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Lmaoooooooooo at Shanny going for 2 down 8

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bowdenbme said:
What difference does a 2 pt lead vs a 1 pt lead do in that situation. Yall are clueless on this board.
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You're playing the result. Obviously it didn't mean ****, but at the time you want to get the lead don't you? Or you liked us being tied instead of winning?
 
Of all the things to be critical about in this game, and there's plenty, this was the one good decision. There was no way that Bubba was going to make two high pressure kicks, and that was proved absolutely accurate. Your best chance to win that game was to make him irrelevant to the final outcome. The bigger blunder was our defense letting them march down the field for the go-ahead touchdown pretty much on challenged.
 
HitStick2620 said:
You're playing the result. Obviously it didn't mean ****, but at the time you want to get the lead don't you? Or you liked us being tied instead of winning?
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No miami had tied the game already. Either successful conversion gets you the lead. How useful is a 2 pts lead compared to a 1 pt lead in a must score situation?
 
Dude said:
It actually makes statistical sense.
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Exactly. I thought it was a great move. The Virginia Tech defense was trash. The entire game their defense looked like our defense against Central Michigan...wide open spaces but the offense not capitalizing. Once we owned the energy deep in the 4th quarter I thought we were much more likely to connect on at least 1 out of 2 two-point conversions, than miss both of them. Down 14 points that's basically what you need -- at least 1 out of 2 for overtime.

But if you connect on the first one then the probability swings considerably in your favor. Everybody in the stands had a surreal surge of emotion and energy once we cut it to 6, compared to if it had been 7. No question about it. Nobody needed to explain the new math.

We screwed up the possession down 35-14. If blame needs to be placed, it should be there. The games basically never end in college football. We were 14 point favorite. That's why 21 points down with 12:30 remaining is hardly insurmountable. Morons were filing out of the stadium as if we were 14 point underdog. That is an entirely different dynamic. I could understand people leaving if the game were pick-em. But when you are a major favorite then at least have a shred of knowledge that maybe there was a reason for it and there is still time for it to show up. Maybe I'm aware because I've wagered on thousands of games. We used to call it the Second Half Circus. That's what you get so often in college football.

The Canes desperately needed more urgency down 35-14. The offense obviously didn't fully believe a comeback was still possible. Somehow we were lounging around in the huddle with the clock running and not snapping the ball until 11 or 12. This was happening time and again. Consequently that drive required 5:40. Imagine if it had been a minute or two quicker. If so, everything changes down the stretch.
 
305to954 said:
No I get what your saying..it was a unconventional call..but it worked..so how was it a bad decision?? Nick Saban once kicked a onside kick to start a half in the Natty..was unconventional but it worked so u can’t say it was a bad decision
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Just b/c it worked don’t mean it was the right call. DeeJay gave it his all to make that joint work. U have a chance to be down 1 TD, yet he potentially put us in a position to be down a TD w a 2 point try. It was a bad call and that’s y the announcers wouldn’t let it go. Yes, it worked out, but it was a foolish call, especially w the amount of time left on the clock. We weren’t down 15, we were down 14.
 
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edge said:
Manny is an analytics guy. He has a guy in the booth telling him what the percentages say to do. It’s a new breed of football. Wether it’s the right call or not, it’s not something he is pulling out of his butt. He is basing it on science.
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Ehh Manny is no Brad Pitt in moneyball. Dude is grasping at straws. Was supposed to be an easy 10 win season and we are 2-3.

I'm a huge data guy but Manny is either not using it or using it wrong.
 
Rellyrell said:
Just b/c it worked don’t mean it was the right call. DeeJay gave it his all to make that joint work. U have a chance to be down 1 TD, yet he potentially put us in a position to be down a TD w a 2 point try. It was a bad call and that’s y the announcers wouldn’t let it go. Yes, it worked out, but it was a foolish call, especially w the amount of time left on the clock. We weren’t down 15, we were down 14.
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Yea..in hindsight u could say bubba would’ve missed the chance to cut it to 7 anyways rell..rather it was the right call to go with conventional wisdom of kicking the PAT is a mute point..if we win that game by one, it’s gutsy and genius, if we lose by 2 at the end it’s boneheaded..but those two are hypothetical. What actually happened, that call has no bearing on, so for me it’s a wash
 
Real bosses go for two for the lead not down 8 lol DJ saved his ***. No doubt Baxa choked because it was thought to be the game winner. I bet he makes the one to put us down 7. Then the next TD, Manny should have went for 2. Doesn't matter anyway, that defense wasn't stopping VT.
 
Meast21 said:
Ehh Manny is no Brad Pitt in moneyball. Dude is grasping at straws. Was supposed to be an easy 10 win season and we are 2-3.

I'm a huge data guy but Manny is either not using it or using it wrong.
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The data only matters when you have the fundamentals of the job dowm, which Manny clearly does not.
 
subzero said:
In a vacuum, it's a clear cut statistical answer: down 14, going for 2 is an advantageous decision over going for 1 (assuming a score by the opponent "ends" the game either way). In said vacuum, Manny made the correct statistical decision.

It may seem "clear cut" to go for 1 at a glance, but, similar to the Monty Hall problem, there are "hidden statistics" if you will.

Essentially by going for 2, using averages here to make things simple, you leverage a very slightly increased chance in losing the game for an extremely large increased chance in winning that was once no chance.

There are plenty of articles breaking this down if you simply google it. Try "going for 2 down 14" and the results are overwhelming explaining it. See attached.

That said this is in a vacuum-- it doesn't account for details about your offense, red zone offense, conversion % and the reverse for the defense. So outside of that vacuum would I have done it based on our redzone offense, probably not, but maybe knowing Baxa sucks lol.

I am not happy with today's game but love seeing internet posters call others "retarted" when they are the ones who are wrong.
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Yes bro it’s so smart and so helpful it happens all the time. Oh wait, no it doesn’t. It’s stupid and analytics don’t prove anything. Percentages are heavily skewed toward kicking the XP and extending the game
 
HighSeas said:
predictivefootball.com

Late and Trailing: Always Go For 2 Down Eight After a Touchdown

There’s been a lot of talk[note]More negative than positive recently.[/note] about the Browns analytics-driven front office, yet on Sunday we saw an example of how their coach Hue Jackson&nbs…
predictivefootball.com predictivefootball.com

God we have some really dumb ignorant porsters. And they are the most arrogant ones that think they know everything.
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Lmao we definitely wanna become the Browns, am I right?
 
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When your kicker is such **** you go for 2 no matter what....

**** man, I got tears in my eyes but i'm not sure if it's from sadness or laughter.
 
TimeB0mb said:
Statistically, maybe. But he knows what we have in our kicker. I would rather put the game in DJ Dallas's hands than Bubba Baxa. VT drove straight down the field and scored a TD, so it wouldn't have mattered either way.

If Baxa had blown his knee out and we had no kicker, would you complain about going for 2? I assume not. You dont ask the punter to kick the FGs instead. That's even lower percentage than going for 2. For all intents and purposes, Baxa was unavailable. He was out with a case of the yips, which was proven on the very next Miami TD. The problem is Diaz lost his nerve. He should have gone for 2 the 2nd time as well. Baxa is the worst kicker I've ever seen.
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Every extra point before then was straight down the middle and got plenty of height early. I was watching closely to see if was going to ***** up. Baxa may not be good but he's not the worst. Andy Crosland may want a word with you. He made only 92% of his extra points. He's missed 13 of them over his 4 years here.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Lmao we definitely wanna become the Browns, am I right?
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Huh? Let me guess? You're an ignorant **** who can't read and didn't even bother to click on the link. The Browns were used as an example of a backwards organization with a dinosaur coach who refuses to believe in analytics because they kicked an XP down 14 after scoring a TD to cut it to 8. The Browns are the opposite of what Manny did.

The teams that go for 2 down 14 the most are, by my estimation, the Steelers and for sure the Eagles. Just the Eagles that beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl and contend every year with a modern offense incorporating the spread concepts most of you obsess over. But ***** math, ***** analytics and ***** highly successful NFL teams with sharp coaching staffs.
 
HighSeas said:
Huh? Let me guess? You're an ignorant **** who can't read and didn't even bother to click on the link. The Browns were used as an example of a backwards organization with a dinosaur coach who refuses to believe in analytics because they kicked an XP down 14 after scoring a TD to cut it to 8. The Browns are the opposite of what Manny did.

The teams that go for 2 down 14 the most are, by my estimation, the Steelers and for sure the Eagles. Just the Eagles that beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl and contend every year with a modern offense incorporating the spread concepts most of you obsess over. But ***** math, ***** analytics and ***** highly successful NFL teams with sharp coaching staffs.
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The logic behind it makes zero sense. The odds you make a 2 pt conversion isn’t 50%. That’s like saying the odds you make an extra point are 50%, just bc their are only 2 outcomes. XP’s are made at a 98% clip while conversions are made at about 45%. So you’re telling me it’s smart to try something that’s less than half as likely to succeed?

When you are at home and are the better team you should always play for OT. We were almost a 2 TD favorite which means in OT we would’ve probably been around a -200 favorite to win the game. But please tell us more about how it was great bc Deejay made an unreal play and Baxa missed the next XP.
 
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