HurricaneVision
Staff Writer
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2012
- Messages
- 943
I've tried to approach my thoughts on the coaching search from an analytical perspective, so I researched links to winning, records vs. the spread, record vs. top-25 teams, bowl records, performance of team year prior and post (if left job for another job), as well as ancillary items such as player development, or looking for flukes such as dominant players coming onboard. A few things came out of this study that surprised me and interested me as well.
The major impact that looking at records against the spread has really comes from looking at the margins. Most coaches are bunched up in the middle and come in around .520. You don't learn much from the coaches in the middle, but you can really see the teams that underperform and overperform quickly once you get to the 5% of each end of the tail. The second worst head coach against the spread over the past 13 seasons has been Mario Cristobal (34-39-1). While the spread is meant more to gain action on each side than it is to simply gauge strength of teams, the spread does serve as a single metric to account for location, talent, coaching, recent success etc. Cristobal was pretty terrible in this regard. A second coach that has been mentioned as a darkhorse candidate has been Rich Rodriguez, and he has also been terrible against the spread. In fact, due to his tenure at Michigan, he came in last place at 62-81-2. Two of the outliers at the top were Nick Saban at LSU, and Tom Herman as an OC and HC. Number 1 overall over this time period was Urban Meyer. It should be noted Al Golden fared very well in this metric at Temple, but was playing a much lower level of competition.
It was absolutely stunning to me how coaches fared against the top-25 in my research. Some of this is obvious: the best teams in the top-25 are highly ranked in the top-25 because they have built-in advantages and are talented teams. That said, this metric seeks to identify how coaches do against good teams. Not surprisingly, the best coaches against the top-25 are elite coaches. #1 in winning percentage is David Shaw- dude is 16-4 against the top-25 at an elite academic private university. Next is Nick Saban, who is 53-36 against the top-25. Urban is 25-12 against the top-25.
All of this to say, it is really hard to consistently win games against the top-25. There are only 11 active coaches with a winning record against the top-25. Fuente got his first win against the top-25 this year over Ole Miss, he is 1-3. Herman hasn't had a chance yet. Cristobal was 0-6. Schiano was 3-15 in his time at Rutgers.
Some of the guys you'd love to go after based on some of this information:
David Shaw- Not happening. From California, played at Stanford, has that program rolling. That said, he's your "pie in the sky" dream. He is legitimate.
Gus Malzahn- He would obviously have to be let go from Auburn, but there is noise he is wearing out his welcome there. His offense- reliant on speed and running the ball- would absolutely kill here. He would need a strong DC, but I think he'd win immediately. Another that's not really a candidate.
Kyle Whittingham- Another longshot coach, but he is a flat out stud. His teams have consistently won, he's learned under some really impressive coaches, and his results are always top-notch. Downside is he is from the West, is Mormon, and has turned down several bigger offers to stay at Utah (turning down over $3 million to go to Tennessee). The metrics like this guy a lot.
Chris Petersen- Consistent winner who is known for his ability to exploit the weaknesses of his opponents. He's a West coast lifer who isn't coming here. Another guy that the metrics really like.
You hear calls to go after Dan Mullen from time-to-time, but did you know he is 2-23 against the top-25?
Gary Pinkel is a coach who has overcome resource deficiencies, prestige questions, and geographic issues to be fairly successful. When you dive deeper though, you see a coach who relies on being able to out-talent his opponent to win games and really wins the games he should, and loses the games he should. The metrics rate him as a middle-of-the-road guy.
From the list of guys that you hear rumored to be under consideration, you have a wide range of options. Schiano has proven he can build a program back up, play strong defense, win bowl games (5-1), and play a tough, physical style. Cristobal is by far the worst option and the metrics rated him as one of the worst HC's in the country, almost solely reliant on being more talented than the opponent.
If we go outside of the "family" I'd at least entertain the idea of Gus Malzahn, but that is not an option, the guy to go after is Tom Herman. Something consistently shown in the elite coaches is the fact that they produce results immediately. There is no real stage where guys need to rebuild things. It is instant and immediate, almost without fail.
Saban took a MAC team (Toledo) from a loser to a 9 win team the very next year. He resigned to take a DC position under Belichick. When he came back to Michigan State he mixed in big wins with head scratching losses, but the bite was there.
Urban took another MAC team,Bowling Green, from a 2-9 team to 8-3 in his very first year. Then went 10-2 his first year at Utah.
Gus Malzahn took offenses to #1 in the country immediately. Then won big immediately at Arkansas State and Auburn.
Tom Herman has immediately been a star at every single stop he's been at. This isn't a guy riding the coattails of Urban Meyer, this is a guy who made Rice dynamic on the offensive side. He's a guy that everywhere he leaves sees a dropoff every single time. He's the type you pay $3.5 million to and then get a great DC to run a defense.
Justin Fuente is a bit more of a grinder type. What he does extremely well is develop QB's. When he went to TCU Andy Dalton took off. They went 12-1, 13-0, 11-2 when he was the OC. He leaves, they go 7-6 and 4-8 immediately after. He's got the road win over Ole Miss on his resume. His offense actually is a power running offense that relies on speed and space outside. His offense is honestly tailor made for the talent here in S. Florida. From a metrics standpoint, this is the guy to go get. FPI analytics likes his team and overall approach more than Herman, who doesn't run quite as overall a scheme as Fuente. He's known to be the favorite at South Carolina.
Butch is your best bet if you want to go the route of a guy known to want the job, and able to afford him.
Cristobal is your worst option and would set the program back years if we selected him.
Schiano would return us to 9 win ways, win some solid bowl games, and at least make us play defense again. A fairly meh hire.
Malzahn is the HR hire, swing for the fences type, where we could be back, or it could be an epic disaster.
Herman is the guy I'd go after, but save some money for a big-time DC. Maybe even Butch Davis at $1.5 million or so.
Fuente is the guy I'm most convinced will be solid wherever he goes, but something about things tells me he would be solid, but not dynamic.
Dino Babers would be so, so fun here. He's the Kevin Sumlin of this round of interviews. He's not a candidate, I'm sure, but I am a big fan of that guy if you go the expensive DC route.
Lots of fun options out there, and I can convince myself to be happy about almost any of them but Cristobal.
The major impact that looking at records against the spread has really comes from looking at the margins. Most coaches are bunched up in the middle and come in around .520. You don't learn much from the coaches in the middle, but you can really see the teams that underperform and overperform quickly once you get to the 5% of each end of the tail. The second worst head coach against the spread over the past 13 seasons has been Mario Cristobal (34-39-1). While the spread is meant more to gain action on each side than it is to simply gauge strength of teams, the spread does serve as a single metric to account for location, talent, coaching, recent success etc. Cristobal was pretty terrible in this regard. A second coach that has been mentioned as a darkhorse candidate has been Rich Rodriguez, and he has also been terrible against the spread. In fact, due to his tenure at Michigan, he came in last place at 62-81-2. Two of the outliers at the top were Nick Saban at LSU, and Tom Herman as an OC and HC. Number 1 overall over this time period was Urban Meyer. It should be noted Al Golden fared very well in this metric at Temple, but was playing a much lower level of competition.
It was absolutely stunning to me how coaches fared against the top-25 in my research. Some of this is obvious: the best teams in the top-25 are highly ranked in the top-25 because they have built-in advantages and are talented teams. That said, this metric seeks to identify how coaches do against good teams. Not surprisingly, the best coaches against the top-25 are elite coaches. #1 in winning percentage is David Shaw- dude is 16-4 against the top-25 at an elite academic private university. Next is Nick Saban, who is 53-36 against the top-25. Urban is 25-12 against the top-25.
All of this to say, it is really hard to consistently win games against the top-25. There are only 11 active coaches with a winning record against the top-25. Fuente got his first win against the top-25 this year over Ole Miss, he is 1-3. Herman hasn't had a chance yet. Cristobal was 0-6. Schiano was 3-15 in his time at Rutgers.
Some of the guys you'd love to go after based on some of this information:
David Shaw- Not happening. From California, played at Stanford, has that program rolling. That said, he's your "pie in the sky" dream. He is legitimate.
Gus Malzahn- He would obviously have to be let go from Auburn, but there is noise he is wearing out his welcome there. His offense- reliant on speed and running the ball- would absolutely kill here. He would need a strong DC, but I think he'd win immediately. Another that's not really a candidate.
Kyle Whittingham- Another longshot coach, but he is a flat out stud. His teams have consistently won, he's learned under some really impressive coaches, and his results are always top-notch. Downside is he is from the West, is Mormon, and has turned down several bigger offers to stay at Utah (turning down over $3 million to go to Tennessee). The metrics like this guy a lot.
Chris Petersen- Consistent winner who is known for his ability to exploit the weaknesses of his opponents. He's a West coast lifer who isn't coming here. Another guy that the metrics really like.
You hear calls to go after Dan Mullen from time-to-time, but did you know he is 2-23 against the top-25?
Gary Pinkel is a coach who has overcome resource deficiencies, prestige questions, and geographic issues to be fairly successful. When you dive deeper though, you see a coach who relies on being able to out-talent his opponent to win games and really wins the games he should, and loses the games he should. The metrics rate him as a middle-of-the-road guy.
From the list of guys that you hear rumored to be under consideration, you have a wide range of options. Schiano has proven he can build a program back up, play strong defense, win bowl games (5-1), and play a tough, physical style. Cristobal is by far the worst option and the metrics rated him as one of the worst HC's in the country, almost solely reliant on being more talented than the opponent.
If we go outside of the "family" I'd at least entertain the idea of Gus Malzahn, but that is not an option, the guy to go after is Tom Herman. Something consistently shown in the elite coaches is the fact that they produce results immediately. There is no real stage where guys need to rebuild things. It is instant and immediate, almost without fail.
Saban took a MAC team (Toledo) from a loser to a 9 win team the very next year. He resigned to take a DC position under Belichick. When he came back to Michigan State he mixed in big wins with head scratching losses, but the bite was there.
Urban took another MAC team,Bowling Green, from a 2-9 team to 8-3 in his very first year. Then went 10-2 his first year at Utah.
Gus Malzahn took offenses to #1 in the country immediately. Then won big immediately at Arkansas State and Auburn.
Tom Herman has immediately been a star at every single stop he's been at. This isn't a guy riding the coattails of Urban Meyer, this is a guy who made Rice dynamic on the offensive side. He's a guy that everywhere he leaves sees a dropoff every single time. He's the type you pay $3.5 million to and then get a great DC to run a defense.
Justin Fuente is a bit more of a grinder type. What he does extremely well is develop QB's. When he went to TCU Andy Dalton took off. They went 12-1, 13-0, 11-2 when he was the OC. He leaves, they go 7-6 and 4-8 immediately after. He's got the road win over Ole Miss on his resume. His offense actually is a power running offense that relies on speed and space outside. His offense is honestly tailor made for the talent here in S. Florida. From a metrics standpoint, this is the guy to go get. FPI analytics likes his team and overall approach more than Herman, who doesn't run quite as overall a scheme as Fuente. He's known to be the favorite at South Carolina.
Butch is your best bet if you want to go the route of a guy known to want the job, and able to afford him.
Cristobal is your worst option and would set the program back years if we selected him.
Schiano would return us to 9 win ways, win some solid bowl games, and at least make us play defense again. A fairly meh hire.
Malzahn is the HR hire, swing for the fences type, where we could be back, or it could be an epic disaster.
Herman is the guy I'd go after, but save some money for a big-time DC. Maybe even Butch Davis at $1.5 million or so.
Fuente is the guy I'm most convinced will be solid wherever he goes, but something about things tells me he would be solid, but not dynamic.
Dino Babers would be so, so fun here. He's the Kevin Sumlin of this round of interviews. He's not a candidate, I'm sure, but I am a big fan of that guy if you go the expensive DC route.
Lots of fun options out there, and I can convince myself to be happy about almost any of them but Cristobal.
