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jaelan phillips = chase young

ItsACanesThing7 said:
I hope you're right, Phillips stays, and he goes top five next year. However, pretending that it's a clear cut decision is over simplifying.

My point is based off the concept of expected value. I'm making the argument that you should compare the expected value of staying versus the expected value of leaving this year. That comparison, if done right, also considers if leaving a year early buys you an extra year in the league. It's a career decision, not a one year decision.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that neither of us misunderstand money, we just disagree on the probability of JP banking that $15M next year. I think its possible, but am not willing to say it's likely. I do feel confident that I understand money though.
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You’re right; I oversimplified and shouldn’t have. And based on your response, I think you understand money as well.

I‘m just trying to say that Phillips has a different decision than the rest of the Canes. His decision could literally cost him millions. Of, course it’s “probable” but it’s a path to consider.
 
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1mg of Epi said:
He’s got a history w injuries... he should go to the nfl now
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I think its the opposite. Because of his history with injuries and huge athletic upside he should consider taking out an insurance policy (which I believe schools are allowed to pay for) and work towards being a top 10 selection in the following draft. The difference in guaranteed money is in the tens of millions over the life the contract. 2nd and 3rd rounders dont get anything close to that amount guaranteed.

Just a different way of looking at it with the long game in mind. 16plus games a year plus pre-season and playoffs in the NFL = a much greater likelihood for carrier changing injuries than playing out one more year of college ball. Now carry that out over the length of a 4yr (or 5 if first rounder) rookie contract and I rather gamble on one more year of college. Returning to try and be a top 10 pick actually seems less risky than banking on a big second contract in the NFL.
 
SayWhat said:
Considering his past, I don't see any way he doesn't take whatever money and run.
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That all depends on the advice he gets. He more than likely knows and everyone who is smart enough knows that he should technically at the very least a second round talent.
He needs to secure the money by staying one more year and ensure that teams will have it in vested interest in him not some 5th or 6th round throwaway that gets waived if doesn’t flash in his first year.
IMO he’s just scratching the surface of what he can do.

No doubt that if last round management gets a hold of him they will fill his head up saying that he’s a guaranteed top 10 pig and he should actually stop playing now.
 
I’d say at best Phillips goes in the 20s. Another year of tape and production and he could play himself into the top 10. The difference in those picks in terms of salary and signing bonus on your rookie deal is basically double. Top 10 you’re looking at over $20 million (up to $35 million) and around 25-32 you’re looking at $10-12 million.

Most analysts say he’s a top 15 pick next year and a borderline 1st this year (likely 2nd rounder) essentially making another year at miami valued at about $12-15 million. Depends if he looks at it that way.

The mid round guys we typically lose aren’t looking at that kind of money and it’s more-so looking at the rookie salary and 1 year closer to the 2nd contract... there’s no huge signing bonus for a mid round player.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
I agree with you — the kid has definitely put in the work, but the difference between a top-5 pick and a bottom-5 first round pick is about $15 million. He’ll never make that back up.

If money is at least a part of the journey, then he might want to consider staying (and I’m always ”go now”).
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There's a time value to money. He turns 22 next spring before NFL rookie camps. He's physically and mentally ready for the NFL now. There are risks to playing another college season. Even if he returns and goes 1st round he won't be seeing a 2nd contract until he's 28. It's just not a sound decision.

You guys are assuming his current draft status is fixed. He wasn't on the radar until he started playing this season. He's going to be one of those pre-draft "risers".
 
I love Jaelan, but Chase was better and was the better prospect. Young is just so physically mature. Jaelan has only had 2 summers in a weight room. I remember seeing him at the spring game last year-and in fact, I commented on it on a thread I made about my observations-Jaelan looked like a LB. His lower body was underdeveloped at the time (presumably due to injuries and the layoff). Obviously, the kid has put work in in the weight room.

But I think he's gone. There is still too much uncertainty regarding covid and next year's football season. What if we have another disastrous year next year like some other schools have had and multiple games are cancelled? Under normal years, I think it'd be wise to come back and put out more tape but there's too much risk IMO for these kids right now.
 
HighSeas said:
There's a time value to money. He turns 22 next spring before NFL rookie camps. He's physically and mentally ready for the NFL now. There are risks to playing another college season. Even if he returns and goes 1st round he won't be seeing a 2nd contract until he's 28. It's just not a sound decision.

You guys are assuming his current draft status is fixed. He wasn't on the radar until he started playing this season. He's going to be one of those pre-draft "risers".
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The age is something that people aren’t considering. He’s the equivalent of a senior with him transferring. Teams may not be as inclined to draft a 5th year guy top 1-5 overall like people are suggesting he could get to if he comes back. He’d abuse teams next year and he should as a 5 star, #1 overall prospect in his 5th year.
 
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HighSeas said:
There's a time value to money. He turns 22 next spring before NFL rookie camps. He's physically and mentally ready for the NFL now. There are risks to playing another college season. Even if he returns and goes 1st round he won't be seeing a 2nd contract until he's 28. It's just not a sound decision.

You guys are assuming his current draft status is fixed. He wasn't on the radar until he started playing this season. He's going to be one of those pre-draft "risers".
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True, but teams have been picking up stars contracts well before players (Wentz, Elliott…) rookie deals are up. I completely understand what you and others are saying (and, I know you understand what I and others are saying) but the rule of any NFL contract is guaranteed money, guaranteed money, guaranteed money. Playing those first 3-4 years with “$15M extra” might be worth taking a chance on.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
True, but teams have been picking up stars contracts well before players (Wentz, Elliott…) rookie deals are up. I completely understand what you and others are saying (and, I know you understand what I and others are saying) but the rule of any NFL contract is guaranteed money, guaranteed money, guaranteed money. Playing those first 3-4 years with “$15M extra” might be worth taking a chance on.
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If on the fence why not put your name in the ole hat and then if you don't like where you are drafted you return? Or, am I wrong.

I was watching a game where a punter did just that. Prior to the 1992 draft I did just that...and I still haven't hired an agent.
 
CaneDawgCrew said:
If on the fence why not put your name in the ole hat and then if you don't like where you are drafted you return? Or, am I wrong.

I was watching a game where a punter did just that. Prior to the 1992 draft I did just that...and I still haven't hired an agent.
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If he wasn’t a punter, they’d have ruled against it. The NCAA corruption was highlighted in that case.
 
I can't help but think about the cut block he got from a running back on a roll out pass in the first couple of games. Might have been the end of his career right there. If I am thinking about it there is no doubt Phillips who had to limp away and then watch it on film over and over is thinking about it. Kid is gone. Thanks for giving us a year when our other first round DE would not.
 
Warrior808 said:
I think its the opposite. Because of his history with injuries and huge athletic upside he should consider taking out an insurance policy (which I believe schools are allowed to pay for) and work towards being a top 10 selection in the following draft. The difference in guaranteed money is in the tens of millions over the life the contract. 2nd and 3rd rounders dont get anything close to that amount guaranteed.

Just a different way of looking at it with the long game in mind. 16plus games a year plus pre-season and playoffs in the NFL = a much greater likelihood for carrier changing injuries than playing out one more year of college ball. Now carry that out over the length of a 4yr (or 5 if first rounder) rookie contract and I rather gamble on one more year of college. Returning to try and be a top 10 pick actually seems less risky than banking on a big second contract in the NFL.
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His risk of first year injury in the NFL isn’t mitigated by staying another year. He could get injured in college, in the nfl, or both if he stays.

If he’s a first rounder this draft, he doesn’t gain much upside to stay. He has more to lose than stay.

also.. wasn’t he having concussion issues? If that’s the case, he needs to go.
 
1mg of Epi said:
His risk of first year injury in the NFL isn’t mitigated by staying another year. He could get injured in college, in the nfl, or both if he stays.

If he’s a first rounder this draft, he doesn’t gain much upside to stay. He has more to lose than stay.

also.. wasn’t he having concussion issues? If that’s the case, he needs to go.
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He was and he's as good as gone. Him leaving is the surest bet of anyone on the roster.
 
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