Reyrey
Sophomore
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2020
- Messages
- 1,066
Men Live, Women Lie, Numbers Don't.
First, wow this is so much better to do after a win. Team stat rankings don't tell a full a picture and are not a 1:1 for how a team will play. Not many stats are a 1:1 answer for a win or Loss. However, you can look holistically and see plenty of areas for strengths and losses to see pivotal areas of the game. I mentioned for Clemson, some of those areas, and they were pivotal in winning. Red Zone and Turnover battle for one. Yes, those are pivotal in any game. But I mentioned Clemson will use that defense to create field position and try to wear teams down. I stated, "Their offense is Mid", and I stand corrected there. We knew our defense could take advantage of a subpar Clemson O-Line. If we forced them away from the ground game and to have to win through the air, I didn't think Klubnik could beat us. We did, and he didn't. Got to touch on the Clemson game before we look at stats and the UVA game.
Clemson Game:
What a performance from the Defense. We aren't there yet as defense to hold teams to under 200 or 300 total yards. That's very tough to do against good teams. But if you eliminate one aspect of a game and make a team be one dimension, its much easier. I felt last weeks run defense was a product of our game plan to stop Maye. It worked in the first half but we got gassed in the second half with tempo. Clemson tried to run tempo on a couple of occasions, but we stood pat. Great adjustment from Guidry week over week. The D-line and LB play at the LOS was exception. Every player in that unit stepped up and played tremendous. Touch much praise to go around there. Clemson ran for less than 1 yard per carry. Yes, you read that right. Less than one yard per carry, for Clemson. With that you cant expect the our pass defense will hold them to 200 yards. Something has to give. From a birds eye view, I thought our Secondary played a solid game. Porter continues to be a very solid CB1. The challenged Davis plenty of times in 1:1 situations. Football is not a game where CB will win most 1:1 throws. Rules and the nature of the game don't allow it. But Davis won majority of his match ups. Clemson's success in the pass game came on the heals of two hats off throws and catches by Klubnik and their TE. Some times you got to just tip the cap and play the next play. Our guys were in position on both TDs. It was also reassuring to really not see guys running wide open and catching passes. I think the one slant they did have a big pick up and he was wide open, Davis slipped. Couch deserves some praise too. The pass break up on a 3rd down out route and the pass off on the rub play they ran in OT was picture perfect. As unit, great performance.
Offense, I will be the first to say that it was tough to watch and accept the game plan and play calling. But lets take a step back understand what we have pre game. We are coming off two gut wrenching losses. TVD, who statistically is playing at top 10 level in the country, is out late in the week/game time. We are playing the number 5 defense or whatever in the country. The have NFL prospects all over that defense. A true freshman is making his first start. Starting RB is out. Prior to the game, many people pegged this as the most important game in Mario's tenure. The rest of the season and possibly Mario's time here hinges on this performance. With all that being said, how do you set a game plan and call plays. Those are tough odds to overcome. But you know what you do, you ride on your culture. That is, physicality and play at the LOS. Do I wish we took more vertical or intermediate pass shots. Sure. Do I wish we threw less screens, sure. But if Emory struggles and throws an int or 2, that game might look a whole lot different. And then the fan base likely yells at Mario for putting the ball in the hands of EW in such a pivotal program. At the end of the day, Culture won on offense. J. George hustling down with B Smith in the long run to recover a fumble in the endzone. Allen, who was for all intensive purposes benched the previous few weeks, comes in and runs extremely hard all game. Every yard he got, he earned. O-line, setting the tone all game. The kept EW clean and wore down that NFL ridded D-Line. Emory Williams did not play "great". But, considering the circumstance, he played well. Maturity on him all game was impressive. He will improve, settle down, and be a great one for us. WR and especially Young did what they had to in key moments. That game is tough for a WR. Not really throwing it, when you do its short screens. New QB throwing a different ball. Its easy to get lost out there at that position and loos focus. But in big moments, those guys stepped up, especially Young.
Overall, this was a massive TEAM win.
So, how do we look nationally, and individually:
Big story, Red Zone improvement. We need to continue that. LOS is what Mario specializes in and its evident. Rush D continues to impress. Offensively, continue to be multidimensional. With Tyler back, being able to win on the ground or in the air makes us a tough match up.
UVA
College football 1, Metrics and Logic 0. Its a tale as old as time. Any team can truly win on any day. UVA beating UNC at home is evidence of that. Just look at the UVA rankings above. They are one of the worst teams in the country on defense. They are close to last in creating negative plays (TFL, Sacks). On offense, they give up sacks and TFLs at a bottom 10 in the country. Their turnover margin is 100th in the country. Their weaknesses are our strengths. And their strengths, well they don't have very many. Despite that, they just went on the road and beat the #10 team in the country. What does that tell us? Emotion, culture, and mindset are the number one thing here. I will touch on some key areas, allthough its obvious based on the above. But the number one factor in this game will be how each team handles the previous week.
Does UVA let that win carry momentum and turn the trajectory of the program under Tony Elliot in the right direction. Or does Miami do the same after such a pivotal game. Its an interesting dynamic to consider. Both team coming off of massive emotional victories. How does each respond? I don't know much about UVA, but to me this 2023 Miami team has impressed me with their ability to handle adversity and emotions. Texas A&M felt like a typical Miami blunder. We weathered the storm, came back and dominated. Following that win, we responded and held Bethune to essentially 100 yards and 0 points (not counting that last drive vs 2nd team D). Miami found everyway not to play a good game against GT. Came back late and put themselves in a position to Win. They imploded. Following that, Miami went on the road and led a very good UNC team at half. They found a way to loose that game. Starting QB out, True fresh starting, down 10 in the 4th, we found a way to win vs Clemson. All of that to me = a team that can respond to anything. They key is, lets not get into a position where we are behind the 8 ball. Have to move forward, not take a step backwards to try and take one forward.
I'm not going to go through our stats vs their stats for this game. We are on paper nearly better in every category. Control the LOS, play how we are capable of playing on Offense, and we shouldn't have any issue. But how did UVA beat UNC? Well holding the ball for 37 min, vs UNC's 23, and keeping Drake Maye of the field will help. They ran the ball 54 times for 228 yards (4.2 yards per carry). They threw for 200. UVA played physically, efficient (8-18 on 3rd and 2-3 on 4th) (6.9 yard per pass, 4.2 ypc), and controlled the game. We cant let them do the same. With that being said, do these things, we win by 20.
- New game. Don't dwell on Clemson game. Cant come out flat.
- Control the LOS. Verse more talented teams (A&M and Clemson) we dominated the LOS. GT and UNC, we did not. That's puzzling, and how we play there will mimic those games.
- Continue the improvement of ball protection and penalties. It wasn't a clean game, but 0 Personal Fouls vs Clemson and no bone headed penalties make Defense easier.
Canes 42 - UVA 20 (TVD BACK)
First, wow this is so much better to do after a win. Team stat rankings don't tell a full a picture and are not a 1:1 for how a team will play. Not many stats are a 1:1 answer for a win or Loss. However, you can look holistically and see plenty of areas for strengths and losses to see pivotal areas of the game. I mentioned for Clemson, some of those areas, and they were pivotal in winning. Red Zone and Turnover battle for one. Yes, those are pivotal in any game. But I mentioned Clemson will use that defense to create field position and try to wear teams down. I stated, "Their offense is Mid", and I stand corrected there. We knew our defense could take advantage of a subpar Clemson O-Line. If we forced them away from the ground game and to have to win through the air, I didn't think Klubnik could beat us. We did, and he didn't. Got to touch on the Clemson game before we look at stats and the UVA game.
Clemson Game:
What a performance from the Defense. We aren't there yet as defense to hold teams to under 200 or 300 total yards. That's very tough to do against good teams. But if you eliminate one aspect of a game and make a team be one dimension, its much easier. I felt last weeks run defense was a product of our game plan to stop Maye. It worked in the first half but we got gassed in the second half with tempo. Clemson tried to run tempo on a couple of occasions, but we stood pat. Great adjustment from Guidry week over week. The D-line and LB play at the LOS was exception. Every player in that unit stepped up and played tremendous. Touch much praise to go around there. Clemson ran for less than 1 yard per carry. Yes, you read that right. Less than one yard per carry, for Clemson. With that you cant expect the our pass defense will hold them to 200 yards. Something has to give. From a birds eye view, I thought our Secondary played a solid game. Porter continues to be a very solid CB1. The challenged Davis plenty of times in 1:1 situations. Football is not a game where CB will win most 1:1 throws. Rules and the nature of the game don't allow it. But Davis won majority of his match ups. Clemson's success in the pass game came on the heals of two hats off throws and catches by Klubnik and their TE. Some times you got to just tip the cap and play the next play. Our guys were in position on both TDs. It was also reassuring to really not see guys running wide open and catching passes. I think the one slant they did have a big pick up and he was wide open, Davis slipped. Couch deserves some praise too. The pass break up on a 3rd down out route and the pass off on the rub play they ran in OT was picture perfect. As unit, great performance.
Offense, I will be the first to say that it was tough to watch and accept the game plan and play calling. But lets take a step back understand what we have pre game. We are coming off two gut wrenching losses. TVD, who statistically is playing at top 10 level in the country, is out late in the week/game time. We are playing the number 5 defense or whatever in the country. The have NFL prospects all over that defense. A true freshman is making his first start. Starting RB is out. Prior to the game, many people pegged this as the most important game in Mario's tenure. The rest of the season and possibly Mario's time here hinges on this performance. With all that being said, how do you set a game plan and call plays. Those are tough odds to overcome. But you know what you do, you ride on your culture. That is, physicality and play at the LOS. Do I wish we took more vertical or intermediate pass shots. Sure. Do I wish we threw less screens, sure. But if Emory struggles and throws an int or 2, that game might look a whole lot different. And then the fan base likely yells at Mario for putting the ball in the hands of EW in such a pivotal program. At the end of the day, Culture won on offense. J. George hustling down with B Smith in the long run to recover a fumble in the endzone. Allen, who was for all intensive purposes benched the previous few weeks, comes in and runs extremely hard all game. Every yard he got, he earned. O-line, setting the tone all game. The kept EW clean and wore down that NFL ridded D-Line. Emory Williams did not play "great". But, considering the circumstance, he played well. Maturity on him all game was impressive. He will improve, settle down, and be a great one for us. WR and especially Young did what they had to in key moments. That game is tough for a WR. Not really throwing it, when you do its short screens. New QB throwing a different ball. Its easy to get lost out there at that position and loos focus. But in big moments, those guys stepped up, especially Young.
Overall, this was a massive TEAM win.
So, how do we look nationally, and individually:
| Category | Change | Miami | Vs. UVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Offense YPG |  3 | 10th | 92nd |
| Offense Yards Per Play | 2 | 9th | 71st |
| Pass Efficiency O | 4 | 15th | 73rd |
| Rush O | 1 | 28th | 103rd |
| Pass O | 10 | 24th | 65th |
| Red Zone O |  9 | 45th | 80th |
| Sacks Allowed | 7 | 15th | 123th |
| TFL Allowed | 22 | 42nd | 111th |
| Completion % | 2 | 10th | -- |
| 3rd Down O | 10 | 18th | 80th |
| Total Defense YPG | 4 | 22nd | 85th |
| Defensive YPP | 2 | 29th | 89th |
| Pass Efficiency D | 7 | 39th | 54th |
| TFL | 8 | 11th | 113th |
| Sacks | 11 | 11th | 115th |
| Rush D | 2 | 7th | 103rd |
| Red Zone D | 24 | 47th | 105th |
| Pass D | 13 | 73rd | 54th |
| 3rd Down D | 8 | 45rd | 91st |
| Penalty Yards Per Game | 2 | 123rd | 75th |
| Avg TOP | 7 | 10th | 28th |
| Turnover Margin | 25 | 75th | 105th |
| Player | Metric | ACC Rank (14 Teams) | NCAA Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| TVD | Rating | 1st | 7th |
| TVD | Completion % | 1st | T-12th |
| TVD | Yards Per Attempt | 1st | 9th |
| TVD | TDs | 1st | T-12th |
| Parrish | Yards | 10th | 81st |
| Chaney | Yards | 13th | 122nd |
| Restrepo | Rec | 2nd | 10th |
| Restrepo | Yards | 3rd | 27th |
| Restrepo | TD | T-8th | T-61st |
| George | Rec | T-8th | 86th |
| George | Yards | 5th | 68th |
| George | TD | T-4th | T-32nd |
| Young | Rec | T-11th | 108th |
| Young | Yards | 12th | 118th |
| Young | TD | T-8th | T-61st |
| Bain | Sacks | T-5th | T-46th |
| Couch | INT | T-1st | T-14th |
| Kinchens | INT | T-6th | T-52nd |
| B. Smith | KO Avg | 1st | 3rd |
| Borregales | FGM | 2nd | T-16th |
| Borregales | FG% | 3rd | T-16th |
| Joyce | Net Punt | 3rd | 42nd |
Big story, Red Zone improvement. We need to continue that. LOS is what Mario specializes in and its evident. Rush D continues to impress. Offensively, continue to be multidimensional. With Tyler back, being able to win on the ground or in the air makes us a tough match up.
UVA
College football 1, Metrics and Logic 0. Its a tale as old as time. Any team can truly win on any day. UVA beating UNC at home is evidence of that. Just look at the UVA rankings above. They are one of the worst teams in the country on defense. They are close to last in creating negative plays (TFL, Sacks). On offense, they give up sacks and TFLs at a bottom 10 in the country. Their turnover margin is 100th in the country. Their weaknesses are our strengths. And their strengths, well they don't have very many. Despite that, they just went on the road and beat the #10 team in the country. What does that tell us? Emotion, culture, and mindset are the number one thing here. I will touch on some key areas, allthough its obvious based on the above. But the number one factor in this game will be how each team handles the previous week.
Does UVA let that win carry momentum and turn the trajectory of the program under Tony Elliot in the right direction. Or does Miami do the same after such a pivotal game. Its an interesting dynamic to consider. Both team coming off of massive emotional victories. How does each respond? I don't know much about UVA, but to me this 2023 Miami team has impressed me with their ability to handle adversity and emotions. Texas A&M felt like a typical Miami blunder. We weathered the storm, came back and dominated. Following that win, we responded and held Bethune to essentially 100 yards and 0 points (not counting that last drive vs 2nd team D). Miami found everyway not to play a good game against GT. Came back late and put themselves in a position to Win. They imploded. Following that, Miami went on the road and led a very good UNC team at half. They found a way to loose that game. Starting QB out, True fresh starting, down 10 in the 4th, we found a way to win vs Clemson. All of that to me = a team that can respond to anything. They key is, lets not get into a position where we are behind the 8 ball. Have to move forward, not take a step backwards to try and take one forward.
I'm not going to go through our stats vs their stats for this game. We are on paper nearly better in every category. Control the LOS, play how we are capable of playing on Offense, and we shouldn't have any issue. But how did UVA beat UNC? Well holding the ball for 37 min, vs UNC's 23, and keeping Drake Maye of the field will help. They ran the ball 54 times for 228 yards (4.2 yards per carry). They threw for 200. UVA played physically, efficient (8-18 on 3rd and 2-3 on 4th) (6.9 yard per pass, 4.2 ypc), and controlled the game. We cant let them do the same. With that being said, do these things, we win by 20.
- New game. Don't dwell on Clemson game. Cant come out flat.
- Control the LOS. Verse more talented teams (A&M and Clemson) we dominated the LOS. GT and UNC, we did not. That's puzzling, and how we play there will mimic those games.
- Continue the improvement of ball protection and penalties. It wasn't a clean game, but 0 Personal Fouls vs Clemson and no bone headed penalties make Defense easier.
Canes 42 - UVA 20 (TVD BACK)
