CaneInTheBrain
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I would take any cow over Diaz. If it's sacred, even better.
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Manny Diaz vs Geoff Collins Miss State comparison(long)
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I would take any cow over Diaz. If it's sacred, even better.
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brcane1
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Yes there are a couple good stats for getting an opponent off the field.
There are two components of the FEI defensive efficiency advanced stat that calculates this:
DFD is the percent of opponent drives that result in 1 or more first downs (the opposite of what you are looking for) & DAY is the available yards percentage, or amount of the available field that opponent drive eats through.
Here are his last 5 season ranks in each of those:
YEAR DFD DAY
2010 38 51
2011 16 11
2012 49 69
2014 13 23
2015 63 57
AVERAGE 36 42
Edit: Went ahead and compiled two more that help answer your question, and brace yourself because its the ugliest stat I've seen thus far. Combined the stats above and these show that he is very boom or bust. His best defense do a great job getting off the field on aggregate, but even then the bad drives are.... tough to stomach.
DMe: Methodical Drive Rate, the percentage of opponent drives that last at least 10 plays.
DVa: Value Drive Rate, the percentage of opponent drives that begin at least 50 yards from the end zone and reach the team's 30-yard line.
Here are Diaz's ranks:
YEAR DME DVA
2010 106 56
2011 32 15
2012 107 81
2014 100 33
2015 113 56
AVERAGE 92 48
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dookie blaylock
doodoo brown
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you mean when he started his career doing ***** work for chuck amato and mickey andrews? did manny sr also get him the ga spot and subsequent promotions at nc state, then the dc job at middle tennessee? did his dad work politics with dan mullen, who has zero connection to miami and owes it nothing, for the mississippi state job and then again with mack brown at texas?
no, you stupid ****. manny diaz the mayor of miami wasn't even a state-level elected official, yet your dumbass thinks that he has a senator's influence over people who don't give two ***** about south florida.
dookie blaylock
doodoo brown
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d'onofrio is unemployed. want him back?
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Solid work. For comparison sake I'll look up Collins when I get off work so we can get a chance to see how they fared differently.
Either way he definitely needs to improve,
If not then richt has shown he has no problem firing people
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CaneInTheBrain
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Hmm. Good points. I do believe you're right, actually.
I feel like I'm missing something. How exactly does a team have >100% of its drives last 10 plays or more?
Lutzboy247
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His redzone defense and points allowed per game are actually pretty good. And that's all that really matters I suppose.
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Just amazes me how people can nitpick this hire after I spent all last year and even before then hearing about how our defense needed to be super aggressive. If I hear the word "southern savage" one more **** time..thats all posters said, bring the savages! Unleash the savages! let them be savages! this is the south where only southern savages live! Savage Savage Savage!!
Well, we now have the King of Savageland as our DC and people are complaining. Why dont we see what this guy can do before we start saying he isnt the answer.
Great background work OP. If our defense plays as good as UFs did this year we will win 10 games with our eyes closed.
Well, we now have the King of Savageland as our DC and people are complaining. Why dont we see what this guy can do before we start saying he isnt the answer.
Great background work OP. If our defense plays as good as UFs did this year we will win 10 games with our eyes closed.
Yep, thanks. I knew I was missing something.
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Those are the types of stats I was concerned about a couple days ago when I brought up the counter-argument to MSU's bad TOP. I mentioned that bad TOP isn't always the offense's fault. Sometimes, the defense doesn't do a good job of getting off the field. Of course, I was labeled a hater, but it was something that needed to be looked into.
Diaz is a weird DC. In one breath, we hear he's a blitzing pressuring maniac. Then, we see stats like these that are kind of the opposite of what you'd expect to see from a high-pressure D. Usually, with blitzing pressure defenses it's boom or bust. You give up big plays, and you make quick stops because you put the offense in 2nd and 3rd and longs.
With Diaz, his stats seem to indicate more of a bend don't break approach because he's done a good job of not giving up big plays. But his defense stays on the field a lot and gives up big yardage on long extended drives.
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I have not really looked at much tape or anything, so I could be way off, but just judging from some stats that I have seen of his, it looks like he does indeed bring the heat a good amount, but combines it with some deep zones thus instead of playing underneath or in between the QB and WR, his DB's sit back somewhat and let the underneath hang open which results in either a TFL or an underneath pass that can get swallowed up for a short gain or get some YAC to keep drives chugging along.
I may be completely wrong, but that's just my guess. Like I said, I haven't watched much of him so I couldn't really tell you what his true scheme is. If that is the case it could always be due to him not having the better talent most years besides when he was at Texas, but even then they were a dumpster fire. He may feel more confident here with better talent in the secondary consistently to make guys play more man and force the offense's hand.
Who knows. I'd love for someone to chime in who actually has watched him a good amount(not just a game or two) and can tell us what he does.
Hardcore Cane
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Diaz will be a Monster dc at Miami and that's why Richt hired him. We are going to see some exciting defense and that's something we haven't had in awhile.
Meant to up vote not down vote sorry
CaneInTheBrain
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He is probably aggressive w the front 7 and conservative w the safeties. Give up the 6, 7, 8 yard stuff, dont get beat deep, and go for a lot of TFL
I imagine there's a lot of run blitzing with that philosophy as well
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If I had to guess, I would say you're pretty much spot on. Just looking at those numbers it seems to suggest that Diaz is aggressive on early downs and probably plays coverage on late downs. As an example, his defense will likely create a 2nd and long situation and keep everything in front on both 2nd and 3rd downs.
It would be interesting to know just how much man coverage he plays on third down. Since Lu is breaking down tape perhaps he could provide some valuable insight here. I also would be interested in knowing the avg distance on 3rd downs.
Awsi Dooger
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Very good isolation. In checking cfbstats.com for a half hour or so after reading your astute post, it's glaring that Mississippi State's defense had a bizarre low distribution in 2015 in terms of ratio of 20+ yard passes allowed compared to midrange throws only slightly shorter. Consequently I would throw out that touted stat of not allowing many 20 yard plays.
This happens sometimes. I've studied football stats carefully since spring 1984 and particularly after buying a Mac Quadra 610 in the early '90s and setting up Excel workbooks. Often you'll find a relatively short sample that looks significant at first glance until you adjust the parameters slightly and discover that there was a ridiculous and probably random concentration just outside your original formula.
That's certainly the case here. Mississippi State allowed 74 completions of 15+ yards in 2015. That's actually on the high end. But somehow it equated to only 17 completions of 25+ yards. That's semi incredible, a ratio of well over 4/1. Combined with that other category of not allowing 20+ yard plays it means that the opponents had a strange monopoly of 15-19 yard completions. I suppose we could check Diaz' prior years to see if that pattern occurs frequently, and if so try to decipher some reason for it. I prefer to pass. It looks like merely a one-year wonder. Again, that's not out of line. Among more than 115 teams there are amazing oddities in one category after another. That's why the odds are 20/1 or 50/1, etc. and not infinity.
I looked at the entire ACC in that relationship of 15+ yard completions surrendered compared to 25+. No team had a ratio comparable to Mississippi State, at 4/1 and beyond. The typical team is between 2/1 and 3/1. The Canes were in the standard range, allowing 59 at 15+ and 23 that reached 25+. North Carolina State was at the other extreme as Mississippi State. They were the only team I looked at that allowed more than half of the 15+ completions to extend beyond 25 yards. They were 54-30. North Carolina was the best in the ACC at not allowing the midrange throws to reach 25 yards. I forget the exact figure but it was something like 64 at 15+ and 19 at 25+.
I checked a handful of teams outside the ACC. Again, they were generally falling between 2/1 and 3/1.
The other strange statistical finding from Mississippi State pass defense 2015 was that they were abysmal for whatever reason in defending passes when the opponent was at its own 1 yard line to 20 yard line. They allowed 30 completions in 39 attempts for roughly 9 yards per attempt and an astronomical passer rating. Again, that might not be anything more than a one year wonder.
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CanesAreAble
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As others have said, the stat breakdown for MSU is kinda strange because they were decent in third down defense (about 35%).
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Please don't ignore Geoff boom in florida can be attributed with a few things...
1. Taking over Will Muschamp/ DJ Durkin's defense, both who are really great defensive minds.
2. The D already had an established top CB and a bunch of big boys on the line (somewhere it was said MISS ST had only 1 5* recruit defensively)
3. I know alot like to hate Randy Shannon, but you're fooling yourself if you think he doesn't play a part in how much better Collins defense at UF is, in comparison to how his defense at Miss St was.
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Edit:
For comparison purposes
1. Diaz has already turned about 4 teams around defensively, don't know how many went from 3-4 base to his 4-3 aggressive (polar opposites) but he isn't new to changing a defense around.
2. Miami has MUCH more talent across the board than Miss ST...even with Burns leaving early.
3. Diaz will have the benefit of Coach Kool being on staff.
1. Taking over Will Muschamp/ DJ Durkin's defense, both who are really great defensive minds.
2. The D already had an established top CB and a bunch of big boys on the line (somewhere it was said MISS ST had only 1 5* recruit defensively)
3. I know alot like to hate Randy Shannon, but you're fooling yourself if you think he doesn't play a part in how much better Collins defense at UF is, in comparison to how his defense at Miss St was.
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Edit:
For comparison purposes
1. Diaz has already turned about 4 teams around defensively, don't know how many went from 3-4 base to his 4-3 aggressive (polar opposites) but he isn't new to changing a defense around.
2. Miami has MUCH more talent across the board than Miss ST...even with Burns leaving early.
3. Diaz will have the benefit of Coach Kool being on staff.
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