed?

 

[mcnaire2004]

Do you think Saban could have won a NC at Michigan State if he had stayed?

I don't know but statistically probably not. Though Saban is a generational coach of such magnitude that I can't count him out.

He suffered multiple blowout losses every year there. Even so he clearly built them up into a force within the conference. What he learned there helped shape him into the guy that took over LSU.

 

[NC_Canes_11]

The playoff is 12 teams going forward so all this data and commentary is completely irrelevant.

The path gets harder with a 12 team playoff. You have to win 3-4 games instead of 2. Getting away with losing 2 games or your conf title game means nothing when you draw another 2-3 top 12 teams as a result. Can you imagine finally being a top 4 team and having to win 3 instead of 2?

Just bc you have a better chance to get in, doesn’t mean it’s easier. Just this year UGA, Zona (arguably the hottest team outside of Mich in the country), Ole Miss, Mizzou, OSU, Oregon, and probably LSU or PSU would’ve been in. Not counting FSU bc they’d have gotten waxed.

Do you really think the final four would’ve been harder to win than that top 12?

 

[hurricaneman]

I don't know but statistically probably not. Though Saban is a generational coach of such a magnitude that I can't count him out.

He suffered multiple blowout losses every year there. Even so he clearly built them up into a force within the conference. What he learned there helped shape him into the guy that took over LSU.

One third of the data points in the statistical dataset comes from him though. He's played in 9 championship games over there past decade and a half. So the argument is Nick Saban would not win a championship at Michigan State because Nick Saban did not win a national championship at Michigan State.

Since 2009 you have like 4 coaches that have taken up 2/3 of the spots in the NC games. And of the other ones, another significant chunk inherited double digit win teams. This data that everyone likes to point to and say there's no room for nuance is not as telling as people think.

 

[hurricaneman]

The path gets harder with a 12 team playoff. You have to win 3-4 games instead of 2. Getting away with losing 2 games or your conf title game means nothing when you draw another 2-3 top 12 teams as a result. Can you imagine finally being a top 4 team and having to win 3 instead of 2?

Just bc you have a better chance to get in, doesn’t mean it’s easier. Just this year UGA, Zona (arguably the hottest team outside of Mich in the country), Ole Miss, Mizzou, OSU, Oregon, and probably LSU or PSU would’ve been in. Not counting FSU bc they’d have gotten waxed.

Do you really think the final four would’ve been harder to win than that top 12?

...umm, you just proved my point though.

If the 12 team playoff had existed this whole time all those Alabama teams would has less of chance to win the title and all the teams outside of the top 2/4, their chances go from literally 0.0% because they're not in to something greater than 0.0%. So a 12 team playoff the last 15 years would have very likely produced a wider variety of champions.

 

[IbzRlz]

So what do you do with the data that Mario went 21-6 his first two years at Oregon? Does that not count? Is that not proof that he is capable and maybe there's other "nuance" to the discussion?

Nick Saban went 12-11 his first two years at Michigan State.

Jim Harbaugh went 9-15 his first two years at Stanford.

Most wins in their first two years as a head coach
Meyer 24
Coker 24
Chizik 22
Les Miles 22
Cristobal 21
Smart 21
Tressel 21
Stoops 20
Day 20
Harbaugh 20
Saban 19
Orgeron 19
Fisher 19
Brown 18
Carroll 17

I don't know if Mario is the guy but this bulls*** that he can't do it...he did it. And there's no nuance to any of this? Again, bulls***.

You're picking and choosing what to use. Saban's first 2 years at MSU he had 12 wins, and his first 2 years as a HEAD COACH he had 15 wins, 9 @ Toledo and 6 @ MSU. You can't say first 2 years as head coach and then use whatever 2 years at a school you want to use.

 

[mcnaire2004]

One third of the data points in the statistical dataset comes from him though. He's played in 9 championship games over there past decade and a half. So the argument is Nick Saban would not win a championship at Michigan State because Nick Saban did not win a national championship at Michigan State.

Since 2009 you have like 4 coaches that have taken up 2/3 of the spots in the NC games. And of the other ones, another significant chunk inherited double digit win teams. This data that everyone likes to point to and say there's no room for nuance is not as telling as people think.

Yes, this is a data-driven discussion not a hypothetical driven discussion. So would Nick Saban have won a national championship at Michigan State? Irrelevant.

The OPs chart goes back 25 years. It's 100% My chart goes back 123 years but the last 40 (since 1983) and it's **** near 90% at 40 years.


There's always nuance. But whatever the circumstances have been, championship coaches with the programs they win the championship with win a certain amount of games in the first few years. Most importantly they don't need several recruiting classes before they start winning games because they are good coaches.