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With all the talk about social media tweets, I thought this was a separate angle to discuss:
What does the decision look like financially?
Some people say Kaaya is expected to go in the top 10. While I completely disagree he's worth this risk to an NFL team, obviously he should go if it's the case. Others think he'll be, at worst, a 2nd rounder. If that's remotely true, he should also go. Others, including me, think he'll be maximum somewhere between a 3rd or early 4th rounder if he were to leave early. Looking at last year's draft, 10 QBs were taken in the top 5 rounds. 6 QBs were taken in the top 3 rounds.
Paxton Lynch, taken in the late 1st (26th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 9.5 million, with a 5 million signing bonus. (~7.8 million guaranteed)
Christian Hackenberg, taken in the 2nd (51st overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 4.6 million, with a 1.6 million signing bonus. (~2.2 million guaranteed)
Cody Kessler, taken in the 3rd (93rd overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 3.4 million, with a 660k signing bonus. (~1.1 million guaranteed)
Connor Cook, taken in the 4th (100th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and just shy of 3 million, with a 619k signing bonus. (619k guaranteed)
With anywhere from 5 to 6 guys currently "projected" above Kaaya at this time (pre-combine, etc.), the question is if Kaaya believes another year at Miami can help him show something different from his current limitations and perception to launch him into, at least, 2nd round money.
If that were the case, he'd hypothetically go from a total contract value of something like 3.9 million with approximately 800k guaranteed to 6.2 million total contract value with 2+ million guaranteed. For those wondering about a potential injury, please take under consideration insurance plans for players in Kaaya's position and vastly shorter timetables for what were career-ending injuries a couple decades ago.
What does the decision look like financially?
Some people say Kaaya is expected to go in the top 10. While I completely disagree he's worth this risk to an NFL team, obviously he should go if it's the case. Others think he'll be, at worst, a 2nd rounder. If that's remotely true, he should also go. Others, including me, think he'll be maximum somewhere between a 3rd or early 4th rounder if he were to leave early. Looking at last year's draft, 10 QBs were taken in the top 5 rounds. 6 QBs were taken in the top 3 rounds.
Paxton Lynch, taken in the late 1st (26th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 9.5 million, with a 5 million signing bonus. (~7.8 million guaranteed)
Christian Hackenberg, taken in the 2nd (51st overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 4.6 million, with a 1.6 million signing bonus. (~2.2 million guaranteed)
Cody Kessler, taken in the 3rd (93rd overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 3.4 million, with a 660k signing bonus. (~1.1 million guaranteed)
Connor Cook, taken in the 4th (100th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and just shy of 3 million, with a 619k signing bonus. (619k guaranteed)
With anywhere from 5 to 6 guys currently "projected" above Kaaya at this time (pre-combine, etc.), the question is if Kaaya believes another year at Miami can help him show something different from his current limitations and perception to launch him into, at least, 2nd round money.
If that were the case, he'd hypothetically go from a total contract value of something like 3.9 million with approximately 800k guaranteed to 6.2 million total contract value with 2+ million guaranteed. For those wondering about a potential injury, please take under consideration insurance plans for players in Kaaya's position and vastly shorter timetables for what were career-ending injuries a couple decades ago.
