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Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review

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WeBallinBoyz said:
This is always so funny to me.

What’s stopping Miami from hiring a Tyson Helton type of HC that would cost Pennies and churn out the same or better results with a more marketable product?

Mario not succeeding does not mean the end of the world. I’ve come to realize that now. Good coaches are good coaches, they will succeed if given the opportunity to do. Anytime, anywhere.

Miami is not some magical place where only our own can succeed. As for recruiting, winning takes care of that more often than people realize. A lot of this fanbase continues to live in the 80’s and 90’s and brainwashes others into thinking in such a narrow-minded view, as if there is no other alternative than having a Miami guy restore greatness to this one proud program.

It makes what Mario is doing on the trail that much more impressive, and yet it’s all for naught if they’re not properly developed / it directly leads to more wins.
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Miami HC hiring history says otherwise. Unless the powers that be have completely changed their mindset about who they’ll hire, it’ll be SSDD.
 
TriStarCane said:
🚨 Long post with numbers and stuff. Pop your adderall and lock in 🚨

This post is the result of something I looked into after an intriguing post from @JayCane20 in the Romberg thread. It’s been discussed before but just how soon would you know if you have a championship level coach?



This is 100% on the nose. Let’s take a 25 year stroll through recent coaching history. We are going to address one of the biggest myths in football fandom: “it takes time to build a championship.” This is, bluntly, horse **** and has been for almost my whole life. While timeline of an achieved championship varies, the data points show that you will know if you have a strong coach within 2 years in modern college football. Let’s look at the table below to see how every championship level coach (that’s still the standard, right?) compares through their first two full seasons

For this jaunt through history, i went back to every coach that has won a title in the post poll champ era (BCS + CFP). I used a couple of key indicators of success that are uncontroversial: overall record, record vs ranked teams, % of games vs ranked opponents, top 12 finishes (since that would be a playoff berth now), and post season record. This spans different championship structures and multiple rule changes. The results all show the same thing: championship coaches do the unimaginable…they win. And they do it pretty much right away. After looking at this you will come to the horrific conclusion that is plain to see: Mario will need to be a statistical outlier in order to win big here.

CoachOverall Recordvs Top 25% games vs rankedTop 12 FinishPost Season RecordSchool Prior Record - 2 yr
Cristobol12-131-524%00-115-8
Saban (AL)19-87-544%11-116-9
Smart21-76-539%11-119-6
Dabo15-122-629%01-017-9
Orgeron19-77-442%11-117-8*
Urban (OSU)24-25-227%21-018-8*
Harbaugh20-64-430%21-112-13
Jimbo19-82-422%02-016-10*
Chizik*22-57-337%12-014-11
Urban (UF)*22-47-341%22-015-9
Miles22-48-446%22-022-4
Brown18-84-742%01-112-12
Carroll17-88-552%11-111-13
Saban (LSU)18-76-440%12-07-15
Tressel*21-57-338%11-114-10
Coker*24-19-140%21-120-5
Stoops20-57-132%11-19-14
Bowden15-81-213%01-04-18
Fulmer17-6-15-5-145%11-118-5-2

Take aways

- There is not a single metric that has Mario on the path to a championship based on the historical record of coaches that have achieve that since 1998

-He would be the only coach in the last 25 years to win a national title with a losing record in his first two seasons. The second lowest winning % (Dabo at 55%) is still 7 points higher than Mario. The average total victories across a championship coach’s first 2 years is 19.6. Mario clocks in at a robust 12…over 60% off the pace in total wins

- Mario’s record vs Top 25 teams would be the lowest of any coach that won a national championship since 1998. The only other coach with as few wins vs ranked teams is Bowden, who coached before all the schools were integrated and we were just getting done fighting in Nam

- …and what’s worse, Mario’s schedule difficulty is bottom 3. He has lost more games against a softer schedule than only two coaches (both FSU coaches btw…). Mario doesn’t win against ranked teams or ****** teams. Every other coach has at least 2 wins vs top 25 teams and 12 coaches had *gasp* winning records against top 25 teams!

- 14 out of 18 championship coaches had a Top 12, or playoff level, finish in their first 2 seasons. 5 of them would have gone back to back in their first two years. The only modern coaches who didn’t ended up landing prolific QBs to win: Dabo with Watson, Jimbo with Winston, Mack with VY. Bowden is again the the other one and he needed 17 years to win a title. That’s just not reality anymore. Or Maybe we are on a 20 year plan unless you think transfers from Albany will win us a ship

- Something I found interesting was that every championship coach had won at least one bowl or playoff game in their first 2 years…we have a problem with that as well. Bowl games are totally different now, but there is some value in prepping kids to play in big games, right?

- Some guys really didn’t get the memo about having to build. Four coaches won national titles in their first 2 seasons. Weirdos. 3 of the 4 inherited teams with worse 2 year prior records than Mario did with Miami. The only guys that inherited a wagon were Coker and Miles. None of them had the portal, either.

But TriStar, you ignorant ****. Miami was in way worse shape than all those other programs! About that. Our two season record preceding our new coach was on par with the other programs for the most part. The average two year win total of these teams was 14.5. Ours was 15. In fact, 6 coaches inherited losing records and 4 were hired after major scandals. I don’t think that narrative holds. We had been off penalties for almost 10 years at time of hire. We also have never had more financial support than now. Culture is subjective and I doubt our culture was worse than many of these other schools when the change was made.

But he can recruit! Yeah - so could all these guys. Saban, Smart, Urban are some of the best to ever do it. No one on this list was talent starved. He recruits better than most, but it has not been accompanied with wins like his peers

Okay, so now that you’re depressed, here are possibilities for winning that would be basically small miracles in my assessment

  1. Mario changes his entire game day coach philosophy, hires top shelf assistance and gives them full autonomy while he works as a CEO and focuses on remaining an elite talent acquisition program …lol
  2. Mario lands a generational QB like Dabo or Jimbo while landing top 5 classes …I don’t love our chances with the first part.
  3. Deus ex machina that changes the entire landscape of the sport and old data points become irrelevant. This actually has a higher likelihood of occurring than the other two points, especially with the portal, NIL, Congress, and coaches retiring and leaving.

My take is that we do not have a championship coach and might be further away from it than when Richt retired. Here is hoping this thread gets violently thrown into my face and it’s not prophetic because it doesn’t look awesome. This is my mopery rosebud. God speed
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I appreciate this take.
Just glancing at it, the one thing that stands out (just looking at the coaches and teams) as a possible contrasting variable is this:

I don’t know the answer, this is a genuine question.

Taking out the cause/effect of development…

How many (avg. or % or what have you) of the players from those rosters were day 1 or day 2 daft picks/ and or went on to play in NFL vs our roster in the past 2 years?
 
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TriStarCane said:
🚨 Long post with numbers and stuff. Pop your adderall and lock in 🚨

This post is the result of something I looked into after an intriguing post from @JayCane20 in the Romberg thread. It’s been discussed before but just how soon would you know if you have a championship level coach?



This is 100% on the nose. Let’s take a 25 year stroll through recent coaching history. We are going to address one of the biggest myths in football fandom: “it takes time to build a championship.” This is, bluntly, horse **** and has been for almost my whole life. While timeline of an achieved championship varies, the data points show that you will know if you have a strong coach within 2 years in modern college football. Let’s look at the table below to see how every championship level coach (that’s still the standard, right?) compares through their first two full seasons

For this jaunt through history, i went back to every coach that has won a title in the post poll champ era (BCS + CFP). I used a couple of key indicators of success that are uncontroversial: overall record, record vs ranked teams, % of games vs ranked opponents, top 12 finishes (since that would be a playoff berth now), and post season record. This spans different championship structures and multiple rule changes. The results all show the same thing: championship coaches do the unimaginable…they win. And they do it pretty much right away. After looking at this you will come to the horrific conclusion that is plain to see: Mario will need to be a statistical outlier in order to win big here.

CoachOverall Recordvs Top 25% games vs rankedTop 12 FinishPost Season RecordSchool Prior Record - 2 yr
Cristobol12-131-524%00-115-8
Saban (AL)19-87-544%11-116-9
Smart21-76-539%11-119-6
Dabo15-122-629%01-017-9
Orgeron19-77-442%11-117-8*
Urban (OSU)24-25-227%21-018-8*
Harbaugh20-64-430%21-112-13
Jimbo19-82-422%02-016-10*
Chizik*22-57-337%12-014-11
Urban (UF)*22-47-341%22-015-9
Miles22-48-446%22-022-4
Brown18-84-742%01-112-12
Carroll17-88-552%11-111-13
Saban (LSU)18-76-440%12-07-15
Tressel*21-57-338%11-114-10
Coker*24-19-140%21-120-5
Stoops20-57-132%11-19-14
Bowden15-81-213%01-04-18
Fulmer17-6-15-5-145%11-118-5-2

Take aways

- There is not a single metric that has Mario on the path to a championship based on the historical record of coaches that have achieve that since 1998

-He would be the only coach in the last 25 years to win a national title with a losing record in his first two seasons. The second lowest winning % (Dabo at 55%) is still 7 points higher than Mario. The average total victories across a championship coach’s first 2 years is 19.6. Mario clocks in at a robust 12…over 60% off the pace in total wins

- Mario’s record vs Top 25 teams would be the lowest of any coach that won a national championship since 1998. The only other coach with as few wins vs ranked teams is Bowden, who coached before all the schools were integrated and we were just getting done fighting in Nam

- …and what’s worse, Mario’s schedule difficulty is bottom 3. He has lost more games against a softer schedule than only two coaches (both FSU coaches btw…). Mario doesn’t win against ranked teams or ****** teams. Every other coach has at least 2 wins vs top 25 teams and 12 coaches had *gasp* winning records against top 25 teams!

- 14 out of 18 championship coaches had a Top 12, or playoff level, finish in their first 2 seasons. 5 of them would have gone back to back in their first two years. The only modern coaches who didn’t ended up landing prolific QBs to win: Dabo with Watson, Jimbo with Winston, Mack with VY. Bowden is again the the other one and he needed 17 years to win a title. That’s just not reality anymore. Or Maybe we are on a 20 year plan unless you think transfers from Albany will win us a ship

- Something I found interesting was that every championship coach had won at least one bowl or playoff game in their first 2 years…we have a problem with that as well. Bowl games are totally different now, but there is some value in prepping kids to play in big games, right?

- Some guys really didn’t get the memo about having to build. Four coaches won national titles in their first 2 seasons. Weirdos. 3 of the 4 inherited teams with worse 2 year prior records than Mario did with Miami. The only guys that inherited a wagon were Coker and Miles. None of them had the portal, either.

But TriStar, you ignorant ****. Miami was in way worse shape than all those other programs! About that. Our two season record preceding our new coach was on par with the other programs for the most part. The average two year win total of these teams was 14.5. Ours was 15. In fact, 6 coaches inherited losing records and 4 were hired after major scandals. I don’t think that narrative holds. We had been off penalties for almost 10 years at time of hire. We also have never had more financial support than now. Culture is subjective and I doubt our culture was worse than many of these other schools when the change was made.

But he can recruit! Yeah - so could all these guys. Saban, Smart, Urban are some of the best to ever do it. No one on this list was talent starved. He recruits better than most, but it has not been accompanied with wins like his peers

Okay, so now that you’re depressed, here are possibilities for winning that would be basically small miracles in my assessment

  1. Mario changes his entire game day coach philosophy, hires top shelf assistance and gives them full autonomy while he works as a CEO and focuses on remaining an elite talent acquisition program …lol
  2. Mario lands a generational QB like Dabo or Jimbo while landing top 5 classes …I don’t love our chances with the first part.
  3. Deus ex machina that changes the entire landscape of the sport and old data points become irrelevant. This actually has a higher likelihood of occurring than the other two points, especially with the portal, NIL, Congress, and coaches retiring and leaving.

My take is that we do not have a championship coach and might be further away from it than when Richt retired. Here is hoping this thread gets violently thrown into my face and it’s not prophetic because it doesn’t look awesome. This is my mopery rosebud. God speed
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But, but, but Mario won 2 PAC12 titles, a Rose Bowl, and gasp, beat Ohio St on the road! Awesome post and concur 100%
 
TriStarCane said:
I was one of those people tbh. For whatever reason he has not duplicated that here.
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It’s year three or bust for me. Plenty of HC’s (Sark, Franklin, Norvell, etc.) didn’t turn the corner till year 3. I also believe that our program was in a place few have ever been. About as close to rock bottom as possible. The rebuild was far greater than anyone could’ve realized. I don’t think any other coach in recent memory has inherited a program as bad as we’ve been and turned it around in two years. We’re talking averaging 7 wins a year over 15 years. We’ll have our answer next year. If it’s the same old I’ll agree that Mario won’t work out here. Till then, TBD.
 
SinisterCane said:
Sadly, the only good thing about that eight year contract is that Mario can’t use used the excuse “gotta to give Mario more time to get my guys” if the canes are still doing bad round year 5,6 and 7. This **** result and not getting a contract extension.
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Here's what's funny...

Is that's the exact excuse that will be used lol
 
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TriStarCane said:
I was one of those people tbh. For whatever reason he has not duplicated that here.
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Part of the concern when he was hired is that this is a totally different situation with totally different dynamics than what he stepped into at Oregon.

There isn't a "blueprint" for what is needed here in an ever-changing sport - though it seems we're often told about "blueprints," past successes, and [what I consider irrelevant] models/references.

Mario's best chance is take the blueprint he believes in, use scissors to cut out the sensical fundamental parts, and some scotch tape to patch in something new for where college football has gone or is going.

We shall see.
 
TriStarCane said:
I think this is at the heart of the point of the deep dive. If you are expecting Mario to bring #6 to Coral Gables, it seems misguided barring a miraculous change or intervention. But if you come to grips with what our ceiling is, then it might be achievable
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Which begs the question, what exactly was he hired for?

If we just have to move the goalposts (which they already have been in his first 2 seasons), what is the reason to pay him like among the 15 Coaches in CFB while not getting top 15 results? Lowering expectations flies in the face of giving him a big contract & full financial support from the administrative & booster level.

So essentially, they hired him to go 7-5/8-4 at best every year & win offseason championships, not actual championships. What a comfy fckin gig.

Being a former Cane has benefits that extend well beyond the field!
 
Memnon said:
Which begs the question, what exactly was he hired for?

If we just have to move the goalposts (which they already have been in his first 2 seasons), what is the reason to pay him like among the 15 Coaches in CFB while not getting top 15 results? Lowering expectations flies in the face of giving him a big contract & full financial support from the administrative & booster level.

So essentially, they hired him to go 7-5/8-4 at best every year & win offseason championships, not actual championships. What a comfy fckin gig.

Being a former Cane has benefits that extend well beyond the field!
Click to expand...
I think that’s what my post is trying to recast. I think the admin did hire him to win championships, but he is not on that trajectory. He’s also being paid as a championship coach with the resources to win…but he’s not. You and I know **** well he’s getting an extension the moment he wins 10. Maybe 9. He will be our Ferentz. No one will touch him and if he is fired, the money will dry up faster than a chick hitting menopause. It’s nihilistic but it’s the most probably outcome based on the timeline. 20% through his contract and we have a sub .500 coach with no plans of changing. Oye
 
Good post. Sucks to read but it is what it is.

Maybe he can at least pull a Norvell and be in the championship hunt by year 4. He's here for that long anyways... So we can only hope.
 
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Great post. It's always been year 2 when great coaches make their jump. Although we did just see Norvell make his jump in year 3 but I get you are talking championship caliber.

My take is at best we are looking at Mario making us a 9-10 win a year type of program. I just don't think he has the game day coaching and appeal to pull the elite QB needed for anything more than that.
 
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561Cane said:
If,,,it’s when…
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Although I know there's a good chance we lose 🤢, I'm not conceding that until it's over.

Mario HAS to know how bad he'll look if he loses to the guy he replaced who's taken over a much lesser program when he's on year 1 and Mario's on year 3, at HOME. Will be another nail in the coffin.
 
Yoyo82 said:
Although I know there's a good chance we lose 🤢, I'm not conceding that until it's over.

Mario HAS to know how bad he'll look if he loses to the guy he replaced who's taken over a much lesser program when he's on year 1 and Mario's on year 3, at HOME. Will be another nail in the coffin.
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Manny knew how bad it would be to lose to Butch…
 
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