- Jan 2, 2016
Canes 31-13. Five TD’s and four missed XP’s.
So, UVA by 21?Most books have it at -2 or -2.5.
The total has also been bet up from 42.5 to 45 at every shop I've seen.
So Vegas has it 23.5 to 21.5.
In a vacuum, this is probably the correct line. But this is a game Miami has traditionally lost. Season is basically over/on the brink at best, this program loves to string losses together in bunches, poor OL against a good DL and good, smart, disciplined kids....Miami's obvious athletic advantage that we won't take advantage of, etc.
One thing to monitor is on UVA's OL....their starting center has missed the past 2 games, and the backup got hurt against ODU and didn't play against ND. They had their 3rd string kid in there and it really hurt them. They had 4 rushing yards against ND and only averaged 4.69 YPP.
Expect a defensive game (obviously, by the 45 point total). UVA is in the 90s in offense and in the teens in defensive YPP. They also move very slowly and possess the ball a ton (11th in TOP). There will be a limited number of possessions in this game, so it's imperative Miami doesn't waste very many and at a minimum gets some first downs and flips field position.
Also Perkins has been much more careless with the ball this year. Last year he had a 2.6% INT rate. This year it's 3.6%. He's already thrown 6 picks this year. And his attempts per game are up, but his YPA is down and his rating is worse. He also averaged 71 rushing yards a game last year but only 32.8 this year. The loss of Zaccheaus has been big for him...that was his go-to guy last year and they've missed him a lot. Miami can get to him and force mistakes, which is imperative. UVA actually has a terrible turnover margin so far this year. They're prone to give it away and have only forced 5 turnovers.
Fu_ck whatever Vegas says the line is. Manny doesn't have this defense ready, OL will identify as a turnstile, Perry (much to my chagrin) starts, and Baxa misses two FG attempt and a point after. Virginia wins big.Hate myself sometimes
Canes 27 UVA 24
there is a missed xpa in there not a fg on our side.
Red zone offense (which includes kicking) and red zone defense has been the difference between 5-0 and 2-3. There's obviously other factors that go into a game, but IMO if Miami is just average in both those metrics, they're 5-0. That's been the difference between winning and losing.If we lose it will likely be cause of Charlie Brown.
I saw a stat the our losses in combined points were about the same as the number of points he’s left on the field.
So the only consistent thing has been that in tight games he loses the game for us.