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Likely tournament disappointments
Georgetown, Miami, Michigan too one-dimensional to go deep
Note: Calculations and statistics based on games through March 2.
The 2012 Missouri Tigers finished the season on a roll, winning the Big 12 postseason title and claiming a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Led by first-year coach Frank Haith, the Tigers overwhelmed opponents with the most productive offense in college basketball, scoring 1.21 points per possession.
We all know what happened next. Missouri lost to Norfolk State in its first tournament game. Although no one predicted the Tigers would lose to the MEAC champions, Haith's team suffered from a major flaw that made a title unlikely. The Tigers' defense allowed 1.00 points per possession on the season, and 156 Division I teams allowed fewer points per trip.
At TeamRankings.com, we project the likely NCAA tournament seeds for each team in the nation and the probability of each team winning it all. Our projections favor teams that amass large point differentials over the course of the year. One-dimensional teams such as the 2012 Tigers have a harder time racking up large point differentials, making them unlikely champions. And we could see something similar play out this season.
The following are three NCAA tournament-bound teams that have been ranked highly in the AP poll yet are likely to disappoint in the bracket. In all three cases, our models project shockingly low chances for an NCAA championship.
Georgetown Hoyas
Most likely seed: 2
NCAA championship odds: 1 percent
Final Four odds: 7 percent
Sweet 16 odds: 41 percent
Georgetown is rolling in the Big East, currently on an 11-game winning streak in one of the NCAA's toughest leagues. The Hoyas have climbed to near the top of the AP poll in the past month. Championship futures odds make John Thompson III's team a 15-1 bet to win the title, but our system sets fair odds at 99-1.
The problem for the Hoyas is that they struggle to score. Georgetown averages 1.03 points per possession; there are six teams in the Big East alone that have scored more easily in conference play. Our system, driven by point differential, doesn't give Georgetown much of a chance to win the NCAA tournament, as the Hoyas' average per game point differential of plus-9 pales in comparison with the differential of tournament favorites such as Indiana. (With a plus-20 per game point differential, our models give the Hoosiers a 21 percent chance of winning it all.)
This is not to say Thompson's offense is bad; it is not. Georgetown leads the Big East in effective field goal percentage at 52 percent. Otto Porter and the Hoyas are effective from 2-point range and from 3.
But the Hoyas' offense is limited in several ways. Georgetown is one of the four worst offensive rebounding teams in the Big East, which limits the number of shots the Hoyas get to take. Turnovers cut further into the offensive performance of Thompson's team, with Georgetown ranking in the bottom four in the Big East in turnover rate.
Miami Hurricanes
Most likely seed: 1
NCAA championship odds: 2 percent
Final Four odds: 13 percent
Sweet 16 odds: 54 percent
Although Miami lost to Duke by three on Saturday, it is important to point out that our system wasn't particularly high on the Hurricanes even before that game. In fact, the Duke loss had essentially no effect on Miami's projected championship odds; forward-looking systems tend not to penalize teams for narrow road losses against top competition.
Miami is another team with a top defense that has challenges scoring. The Hurricanes' offense is better than Georgetown's, scoring 1.07 points per possession. Still, without some improvement in the NCAA tournament, this isn't likely to be good enough to win a title. Like the Hoyas, Miami doesn't get many second-chance baskets, despite all of its size.
Lacking a high-powered offense, Jim Larranaga's team has had its share of close shaves. Three consecutive narrow wins against Florida State, Clemson and Virginia were followed up by a loss at Wake Forest. These close games cut into the Miami point differential, which is only plus-9 points per game.
If Miami defies our predictions and makes a title run, it likely will be on the strength of its outstanding interior defense. Led by Julian Gamble, the Hurricanes have blocked 13 percent of opponent 2-point attempts in ACC games, and they have the 30th-highest shot-blocking percentage in Division I. As a result, Miami opponents have connected on only 43 percent of their 2-point attempts. Teams with strong interior defense have a history of winning the NCAA championship, with six of the past 10 national champions ranked in the top 25 in shot-blocking percentage.
Still, this one stat isn't likely to be enough to outweigh the effects of Miami's offensive limitations. Although bettors can find 8-1 championship odds on the Hurricanes, our projections put fair odds closer to 50-1.
Michigan Wolverines
Most likely seed: 3
NCAA championship odds: 3 percent
Final Four odds: 13 percent
Sweet 16 odds: 52 percent
Michigan has spent most of the season ranked in the AP top 10. John Beilein's team can score, but the defense appears to be lacking. Offshore books offer 7-1 championship futures bets on the Wolverines, but our system puts their championship odds at closer to 35-1.
Although it is tempting to compare the Wolverines to the 2012 Missouri Tigers, this comparison is not entirely right. The Michigan defense is better, allowing 0.96 points per possession. A better comparison might be the 2012 Indiana Hoosiers. A season ago, Indiana's offense was nearly as good as it is this year but the defense struggled occasionally. IU won two tournament games before colliding with a Kentucky squad that could both score and defend.
The key problem for the Michigan defense is an inability to protect the rim. Wolverines opponents are shooting 49 percent from 2-point range in conference play, and Beilein's team is last in the Big Ten in shot-blocking percentage. Opponents also have taken and hit their fair share of 3-pointers against UM, which, when combined with its interior struggles, gives Michigan the worst effective field goal percentage defense in the Big Ten and the 161st-ranked effective field goal percentage D in the nation. No recent champion has overcome such a weakness.
Any of these three teams is capable of surprising us and going on a tournament run. For instance, Georgetown could suddenly stop turning the ball over in March. And in a single elimination tournament, there is a great deal of opportunity for things to break in different ways. Still, history shows that the NCAA tournament delivers relatively few surprise champions and that the champions are usually teams that excel at both ends of the floor. A championship for Georgetown, Miami or Michigan would be a break from that tradition.
Note: Calculations and statistics based on games through March 2.
The 2012 Missouri Tigers finished the season on a roll, winning the Big 12 postseason title and claiming a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Led by first-year coach Frank Haith, the Tigers overwhelmed opponents with the most productive offense in college basketball, scoring 1.21 points per possession.
We all know what happened next. Missouri lost to Norfolk State in its first tournament game. Although no one predicted the Tigers would lose to the MEAC champions, Haith's team suffered from a major flaw that made a title unlikely. The Tigers' defense allowed 1.00 points per possession on the season, and 156 Division I teams allowed fewer points per trip.
At TeamRankings.com, we project the likely NCAA tournament seeds for each team in the nation and the probability of each team winning it all. Our projections favor teams that amass large point differentials over the course of the year. One-dimensional teams such as the 2012 Tigers have a harder time racking up large point differentials, making them unlikely champions. And we could see something similar play out this season.
The following are three NCAA tournament-bound teams that have been ranked highly in the AP poll yet are likely to disappoint in the bracket. In all three cases, our models project shockingly low chances for an NCAA championship.
Georgetown Hoyas
Most likely seed: 2
NCAA championship odds: 1 percent
Final Four odds: 7 percent
Sweet 16 odds: 41 percent
Georgetown is rolling in the Big East, currently on an 11-game winning streak in one of the NCAA's toughest leagues. The Hoyas have climbed to near the top of the AP poll in the past month. Championship futures odds make John Thompson III's team a 15-1 bet to win the title, but our system sets fair odds at 99-1.
The problem for the Hoyas is that they struggle to score. Georgetown averages 1.03 points per possession; there are six teams in the Big East alone that have scored more easily in conference play. Our system, driven by point differential, doesn't give Georgetown much of a chance to win the NCAA tournament, as the Hoyas' average per game point differential of plus-9 pales in comparison with the differential of tournament favorites such as Indiana. (With a plus-20 per game point differential, our models give the Hoosiers a 21 percent chance of winning it all.)
This is not to say Thompson's offense is bad; it is not. Georgetown leads the Big East in effective field goal percentage at 52 percent. Otto Porter and the Hoyas are effective from 2-point range and from 3.
But the Hoyas' offense is limited in several ways. Georgetown is one of the four worst offensive rebounding teams in the Big East, which limits the number of shots the Hoyas get to take. Turnovers cut further into the offensive performance of Thompson's team, with Georgetown ranking in the bottom four in the Big East in turnover rate.
Miami Hurricanes
Most likely seed: 1
NCAA championship odds: 2 percent
Final Four odds: 13 percent
Sweet 16 odds: 54 percent
Although Miami lost to Duke by three on Saturday, it is important to point out that our system wasn't particularly high on the Hurricanes even before that game. In fact, the Duke loss had essentially no effect on Miami's projected championship odds; forward-looking systems tend not to penalize teams for narrow road losses against top competition.
Miami is another team with a top defense that has challenges scoring. The Hurricanes' offense is better than Georgetown's, scoring 1.07 points per possession. Still, without some improvement in the NCAA tournament, this isn't likely to be good enough to win a title. Like the Hoyas, Miami doesn't get many second-chance baskets, despite all of its size.
Lacking a high-powered offense, Jim Larranaga's team has had its share of close shaves. Three consecutive narrow wins against Florida State, Clemson and Virginia were followed up by a loss at Wake Forest. These close games cut into the Miami point differential, which is only plus-9 points per game.
If Miami defies our predictions and makes a title run, it likely will be on the strength of its outstanding interior defense. Led by Julian Gamble, the Hurricanes have blocked 13 percent of opponent 2-point attempts in ACC games, and they have the 30th-highest shot-blocking percentage in Division I. As a result, Miami opponents have connected on only 43 percent of their 2-point attempts. Teams with strong interior defense have a history of winning the NCAA championship, with six of the past 10 national champions ranked in the top 25 in shot-blocking percentage.
Still, this one stat isn't likely to be enough to outweigh the effects of Miami's offensive limitations. Although bettors can find 8-1 championship odds on the Hurricanes, our projections put fair odds closer to 50-1.
Michigan Wolverines
Most likely seed: 3
NCAA championship odds: 3 percent
Final Four odds: 13 percent
Sweet 16 odds: 52 percent
Michigan has spent most of the season ranked in the AP top 10. John Beilein's team can score, but the defense appears to be lacking. Offshore books offer 7-1 championship futures bets on the Wolverines, but our system puts their championship odds at closer to 35-1.
Although it is tempting to compare the Wolverines to the 2012 Missouri Tigers, this comparison is not entirely right. The Michigan defense is better, allowing 0.96 points per possession. A better comparison might be the 2012 Indiana Hoosiers. A season ago, Indiana's offense was nearly as good as it is this year but the defense struggled occasionally. IU won two tournament games before colliding with a Kentucky squad that could both score and defend.
The key problem for the Michigan defense is an inability to protect the rim. Wolverines opponents are shooting 49 percent from 2-point range in conference play, and Beilein's team is last in the Big Ten in shot-blocking percentage. Opponents also have taken and hit their fair share of 3-pointers against UM, which, when combined with its interior struggles, gives Michigan the worst effective field goal percentage defense in the Big Ten and the 161st-ranked effective field goal percentage D in the nation. No recent champion has overcome such a weakness.
Any of these three teams is capable of surprising us and going on a tournament run. For instance, Georgetown could suddenly stop turning the ball over in March. And in a single elimination tournament, there is a great deal of opportunity for things to break in different ways. Still, history shows that the NCAA tournament delivers relatively few surprise champions and that the champions are usually teams that excel at both ends of the floor. A championship for Georgetown, Miami or Michigan would be a break from that tradition.
