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A lot of names were being thrown around during the DC search and one of them I didn't personally see (probably because it wasn't a viable option) was Geoff Collins from florida who most see as an excellent defensive coordinator. People have been comparing Diaz to Aranda and Brown but both aren't really accurate comparisons as they all play in different conferences with different players, head coaches, offesnses with different time of possessions and styles, etc.
imo the geoff collins comparison is as close as we can hope for
this year under collins, Florida ranked in the top ten in nearly every important metric here --> (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE)
just a quick note on collins, in base stats Florida was #39 in red-zone defense, #18 in 3rd defense, #11 in scoring defense, #25 in rushing defense, #14 in passing defense, and #9 in total defense
cfbstats.com - 2015 National
even without the stats, most with a pulse on the board would agree that florida's defense was the goods this past year even after losing Durkin.
Also I'd like to mention in no way am I implying that Diaz is better than Collins. Collins is an excellent coordinator and has no blemish on his record. These are simply stats with the same players, at the same school, playing the same competition, with the same HC and offense being ran so about as fair as a comparison as we could hope for. Maybe can shed some light on how successful a defensive coordinator can be at Miss state with the offense they run/talent they have/competition/etc,..
One coordinator seems to be beloved, the other..not so much. Collins had an amazing year in 2013 at Miss State which cannot go unnoticed and is what got him the job at florida imo. he was top 5 in nearly every statistic in 2013 at Mississippi state(why he's one of the best names right now in the SEC at least). However he did have a drop off in 2014 at State before jumping ship to florida and dominating there. I chose to go with 2014 because it was direct handoff in talent from one coach to the other so it would be the closest and most fair comparison of both coaches
I think it would be beneficial to show the comparisons between the two coaches as Collins left Mississippi State for the florida job and Diaz took over after him. The coaches also run a very similar 4-3 base attacking defense. One thing to note is that 8 starters left Collins defense via draft or graduation before Diaz took the reigns. 3 seemed to be key contributors, other 5 seemed to be replaceable so tifwiw or someone else in the know can chime in there.
Here's key breakdowns of Mississippi state defense both years. Again normally stats like this would not be as comparable with coaches at different programs but was a direct handoff from one coach to another with same style defense, same offense on other side of the ball, same competition, same head coach, etc. so as close as we can get imo without looking at some of the advanced stats that were posted in the other thread that give a more direct correlation to this stuff:
Scoring Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 23rd (21.7 ppg allowed)
2015 w/ Diaz: 36th (23.2 ppg allowed)
Rushing Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 44th (151.54 yds allowed per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 70th (174.6 yds allowed per game)
Passing Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 117th (272.8 yds allowed per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 57th (216.5 yds allowed per game)
Total Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 86th (424.4 yds allowed per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 56th (391.2 yds allowed per game)
Third Down Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 21st (34.95%)
2015 w/ Diaz: 37th (35.5%)
Tackles for Loss
2014 w/ Collins: 34th (6.5 per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 13th (7.54 per game)
Interceptions/U]
2014 w/ Collins: 15th (16)
2015 w/ Diaz: 42nd (13)
Forced Fumbles
2014 w/ Collins: 45th (12)
2015 w/ Diaz: 123rd (5)
Sacks
2014 w/ Collins: 20th (37)
2015 w/ Diaz: 42nd (30)
Opponent Long Passing Plays (20+ yards)
2014 w/ Collins: 105th (47 went for 20+) (25 went for 30+)
2015 w/ Diaz: 4th (27 went for 20+) (12 went for 30+)
Opponent Long Rushing Plays (10 plus yards)
2014 w/ Collins: 59th (64 went for 10+) (17 went for 20+)
2015 w/ Diaz: 79th (71 went for 10+) (17 went for 20+)
Red Zone Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 1st ( 44 attempts, 28 scores = 63.64%) (43.1% td)
2015 w/ Diaz: 9th (45 attempts, 33 scores = 73.33 %) (42.2% td)
Mississippi State's Offensive Time of Possession
2014 w/ Collins: 71st (29:37)
2015 w/ Diaz: 123rd (26:16)
To me this says a few things. 1) collins year in 2013 proved that a team like Mississippi state could be ranked in the elite in terms of total defense and all key metrics so although most significant players were lost from that 2013 year to 2015 when Diaz took over, it could be done there which should be noted. (Diaz had very successful year there in 2010, not to the extent of what collins did in '13 but still bcs caliber imo)
2) Nothing to me seems significant in terms of the differences other than pass defense went from 117th to 57th under Diaz (55 yd decrease). Rushing yards allowed increased under Diaz approximately 23 yards and went from 44th to 70th. Diaz teams gave up bigger plays less often overall which is a pretty significant stat. Collins teams forced more turnovers however Diaz led the country in that statistic the year before at LA tech so i'm not sure that has too much weight to it. Overall, I think it's fair to say Diaz maintained or improved on most metrics while losing 8 starters.
A question for those who are a little more knowledgeable on schemes and formations. Is there anything collins did his last year in Mississippi state differently than what he runs at florida? is his success at florida more an attribute to the increased talent available? considering they play in the same conference the competition drop off isn't significant and the offense at Florida was absolutely horrendous. Factoring in all of that, it's even more impressive what he did there in my opinion with his defense constantly being on the field.
This could be a very similar situation of Diaz jumping here and getting access to more talent (and coach kool which may be the biggest thing)
I have a lot of respect for Collins so just seeing if i'm not looking deep enough in these stats.
Although i've posted a lot of stats on Diaz, I'm very shaky on him as our DC and was not happy about this hire at all.I really wanted someone who was statistically more successful (a la don brown or Aranda). Ive been trying to dig deeper to see what he brings and how good he really is as a play caller to try to understand what it is that Richt saw in him.
He gets a lot of crap for his final Texas days (which he should as they were abysmal) but the more I look into his defenses at LA Tech and Miss state I start to get a little more excited about what's to come.
I think it's clear when looking at it objectively that he has improved significantly since the outing at texas in both stops in just one year each. Is it enough to be big time and help win the ACC/ Nat'l Championship game? probably not as of now but if he shares any of the same boosted success at Florida then quite possibly.
He's not elite, and wasn't Miami's first choice. But he has performed very well, and on par with one of the best in the biz the last few years and he's moving to a team within a weaker conference, that has more talent, and paired along side the best d line coach in the country. Many have been worried about our secondary hires and I tend to agree with them.His pass defense seems to be the only thing he has proven to be very average at in terms of yardage. He's been great in not giving up big passing play and stopping third downs, however teams seem to be able to move the ball on his defense and he's been ranked anywhere from mid 30's to 90th in pass D (although sometimes a difference in ranking like this is only a matter of 30 yds, such is the case this year so tifwiw). I do however believe that he can improve in that mightily with an even better pass rush with coach Kool. However a proven DB coach would have been better.
Another main concern is that he has not been in one spot very long outside of his stint at Texas that did not end well. Now I don't want to speculate on whether that was mack brown or him or what the **** happened there but a lot has changed and in a good way for the man
If anyone knows of any outliers or things that I missed that may have skewed these incorrectly? We've been comparing Diaz to people like Aranda which isn't really an accurate comparison at all so I figured this would be as close as we got. feel free to add more info
Anyone have any opinions/insight on Diaz posting similar numbers to one of the most successful DC's the last 4 years in cfb with 8 less starters, while the offense had significantly worse time of possession, same competition, etc.?
this is an article from right after their Bama game, 10 games in and before the Arkansas game comparing the two coaches. Some of the stats in the article may be different from what I posted because I used the whole season's stats and of course this only had 10 games.
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/mi...ippi-state-fans-be-satisfied-with-manny-diaz/
imo the geoff collins comparison is as close as we can hope for
this year under collins, Florida ranked in the top ten in nearly every important metric here --> (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE)
just a quick note on collins, in base stats Florida was #39 in red-zone defense, #18 in 3rd defense, #11 in scoring defense, #25 in rushing defense, #14 in passing defense, and #9 in total defense
cfbstats.com - 2015 National
even without the stats, most with a pulse on the board would agree that florida's defense was the goods this past year even after losing Durkin.
Also I'd like to mention in no way am I implying that Diaz is better than Collins. Collins is an excellent coordinator and has no blemish on his record. These are simply stats with the same players, at the same school, playing the same competition, with the same HC and offense being ran so about as fair as a comparison as we could hope for. Maybe can shed some light on how successful a defensive coordinator can be at Miss state with the offense they run/talent they have/competition/etc,..
One coordinator seems to be beloved, the other..not so much. Collins had an amazing year in 2013 at Miss State which cannot go unnoticed and is what got him the job at florida imo. he was top 5 in nearly every statistic in 2013 at Mississippi state(why he's one of the best names right now in the SEC at least). However he did have a drop off in 2014 at State before jumping ship to florida and dominating there. I chose to go with 2014 because it was direct handoff in talent from one coach to the other so it would be the closest and most fair comparison of both coaches
I think it would be beneficial to show the comparisons between the two coaches as Collins left Mississippi State for the florida job and Diaz took over after him. The coaches also run a very similar 4-3 base attacking defense. One thing to note is that 8 starters left Collins defense via draft or graduation before Diaz took the reigns. 3 seemed to be key contributors, other 5 seemed to be replaceable so tifwiw or someone else in the know can chime in there.
Here's key breakdowns of Mississippi state defense both years. Again normally stats like this would not be as comparable with coaches at different programs but was a direct handoff from one coach to another with same style defense, same offense on other side of the ball, same competition, same head coach, etc. so as close as we can get imo without looking at some of the advanced stats that were posted in the other thread that give a more direct correlation to this stuff:
Scoring Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 23rd (21.7 ppg allowed)
2015 w/ Diaz: 36th (23.2 ppg allowed)
Rushing Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 44th (151.54 yds allowed per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 70th (174.6 yds allowed per game)
Passing Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 117th (272.8 yds allowed per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 57th (216.5 yds allowed per game)
Total Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 86th (424.4 yds allowed per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 56th (391.2 yds allowed per game)
Third Down Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 21st (34.95%)
2015 w/ Diaz: 37th (35.5%)
Tackles for Loss
2014 w/ Collins: 34th (6.5 per game)
2015 w/ Diaz: 13th (7.54 per game)
Interceptions/U]
2014 w/ Collins: 15th (16)
2015 w/ Diaz: 42nd (13)
Forced Fumbles
2014 w/ Collins: 45th (12)
2015 w/ Diaz: 123rd (5)
Sacks
2014 w/ Collins: 20th (37)
2015 w/ Diaz: 42nd (30)
Opponent Long Passing Plays (20+ yards)
2014 w/ Collins: 105th (47 went for 20+) (25 went for 30+)
2015 w/ Diaz: 4th (27 went for 20+) (12 went for 30+)
Opponent Long Rushing Plays (10 plus yards)
2014 w/ Collins: 59th (64 went for 10+) (17 went for 20+)
2015 w/ Diaz: 79th (71 went for 10+) (17 went for 20+)
Red Zone Defense
2014 w/ Collins: 1st ( 44 attempts, 28 scores = 63.64%) (43.1% td)
2015 w/ Diaz: 9th (45 attempts, 33 scores = 73.33 %) (42.2% td)
Mississippi State's Offensive Time of Possession
2014 w/ Collins: 71st (29:37)
2015 w/ Diaz: 123rd (26:16)
To me this says a few things. 1) collins year in 2013 proved that a team like Mississippi state could be ranked in the elite in terms of total defense and all key metrics so although most significant players were lost from that 2013 year to 2015 when Diaz took over, it could be done there which should be noted. (Diaz had very successful year there in 2010, not to the extent of what collins did in '13 but still bcs caliber imo)
2) Nothing to me seems significant in terms of the differences other than pass defense went from 117th to 57th under Diaz (55 yd decrease). Rushing yards allowed increased under Diaz approximately 23 yards and went from 44th to 70th. Diaz teams gave up bigger plays less often overall which is a pretty significant stat. Collins teams forced more turnovers however Diaz led the country in that statistic the year before at LA tech so i'm not sure that has too much weight to it. Overall, I think it's fair to say Diaz maintained or improved on most metrics while losing 8 starters.
A question for those who are a little more knowledgeable on schemes and formations. Is there anything collins did his last year in Mississippi state differently than what he runs at florida? is his success at florida more an attribute to the increased talent available? considering they play in the same conference the competition drop off isn't significant and the offense at Florida was absolutely horrendous. Factoring in all of that, it's even more impressive what he did there in my opinion with his defense constantly being on the field.
This could be a very similar situation of Diaz jumping here and getting access to more talent (and coach kool which may be the biggest thing)
I have a lot of respect for Collins so just seeing if i'm not looking deep enough in these stats.
Although i've posted a lot of stats on Diaz, I'm very shaky on him as our DC and was not happy about this hire at all.I really wanted someone who was statistically more successful (a la don brown or Aranda). Ive been trying to dig deeper to see what he brings and how good he really is as a play caller to try to understand what it is that Richt saw in him.
He gets a lot of crap for his final Texas days (which he should as they were abysmal) but the more I look into his defenses at LA Tech and Miss state I start to get a little more excited about what's to come.
I think it's clear when looking at it objectively that he has improved significantly since the outing at texas in both stops in just one year each. Is it enough to be big time and help win the ACC/ Nat'l Championship game? probably not as of now but if he shares any of the same boosted success at Florida then quite possibly.
He's not elite, and wasn't Miami's first choice. But he has performed very well, and on par with one of the best in the biz the last few years and he's moving to a team within a weaker conference, that has more talent, and paired along side the best d line coach in the country. Many have been worried about our secondary hires and I tend to agree with them.His pass defense seems to be the only thing he has proven to be very average at in terms of yardage. He's been great in not giving up big passing play and stopping third downs, however teams seem to be able to move the ball on his defense and he's been ranked anywhere from mid 30's to 90th in pass D (although sometimes a difference in ranking like this is only a matter of 30 yds, such is the case this year so tifwiw). I do however believe that he can improve in that mightily with an even better pass rush with coach Kool. However a proven DB coach would have been better.
Another main concern is that he has not been in one spot very long outside of his stint at Texas that did not end well. Now I don't want to speculate on whether that was mack brown or him or what the **** happened there but a lot has changed and in a good way for the man
If anyone knows of any outliers or things that I missed that may have skewed these incorrectly? We've been comparing Diaz to people like Aranda which isn't really an accurate comparison at all so I figured this would be as close as we got. feel free to add more info
Anyone have any opinions/insight on Diaz posting similar numbers to one of the most successful DC's the last 4 years in cfb with 8 less starters, while the offense had significantly worse time of possession, same competition, etc.?
this is an article from right after their Bama game, 10 games in and before the Arkansas game comparing the two coaches. Some of the stats in the article may be different from what I posted because I used the whole season's stats and of course this only had 10 games.
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/mi...ippi-state-fans-be-satisfied-with-manny-diaz/
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