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Josh Pate on rankings bias

WeBallinBoyz said:
At the end of the day whether you think they’re biased or not, the data shows stars matter long-term for winning, NFL draft picks, and collegiate championships.

So in essence, they’re right more often than they’re not. That’s not me, that’s the cold hard data.

Now I will say there’s a fine line between being a Gator cuck with star obsession, and realistically / objectively looking at ratings or evaluations.
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Well data would probably also suggest that these big schools producing nfl talent have better coaching, resources (support staff, trainers, equipment, technology, nutrition, etc) to help these kids meet their full potential, so it’s no different than smart kids being split amongst an elite academic school with top teachers and a crap school that’s understaffed with less qualified teachers. God given ability (or intelligence) can take you far and sometimes win out….but nurturing, grooming, training, and all the other little things will make the good ones even that much better. Situation matters. What if Mahomes was drafted into a situation like David Carr in Houston? What if Mac Jones went to SF instead of Lance? Could he have had a year like Purdy?
 
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SCarolina Ibis said:
They've already admitted to doing it. ****, Rivals had ex employees openly admitting that the Bama bump is real.

Pate actually said in this video that he gets messages, specifically from Miami fans, with lists of players who dropped in rankings after committing, but that its not true. Uh huh..

He seems to forget that he also did a segment after Jayden Wayne committed and immediately dropped in their ranking, and how fishy it looked.

There's always an excuse when it happens to the peasant programs. But no mention of it EVER happening to OSU, Bama or UGA. Why? Because it never happens to them. THAT'S what's so sketch about it.

Pate actually says the quite part out loud. Maybe Saban was ahead of blah blah blah when it comes to identifying talent. Or maybe recruiting services are giving Saban the benefit of the doubt and over ranking his recruits (the Bama bump), which is EXACTLY what everyone is complaining about.
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Last year I took a look at Oklahoma and Clemson and found many of their commits ended the year lower. Lets look at a bigger dog and compare.

Bama 2023: 28 commits

Commit composites that ended higher than where they started:
Keeley
Downs
Proctor
Haynes
Pierre
Russaw
Holstein
Formby
Alinen
Benson
Osborne
Hill
Hamilton
Adams
Hubbard
Montgomery
Talty



Commit composites ended lower than where they started:
Ricks
Smith
Hale
Hurley
Renaud
Young
Mitchell
Lonergan
McVay
Lockwood
Jefferson



Total up: 17
Total down: 11

Miami 2023: 26 commits


Commit composites that ended higher than where they started:
Okunlola
Bain
R Williams
Joseph
Fletcher
Stafford
Acheampong
Brown
R Washington
C Johnson
B Washington
Horton
Kinsler
E Williams
Carver
Spencer
Pulliam
Tinilau



Commit composites ended lower than where they started:
Mauigoa
Wayne
Bryant
Aguirre
Tripp



No Change/Not Ranked:
S Kirk
Joyce
Freeney

Total Up: 18
Total Down: 5
Total N/A: 3
 
westcoastcanes said:
Last year I took a look at Oklahoma and Clemson and found many of their commits ended the year lower. Lets look at a bigger dog and compare.

Bama 2023: 28 commits

Commit composites that ended higher than where they started:
Keeley
Downs
Proctor
Haynes
Pierre
Russaw
Holstein
Formby
Alinen
Benson
Osborne
Hill
Hamilton
Adams
Hubbard
Montgomery
Talty



Commit composites ended lower than where they started:
Ricks
Smith
Hale
Hurley
Renaud
Young
Mitchell
Lonergan
McVay
Lockwood
Jefferson



Total up: 17
Total down: 11

Miami 2023: 26 commits


Commit composites that ended higher than where they started:
Okunlola
Bain
R Williams
Joseph
Fletcher
Stafford
Acheampong
Brown
R Washington
C Johnson
B Washington
Horton
Kinsler
E Williams
Carver
Spencer
Pulliam
Tinilau



Commit composites ended lower than where they started:
Mauigoa
Wayne
Bryant
Aguirre
Tripp



No Change/Not Ranked:
S Kirk
Joyce
Freeney

Total Up: 18
Total Down: 5
Total N/A: 3
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Interesting intel;

In fact, here’s what I would like to know, & since I don’t have a 247 account, I can’t verify:

1. Since 2010, I would like the know the number of recruits we have committed that saw their rankings go up/down to see if we have a real gripe or is it just a perception for focusing only those who gets bumped down

2. For the recruits that did get bumped down or up, what was their production here, meaning was the industry right in bumping them up or down, in general.

I’m of the opinion that Josh was being a company man, defending his employer by being a bit disingenuous; however, I also feel like a lot of what he said is true, just not everything.

But that would be a great “to know” to see if as fans, we’re suffering from an inferiority complex or if the data proves us correct. So far, the info u laid out for the class of 2023 shows the vast majority of our recruits either got a bump or remained the same.
 
To get to the heart of this issue, its not simply a function of a recruit getting up or down rated, its an issue of WHEN they get up or down rated. We all know that recruiting is a game of momentum. The ratings services "appear" to be manipulating the mid-year rankings by playing with individual player rankings.
 
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