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Lines Moving To Pickem By Tomorrow (Canes -3 now šŸ˜³)

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The difference between a point doesn't mean much to me, but maybe someone with a little more gambling experience can spin this to tell me we roll.
 
Pinnacle -1(-106) Miami ; Bookmaker -1.5 (-110) Miami as of right now. These books are better market indicators than the ones mentioned above. No offense.
 
Two of the major betting groups played Miami. One group had take orders of +2 or higher. They moved the line yesterday. Then the second group jumped in on top of that today and pushed it further in Miami's direction.

That's what I was told today. The source is good. He's a guy who moves money for one of the smaller outfits. Without being in Las Vegas full time anymore I don't always know exactly what happened.

But when you see a line move sharply later in the week, the groups are responsible. They typically wait until Thursday at earliest. A major reason for that is they also tinker with parlay cards. Those parlay cards have fixed numbers. So if you blast the line early in the week the parlay cards will already feature the adjusted number. But if you wait until the parlay numbers have already been sent to the printer and those parlays cards are on the racks, now you have access to "old" numbers. That is theoretically to your advantage. Let's say one of the huge groups played three games big late in the week. They will also try to play those games on parlay cards around town. For example, taking Miami +2.5 in combination with the two other games. Some joints will limit the parlay card action on those games that have moved sharply.

Anyway, this is a very winnable game for the Canes. I suspect our intensity level will be huge, dramatically above anything in recent weeks. Let's hope the Hokies are lulled based on our recent lethargic outings.

The scheduling sets up great, with problematic games at home as opposed to road where our lack of offense would probably lead to at least one thumping. It's also advantageous for Miami that Virginia Tech precedes Notre Dame and not the reverse. As I mentioned a few years ago when we were 7-0, upstart teams that lose for the first time late in the season tend to collapse instead of bouncing back. Consequently (and obviously) you want to delay that first defeat as long as possible. If we played Notre Dame first -- and lost -- then there's a major chance of a letdown and routine defeat against Virginia Tech. But if we can get past Virginia Tech then the energy should still be there against Notre Dame.

The Virginia game is a major letdown scenario if let's say we defeat Virginia Tech but then lose to Notre Dame.

****, win 'em all.
 
People have no idea what to think of this team. They see the talent and potential. I think the national media created a false narrative about the close games. Yes they were close but it was games we struggled to blow open, not games we struggled to keep pace. We had more yards than all the teams except FSU and by substantial margin. We will come alive tomorrow night.

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supacane said:
People have no idea what to think of this team. They see the talent and potential. I think the national media created a false narrative about the close games. Yes they were close but it was games we struggled to blow open, not games we struggled to keep pace. We had more yards than all the teams except FSU and by substantial margin. We will come alive tomorrow night.

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk
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Can say the same thing about Virginia Tech

Played two good teams, got blown out by Clemson and thoroughly outplayed by West Virginia but still won.

Three of their wins are against 2-6 ECU, 2-6 Old Dominion, and FBS Delaware.
 
Against BC, WV and Clemson, VT gave up an average of 150 yards ON THE GROUND per game.
 
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Long-time lurker, first time posting (here, I was a long-time poster on another site as Awsi Dooger, OriginalCanesCanesCanes, and some others will recognize from my username) and felt compelled to chime in here.

This line movement is amazing given there hasn't been a key injury announced on VT. ****, when Deshaun Watson went down with a torn ACL the other day, the initial adjustment was just 5.5 points in Indianapolis' favor. Pinnacle has seen a six point swing in Miami's favor and it appears all due to money and respect. These sites profile their winning gamblers - maybe 1% of all gamblers - and will move the line based on a smaller wager from one of their profiled winners before moving the line based on, say, a $100k by some losing bettor with a big bankroll. Pinnacle, Bookmaker, The Greek, Heritage, and some other offshore sites don't move "on air", either, meaning they aren't just seeing the line move at another site and adjusting their lines in anticipation of a huge bet. The fact we are now -3 has me downright giddy. This game is being bet as if it's already been played.

The biggest fallacy is that Vegas/offshore wants equal money on both sides. They don't.

Go Canes, I'm pumped as fvck for tonight, so pumped I came out of posting retirement.
 
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That point swing is amazing, never have seen it without some major injury, suspension, etc
 
CaneMutiny06 said:
Didn't LSU/UF see a similar point swing this year?
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Yes, and the line movement was on the winning side obviously. Still lots of time between now and kickoff, but I doubt it moves off the "3". My guess is we see the vig get heavy in either or favor or VT's, but the closing number is probably where we're at.

And now, we play the waiting game...
 
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my sucka *** got em it at CANES -6 ..but i went to vegas preseason and got whatever i could get..as for games they only had three of ours.. fsu (miami plus 10)... va tech (miami minus 6) .... ND (miami minus 6 1/2)
 
Poptimus said:
Long-time lurker, first time posting (here, I was a long-time poster on another site as Awsi Dooger, OriginalCanesCanesCanes, and some others will recognize from my username) and felt compelled to chime in here.

This line movement is amazing given there hasn't been a key injury announced on VT. ****, when Deshaun Watson went down with a torn ACL the other day, the initial adjustment was just 5.5 points in Indianapolis' favor. Pinnacle has seen a six point swing in Miami's favor and it appears all due to money and respect. These sites profile their winning gamblers - maybe 1% of all gamblers - and will move the line based on a smaller wager from one of their profiled winners before moving the line based on, say, a $100k by some losing bettor with a big bankroll. Pinnacle, Bookmaker, The Greek, Heritage, and some other offshore sites don't move "on air", either, meaning they aren't just seeing the line move at another site and adjusting their lines in anticipation of a huge bet. The fact we are now -3 has me downright giddy. This game is being bet as if it's already been played.

The biggest fallacy is that Vegas/offshore wants equal money on both sides. They don't.

Go Canes, I'm pumped as fvck for tonight, so pumped I came out of posting retirement.
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Never heard of you, but ok.
 
Some places will take a game down when the line shifts this much this quickly when thereā€™s no obvious reason like a loss of a star player.It starts to smell like a fix....

Been betting a long time and a shift like this without an injury is crazy.But I like where itā€™s going.
 
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