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Iowa plans on opening athletic practices - including football - June 1

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Number1CanesFan said:
IMO, very foolish. I'm from Iowa and I have family members there. Just turn to any channel and see all the outbreaks in all the plants there. I know from family members that work there. Iowa has over 7,000 cases and I can tell you they're barely testing the population. The state has 3 million people. Florida has nearly 22 million. So, that's like Iowa having over 50,000 cases and nearly a 50% higher rate than Florida. Their rate of infection is moving to the top 5 in the nation. At 50,000 cases factoring Iowa's population to Florida's population of 22 million, Iowa would equal California's(49,840) who has a population of 40 million. I believe Iowa hasn't even hit its peak.

My sister said very few people took it serious. Very few were wearing masks just 2 weeks ago thinking it wasn't going to hit them as bad since they were fine while the Coasts were suffering. She wore a mask very early on as she has immune deficiencies. She's cussed out many a people for getting too close to her not social distancing.

With that said, I believe a lot of people are in this false sense that the outbreak is over because of some arbitrary date on the calendar. We still have very little testing and NO state has passed the President's guideline of 14 days of consecutive decreases. I fear things are going to get worse as we see people returning to normal activities herding together unprotected.
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You're basing your argument on infection rate?

Infection rate is a useless metric.

What matters is the number of critical cases.

How many critical cases does Iowa have?

In 1968, one in every 2,000 people in the US DIED from the HK H3N2 flu. There was no vaccine. There was no lockdown.

You're still in panic mode after two months of data has proven that the mortality rate of the wuhanbatflu is 1/1000th of what the models projected?

I really hope you don't vote.
 
Great idea until the first positive case on the team/coaching staff etc. and then it all gets shut down. College football isn't happening this season. Optics optics optics.
 
KrazyCane said:
All you have to do is turn on your critical thinking skills and use an ounce of logic to see that It’s true.
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What are you talking about? There is literally 0 data thats supports that number. The most aggressive estimates I’ve seen put it at about 3%.

And wouldn’t this solidify the need for viral and antibody tests to validate your point or are you cool with just rolling the dice?
 
423Hurricane said:
My condolences and deepest sympathy to you and your friends Rell. When this hits close to home, chit gets real. My take is we gotta start somewhere with a common sense and measured approach. Setting a target and seeing if can be hit may be an incentive for all concerned to do the right things to insure it can happen. We've got a month or so to watch closely and see how it all shakes out. If they need to drop back and punt, hopefully they'll do just that.
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Thanks bro, and I totally agree w this. We can’t let this chit run our lives, but we gotta take measured steps.

I desperately want things to get back to normal, but I also want all of us to be smart about it, and think about tomorrow, and not just today. I know they are working hard on procedures & vaccinations, and also read Oxford University seems to be making great progress on a vaccine as we speak.
 
Number1CanesFan wrote:

IMO, very foolish. I'm from Iowa and I have family members there. Just turn to any channel and see all the outbreaks in all the plants there. I know from family members that work there. Iowa has over 7,000 cases and I can tell you they're barely testing the population. The state has 3 million people. Florida has nearly 22 million. So, that's like Iowa having over 50,000 cases and nearly a 50% higher rate than Florida. Their rate of infection is moving to the top 5 in the nation. At 50,000 cases factoring Iowa's population to Florida's population of 22 million, Iowa would equal California's(49,840) who has a population of 40 million. I believe Iowa hasn't even hit its peak.

My sister said very few people took it serious. Very few were wearing masks just 2 weeks ago thinking it wasn't going to hit them as bad since they were fine while the Coasts were suffering. She wore a mask very early on as she has immune deficiencies. She's cussed out many a people for getting too close to her not social distancing.

With that said, I believe a lot of people are in this false sense that the outbreak is over because of some arbitrary date on the calendar. We still have very little testing and NO state has passed the President's guideline of 14 days of consecutive decreases. I fear things are going to get worse as we see people returning to normal activities herding together unprotected.
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Actually, Iowa probably has over 100k cases because antibody testing conservatively shows about 15x as many people had/have it than have gotten a positive test. Of those 100kish that have/had it in Iowa, about 50%ish have/had no symptoms. Another 47-48% have/had mild to moderate symptoms and didn't seek hospitalization. About 2-3% have/had cases requiring hospitalization. Of the 2-3% with severe cases, almost all (not all, but almost all statistically) are people like your sister with immune deficiencies and the elderly (disproportionately in nursing homes).
 
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SPAMM said:
You mean Iowa with the single, largest concentrated site in t he country which has resulted in the closure of 10% of the meat supply at that and other plants?
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Valid point. Obviously, the close proximity of the workers to each other was a contributing factor to the spread being so concentrated and widespread. Thus the shutdown. My understanding is they are working on mitigation to reduce the close proximity of the workers and doing extensive cleaning before re-opening the plant.
 
tcgrad1014 said:
Great idea until the first positive case on the team/coaching staff etc. and then it all gets shut down. College football isn't happening this season. Optics optics optics.
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If they decide to start the season one case won't shut it down. You cant enter into something thinking things are gonna go perfectly and just as you planned. They're gonna have to accept someone might get it and they'll get isolated and anyone they passed it to gets isolated too. There is no other way to do it if they decide to start.
 
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Rellyrell said:
Thanks bro, and I totally agree w this. We can’t let this chit run our lives, but we gotta take measured steps.

I desperately want things to get back to normal, but I also want all of us to be smart about it, and think about tomorrow, and not just today. I know they are working hard on procedures & vaccinations, and also read Oxford University seems to be making great progress on a vaccine as we speak.
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It's encouraging and inspiring to see how much is going on - many companies, scientists, and others are all over it trying to come up with therapeutics and vaccines.
 
tcgrad1014 said:
Numer1CanesFan wrote:

IMO, very foolish. I'm from Iowa and I have family members there. Just turn to any channel and see all the outbreaks in all the plants there. I know from family members that work there. Iowa has over 7,000 cases and I can tell you they're barely testing the population. The state has 3 million people. Florida has nearly 22 million. So, that's like Iowa having over 50,000 cases and nearly a 50% higher rate than Florida. Their rate of infection is moving to the top 5 in the nation. At 50,000 cases factoring Iowa's population to Florida's population of 22 million, Iowa would equal California's(49,840) who has a population of 40 million. I believe Iowa hasn't even hit its peak.

My sister said very few people took it serious. Very few were wearing masks just 2 weeks ago thinking it wasn't going to hit them as bad since they were fine while the Coasts were suffering. She wore a mask very early on as she has immune deficiencies. She's cussed out many a people for getting too close to her not social distancing.

With that said, I believe a lot of people are in this false sense that the outbreak is over because of some arbitrary date on the calendar. We still have very little testing and NO state has passed the President's guideline of 14 days of consecutive decreases. I fear things are going to get worse as we see people returning to normal activities herding together unprotected.
Click to expand...

Actually, Iowa probably has over 100k cases because antibody testing conservatively shows about 15x as many people had/have it than have gotten a positive test. Of those 100kish that have/had it in Iowa, about 50%ish have/had no symptoms. Another 47-48% have/had mild to moderate symptoms and didn't seek hospitalization. About 2-3% have/had cases requiring hospitalization. Of the 2-3% with severe cases, almost all (not all, but almost all statistically) are people like your sister with immune deficiencies and the elderly (disproportionately in nursing homes).
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Genuinely curious where you are getting these antibody testing numbers?
 
Fawk_U Haters said:
Rell this isn't as bad as the flu and it's just being hyped up. stop being a chicken little rell.....(all of this is sarcasm)
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I think we’ll make progress. Problem is, we tried to dumb it down, to stop panic. If we took more serious, like in 2019 when reports started to show this new strain was different, then we would be way ahead by now.
 
CaneinAustin said:
Actually, Iowa probably has over 100k cases because antibody testing conservatively shows about 15x as many people had/have it than have gotten a positive test. Of those 100kish that have/had it in Iowa, about 50%ish have/had no symptoms. Another 47-48% have/had mild to moderate symptoms and didn't seek hospitalization. About 2-3% have/had cases requiring hospitalization. Of the 2-3% with severe cases, almost all (not all, but almost all statistically) are people like your sister with immune deficiencies and the elderly (disproportionately in nursing homes).
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Genuinely curious where you are getting these antibody testing numbers?
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There have been lots of them already. You can Google the LA study, University of Miami study, Delaware **** study, France high school study. There was one in Germany. The Santa Clara Stanford study has been criticized as an outlier, and that one indicated an even bigger spread of the virus.
 
fincane said:
If they decide to start the season one case won't shut it down. You cant enter into something thinking things are gonna go perfectly and just as you planned. They're gonna have to accept someone might get it and they'll get isolated and anyone they passed it to gets isolated too. There is no other way to do it if they decide to start.
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I think this applies to opening the entire country. The problem is that the goal posts have shifted to the point that our government minders no longer find it acceptable that anyone contract C19. Fauci used the term "guaranteed safe" when discussing when sports can resume.
 
tcgrad1014 said:
Genuinely curious where you are getting these antibody testing numbers?
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There have been lots of them already. You can Google the LA study, University of Miami study, Delaware **** study, France high school study. There was one in Germany. The Santa Clara Stanford study has been criticized as an outlier, and that one indicated an even bigger spread of the virus.
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Sure - those tests are encouraging, but the sample size is not necessarily representative.

Don’t you think there should be a national coordinated antibody testing effort to confirm?
 
CaneinAustin said:
There have been lots of them already. You can Google the LA study, University of Miami study, Delaware **** study, France high school study. There was one in Germany. The Santa Clara Stanford study has been criticized as an outlier, and that one indicated an even bigger spread of the virus.
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Sure - those tests are encouraging, but the sample size is not necessarily representative.

Don’t you think there should be a national coordinated antibody testing effort to confirm?
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I think that would be great. In the meantime, there has been a lot of consistency in the findings of the various small scale studies. 15x seems to be a reasonably conservative estimate.
 
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tcgrad1014 said:
Sure - those tests are encouraging, but the sample size is not necessarily representative.

Don’t you think there should be a national coordinated antibody testing effort to confirm?
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I think that would be great. In the meantime, there has been a lot of consistency in the findings of the various small scale studies. 15x seems to be a reasonably conservative estimate.
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Not enough to leverage everything on.
 
CaneinAustin said:
I think that would be great. In the meantime, there has been a lot of consistency in the findings of the various small scale studies. 15x seems to be a reasonably conservative estimate.
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Not enough to leverage everything on.
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What are we leveraging? Whether we can leave our houses? Also, I forgot about the Diamond Princess testing and the other naval vessels tested with outbreaks. All these studies are pretty much spitting out the same data.
 
Basing this on the Miami study, below is a possible best case scenario:

Miami-Dade Cases: 100,000
Miami-Dade Deaths: 302 (there is also much debate about fatality number being under reported but will go with the official number)
Mortality Rate: 0.3%
US Population: 328,200,000
Percentage of Infection To Reach Herd Immunity: 70%
Total Estimated Deaths: 689,220
 
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