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Is Miami Further Ahead In The State Than Ever?

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

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I've been doing a lot of thinking about this. I'm a bit of a football historian, and much more importantly, I'm a scholarly level ****-talker. So I like to know my facts, and then I like to use them to stomp our little brothers into the core of the Earth.

So I've been thinking. In modern history (let's go the last 45 years...back to 1980), is this the furthest ahead ANY of the Big 3 programs have been over BOTH of the other Little 2? To be clear, what I mean is, obviously over the past 45 years, we've all had our ups and downs. There are many instances of all 3 programs being good, and also 2 of the 3 being good while the other is down. But has there ever been a situation where 1 is THIS FAR ahead of BOTH of the other 2? Let's take a peek.

I did this as simply as I could, and it's not perfect (because it counts bowl games and I think bowl games are kinda meaningless, especially lately), but I think it tells a good story.

So let's run through history. Obviously in the 80's, Miami was incredible (3 National Championships), but FSU was also very good, especially in the late 80s. They won 11 games in 1987, and that started a run of 14 straight seasons where they won double-digit games (1987 through 2000). However, Miami was great in the late 80s and early 90s as well, and then in the mid 90s, Miami fell off, but the gator rose, winning a Natty in 1996, and having 12 seasons of their own where they won at least 9 games (1990 through 2001). So we can argue who was "best" until 2000, but either way, all 3 programs were close.

As the 2000s developed, the gator became the best program, but FSU still averaged 8.4 wins per season from 2001 to 2010. UiF averaged 9.8, and Miami was at 8.8. Since the gator won natties in 2006 and 2008, they were the best program during that timeframe, but again, Miami and FSU weren't overly awful. There was a gap, but it wasn't massive.

Into the 2010's, Jimbo's Noles became the best program in the state, winning a Natty in 2013, but again, the gap wasn't gigantic. From 2011 to 2020, FSU averaged 8.9 wins per year, the gator averaged 8.1, and Miami was at 7.6.

So again, ups and downs, but no matter what, over the past 45 years, if one team was great, another was at least decent. The gap between 1 & 2 was somewhat close, even if #3 was lagging behind.

Until now. I took 2 year totals for all 3 programs, and here's what I found:

FOR 2024 AND 2025, MIAMI WON 23 GAMES, WHILE FLORIDA AND FLORIDA STATE COMBINED TO WIN 19. That means, if you take Miami's wins, and subtract the combined wins of BOTH other schools, you get a total of +4.

IN THE LAST 45 YEARS, AT NO POINT DID ONE PROGRAM HAVE 4 OR MORE WINS THAN BOTH OF THE OTHER 2 SCHOOLS IN A 2 YEAR PERIOD. NEVER. NOT ONCE.

As a matter of fact, the only time one school even had more wins than the other 2 combined was 2013/2014, when FSU had 27 wins, and Miami/UiF combined for 26.

Here are the most "dominant" 2-year periods for all schools over the past 45 years:

1. Miami 2024/2025 23 wins, UiF/FSU 19 wins (4 game difference)
2. FSU 2013/2014 27 wins, UiF/Miami 26 wins (1 game difference)
3. FSU 2022/2023 23 wins, UiF/Miami 23 wins (0 game difference)
4. UiF 2018/2019 21 wins, Miami/FSU 24 wins (-3 game difference)

So there you have it, boys and girls. The gap has NEVER been wider. Ever. One school has never been better than BOTH of the other 2 at the same time like Miami has over the past 2 years.

Suck it, little brothers. You're in ******* ****. And you ain't getting out anytime soon.
 
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I have said for many years teams like FSU, UF and I will throw in VT were good when Miami was down. Once the playing field leveled out Miami has always been better and in some cases by a lot. To go even further, when the NCAA was allowing Bama, UGA, & Ohio State to cheat, Miami was always looking up. But now with the portal and NIL, Miami has played for the title and will be in contention for the title the next decade, IMO.
 
caneULM said:
I have said for many years teams like FSU, UF and I will throw in VT were good when Miami was down. Once the playing field leveled out Miami has always been better and in some cases by a lot. To go even further, when the NCAA was allowing Bama, UGA, & Ohio State to cheat, Miami was always looking up. But now with the portal and NIL, Miami has played for the title and will be in contention for the title the next decade, IMO.
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True, but nobody has ever been THIS much better 😉.

Ever.

I Used To Pray For Times Like This GIF
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
... I'm a scholarly level ****-talker.

So there you have it, boys and girls. The gap has NEVER been wider. Ever. One school has never been better than BOTH of the other 2 at the same time like Miami has over the past 2 years.

Suck it, little brothers. You're in ******* ****. And you ain't getting out anytime soon.
Click to expand...
Simon Pegg Wink GIF by Working Title
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I've been doing a lot of thinking about this. I'm a bit of a football historian, and much more importantly, I'm a scholarly level ****-talker. So I like to know my facts, and then I like to use them to stomp our little brothers into the core of the Earth.

So I've been thinking. In modern history (let's go the last 45 years...back to 1980), is this the furthest ahead ANY of the Big 3 programs have been over BOTH of the other Little 2? To be clear, what I mean is, obviously over the past 45 years, we've all had our ups and downs. There are many instances of all 3 programs being good, and also 2 of the 3 being good while the other is down. But has there ever been a situation where 1 is THIS FAR ahead of BOTH of the other 2? Let's take a peek.

I did this as simply as I could, and it's not perfect (because it counts bowl games and I think bowl games are kinda meaningless, especially lately), but I think it tells a good story.

So let's run through history. Obviously in the 80's, Miami was incredible (3 National Championships), but FSU was also very good, especially in the late 80s. They won 11 games in 1987, and that started a run of 14 straight seasons where they won double-digit games (1987 through 2000). However, Miami was great in the late 80s and early 90s as well, and then in the mid 90s, Miami fell off, but the gator rose, winning a Natty in 1996, and having 12 seasons of their own where they won at least 9 games (1990 through 2001). So we can argue who was "best" until 2000, but either way, all 3 programs were close.

As the 2000s developed, the gator became the best program, but FSU still averaged 8.4 wins per season from 2001 to 2010. UiF averaged 9.8, and Miami was at 8.8. Since the gator won natties in 2006 and 2008, they were the best program during that timeframe, but again, Miami and FSU weren't overly awful. There was a gap, but it wasn't massive.

Into the 2010's, Jimbo's Noles became the best program in the state, winning a Natty in 2013, but again, the gap wasn't gigantic. From 2011 to 2020, FSU averaged 8.9 wins per year, the gator averaged 8.1, and Miami was at 7.6.

So again, ups and downs, but no matter what, over the past 45 years, if one team was great, another was at least decent. The gap between 1 & 2 was somewhat close, even if #3 was lagging behind.

Until now. I took 2 year totals for all 3 programs, and here's what I found:

FOR 2024 AND 2025, MIAMI WON 23 GAMES, WHILE FLORIDA AND FLORIDA STATE COMBINED TO WIN 19. That means, if you take Miami's wins, and subtract the combined wins of BOTH other schools, you get a total of +4.

IN THE LAST 45 YEARS, AT NO POINT DID ONE PROGRAM HAVE 4 OR MORE WINS THAN BOTH OF THE OTHER 2 SCHOOLS IN A 2 YEAR PERIOD. NEVER. NOT ONCE.

As a matter of fact, the only time one school even had more wins than the other 2 combined was 2013/2014, when FSU had 27 wins, and Miami/UiF combined for 26.

Here are the most "dominant" 2-year periods for all schools over the past 45 years:

1. Miami 2024/2025 23 wins, UiF/FSU 19 wins (4 game difference)
2. FSU 2013/2014 27 wins, UiF/Miami 26 wins (1 game difference)
3. FSU 2022/2023 23 wins, UiF/Miami 23 wins (0 game difference)
4. UiF 2018/2019 21 wins, Miami/FSU 24 wins (-3 game difference)

So there you have it, boys and girls. The gap has NEVER been wider. Ever. One school has never been better than BOTH of the other 2 at the same time like Miami has over the past 2 years.

Suck it, little brothers. You're in ******* ****. And you ain't getting out anytime soon.
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*little sisters
 
I honestly don’t think there’s any question.
They can clown around on social media and call us little brother, they’re our daddy, etc., but in their hearts, they know.
I think they’re in a very precarious situation right now cause as I mentioned in another thread a while ago, if Miami has another season like last season, we could be set up for a significant run for a while.
People can say what they will but when you consider just a few years ago, we were being compared to USF and UCF and now we are light years ahead of Florida and FSU.
I think FSU has some serious problems not that that’s earth shattering news to anyone, but unless a donor comes out of the woodwork and starts putting some major cash into that program, they’re in trouble.
 
QuattroCane said:
I honestly don’t think there’s any question.
They can clown around on social media and call us little brother, they’re our daddy, etc., but in their hearts, they know.
I think they’re in a very precarious situation right now cause as I mentioned in another thread a while ago, if Miami has another season like last season, we could be set up for a significant run for a while.
People can say what they will but when you consider just a few years ago, we were being compared to USF and UCF and now we are light years ahead of Florida and FSU.
I think FSU has some serious problems not that that’s earth shattering news to anyone, but unless a donor comes out of the woodwork and starts putting some major cash into that program, they’re in trouble.
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Anything less than a Rupert Murdoch type donor won't help them much, which makes me quite pleased.
 
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We are light-years ahead of them.

I do want to note it is quite odd considering those two programs combined for 9 total wins; yet they beat two of the best 15 teams in the nation in Alabama and Texas.

I bring that up because if we are getting to the facts, that fact muddies the mirror. Those wins give them some esoteric life support despite their flatlining force. That’s very hard to quantify though.

It is something to look out for altogether though. It’s hard for any of the big 3 to go into a recruiting recession; even if the classes are putrid because of poor evaluations — they’ll likely still be top 25 classes for them.

No debate whatsoever with your original point that this has been the most dominant two year stretch compared with the other 2 in the big 3 era. It’s even better considering the Lagway crash and burn as well as FSU’s attempt to abort the ACC only to become a national laughing stock in the years following their undefeated regular season.

I’d have to concede the 06, 07, 08 years for UF has the most dominant three year stretch. Likewise, FSU’s 2012, 2013, 2014 would be second based on where UF and Miami were during those seasons.

FSU: 39 wins & 3 losses; one natty from ‘12 to ‘14. Expand this to ‘15 and FSU had 49 wins and 6 losses. UF: 35 wins & 6 losses; two nattys from ‘06 to ‘08. If we extend this run to ‘09–UF tallied 48 wins w/ 7 losses in that timespan.
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During (39-3 / 49-6) Jimbo’s run: 3-1 against UF; 4-0 against Miami. Miami was 22-16 & 30-21 during the 3 & 4 years spans. Golden fired in 2015. UF was 22-15 & 32-19 during the 3 & 4 years spans. Muschamp fired at the end of 2014.
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During (35-6 / 48-7) Urban’s run: 4-0 against FSU; 1-0 against UF. Miami went 19-19 & 28-23 in the 3 & 4 year lifespans. Coker fired after ‘06 and Randy hired. FSU went 23-16 and 30-22 during those 3 & 4 year lifespans. Bobby Bowden retired after 09. Jimbo hired.
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Do i believe we can win it all and jump over those two 3 to 4 year stretches? Absolutely. Indubitably. No rap cap.

What’s notable in both these stretches is the very recent coaching changes at the down 2 of the big 3 during or bordering all of them. For us with UF’s run, we would change coaches twice.

we already beat UF & FSU twice so we need to beat FSU these next two years to supersede them. And ofc, win a natty.

There’s basically no history (someone prove me wrong if an example exists) of a guy losing as much as Norvell has, so deep in his tenure, turning things around. So odds are FSU will get a new coach soon.

Then, for UF, it’s wait and see. Muschamp, McElwain, and Mullen all had success in their first two seasons—18, 19, and 21 wins respectively. Napier is the first scrub to break that mark. ****, even Ron Zook won 16 comparatively to Napier’s 11 w/ 2 different future NFL quarterbacks.
 
Last season, yes we were. We aren't that much ahead of UF in recruitng right now. Let them have a average season and see if they are willing to keep spending like they are this off season. I am not sure what you all are hearing or thinking of their recruiting, but they are killing it. They are expected to have a Top 10 class. I am one of the few who evidently broke down their roster because I see a much better team than our fan base is giving them credit for. I already predicted they can win 8 games when lines were at 6.5. Now they have shifted to 7.5 - 9 wins.
In saying this, I am old enough to know they are our real #1 rival until I am in the dirt. Miami played UF for 20 years before their was ever a FSU/UF game.
 
cookies said:
We are light-years ahead of them.

I do want to note it is quite odd considering those two programs combined for 9 total wins; yet they beat two of the best 15 teams in the nation in Alabama and Texas.

I bring that up because if we are getting to the facts, that fact muddies the mirror. Those wins give them some esoteric life support despite their flatlining force. That’s very hard to quantify though.

It is something to look out for altogether though. It’s hard for any of the big 3 to go into a recruiting recession; even if the classes are putrid because of poor evaluations — they’ll likely still be top 25 classes for them.

No debate whatsoever with your original point that this has been the most dominant two year stretch compared with the other 2 in the big 3 era. It’s even better considering the Lagway crash and burn as well as FSU’s attempt to abort the ACC only to become a national laughing stock in the years following their undefeated regular season.

I’d have to concede the 06, 07, 08 years for UF has the most dominant three year stretch. Likewise, FSU’s 2012, 2013, 2014 would be second based on where UF and Miami were during those seasons.






Do i believe we can win it all and jump over those two 3 to 4 year stretches? Absolutely. Indubitably. No rap cap.

What’s notable in both these stretches is the very recent coaching changes at the down 2 of the big 3 during or bordering all of them. For us with UF’s run, we would change coaches twice.

we already beat UF & FSU twice so we need to beat FSU these next two years to supersede them. And ofc, win a natty.

There’s basically no history (someone prove me wrong if an example exists) of a guy losing as much as Norvell has, so deep in his tenure, turning things around. So odds are FSU will get a new coach soon.

Then, for UF, it’s wait and see. Muschamp, McElwain, and Mullen all had success in their first two seasons—18, 19, and 21 wins respectively. Napier is the first scrub to break that mark. ****, even Ron Zook won 16 comparatively to Napier’s 11 w/ 2 different future NFL quarterbacks.
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If you want to look at 3-year stretches in the same manner I did it in my OP, here are the best 3 year stretches by total wins vs the other 2 since 1980:

1. FSU 2012/2013/2014 was -5 wins compared to Miami/UF in 2012/2013/2014
2. UF 2018/2019/2020 was -6 wins compared to Miami/FSU in 2018/2019/2020
3. Miami 2023/2024/2025 was -7 wins compared to UF/FSU in 2023/2024/2025

There were also 2 other instances of a team being -7 wins....FSU 2013 to 2015, and Florida in 2006 to 2008. As you'd expect, both those teams won natties in those windows.

So Miami is in the midst of the best 2-year run ever, and tied for the 3rd best 3-year run ever. If we win 10+ games again this year, I'm confident it'll be the best 3-year run EVER.
 
Cane30 said:
Last season, yes we were. We aren't that much ahead of UF in recruitng right now. Let them have a average season and see if they are willing to keep spending like they are this off season. I am not sure what you all are hearing or thinking of their recruiting, but they are killing it. They are expected to have a Top 10 class. I am one of the few who evidently broke down their roster because I see a much better team than our fan base is giving them credit for. I already predicted they can win 8 games when lines were at 6.5. Now they have shifted to 7.5 - 9 wins.
In saying this, I am old enough to know they are our real #1 rival until I am in the dirt. Miami played UF for 20 years before their was ever a FSU/UF game.
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What I posted has absolutely nothing to do with this, although I agree with a good bit of it. They are spending and they probably will get a top 10 class. But again, I don’t give a ****. We won more games last year than they have in the last 2 seasons combined.
 
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Cane30 said:
Last season, yes we were. We aren't that much ahead of UF in recruitng right now. Let them have a average season and see if they are willing to keep spending like they are this off season. I am not sure what you all are hearing or thinking of their recruiting, but they are killing it. They are expected to have a Top 10 class. I am one of the few who evidently broke down their roster because I see a much better team than our fan base is giving them credit for. I already predicted they can win 8 games when lines were at 6.5. Now they have shifted to 7.5 - 9 wins.
In saying this, I am old enough to know they are our real #1 rival until I am in the dirt. Miami played UF for 20 years before their was ever a FSU/UF game.
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This isn’t nothing, but this doesn’t mean much. Us ‘Canes above all else should know this. Took 8 miami northwestern players in 08 and the best one, Lavonte David, announced his retirement from professional football three weeks ago.

Our 2025 class is already shaping up to be much better than our 2023 class despite it being double the ranking i.e. 15th versus 7th, w/ 6 less players, and far more unknowns & unfinished products in ‘25. We took 3 top 200 WRs in 2024 and they are all gone because the 3 non-top 200 WRs, except Josh Moore who was, we took in 2025 out hustled them outta their jobs.

RJ McIntosh and Kendrick Norton were better college players than Leonard Taylor and Nesta Silvera; or at least equivalent despite the rankings gap. Anthony Moten was rated higher than his brother. Feliciano played in the league for a decade. David Njoku was a real sleeper; who was ranked lower than his younger brother Evidence. Greg Rousseau and Patrick Joyner were ranked the same. Zal’tonae Hillery is the worst 4* I’ve ever seen in my life.

These aren’t the exceptions. We are a premier brand, as are UF and FSU. They will get good players and some of them will be ranked as top 300 players. Our 2020 and 2021 classes were ranked 18th and 12th. They weren’t that good; especially the 2020 class. The 2018 class was ranked 10th and it wasn’t up to snuff either. Nesta and Jordan Miller, both in that class, have had similar NFL careers and are practice squad players.

I could go on and on. This isn’t unique to Miami either, or the fault of the recruiting rankings.

Strong Identification, Evaluation, Acquisition and Development are very hard to sustain. Jimbo struggled after he had success, both at FSU and A&M, despite highly rated classes.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
If you want to look at 3-year stretches in the same manner I did it in my OP, here are the best 3 year stretches by total wins vs the other 2 since 1980:

1. FSU 2012/2013/2014 was -5 wins compared to Miami/UF in 2012/2013/2014
2. UF 2018/2019/2020 was -6 wins compared to Miami/FSU in 2018/2019/2020
3. Miami 2023/2024/2025 was -7 wins compared to UF/FSU in 2023/2024/2025

There were also 2 other instances of a team being -7 wins....FSU 2013 to 2015, and Florida in 2006 to 2008. As you'd expect, both those teams won natties in those windows.

So Miami is in the midst of the best 2-year run ever, and tied for the 3rd best 3-year run ever. If we win 10+ games again this year, I'm confident it'll be the best 3-year run EVER.
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:fistbump:
 
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