CJ Carr is the best quarterback we've seen this year, and it isn't close. That was David Lake's first point when we went into deep water on Thursday, and the numbers back him up.

Without Malachi Toney, Saturday is going to come down to whether our defense can do something it hasn't done in a month: make a veteran quarterback uncomfortable.

Who CJ Carr is​

• He's protecting the ball and grading out elite. Eighteen touchdown passes, one interception, 66.7 % completions, three rushing touchdowns and an 87.7 PFF passing grade. And he's doing it without great weapons. Put him with a deeper receiver room and the numbers go up.
• Lake has him top five in college football. Trinidad Chambliss probably has a higher ceiling, but Carr has the higher floor.
• The NFL likes him too. Respected draft sources have Drew Mestemaker as the top quarterback, Carr second and Mensah somewhere later in the first round.
• Think Brock Purdy. He does all the quarterback stuff at a high level: accuracy, anticipation, pre-snap and post-snap. He isn't a physical freak like LaNorris Sellers. His superpower is quickness in the pocket, and that's what killed us at the Rock last year.
• Watch his eyes before the snap. On the TV copy, every time the camera zooms in, his eyes are going back and forth, scanning the defense. He knows what he wants to do before the ball is snapped. Lake's twist is that a coordinator can use that against him.

Where he throws it​

• Short or deep, almost nothing in between. Carr is ninth in FBS in short attempts (0–9 air yards) and fourth in deep attempts. He throws deep more often than he throws into the intermediate window. With these receivers, that's surprising.
• The deep ball comes out fast. He isn't extending plays and launching. He knows his guy is running a 9 or a post, and he lets it go. A lot of those shots come on first down.
• Not much behind the line. Notre Dame throws only about two to two and a half passes behind the line of scrimmage per game. After what UNC did to us on the perimeter, the question is whether Mike Denbrock dials that number up to test our tackling, or sticks to who they are.
• First down is the danger. Bobby Petrino exposed us on first down at UNC. Teams don't run on first down against the No. 1 run defense in the country, so they throw. Corey Hetherman has seen that tape, and he has to adjust.

Coverage: why Cover 3 is the answer​

• Cover 3 is where he's least efficient. That's all relative with a quarterback this good, but Cover 3 forces him to work the short area and the intermediate window he avoids. It's also what Hetherman calls most.
• Cover 1 is where he hurts you. Man-free is where he throws his touchdowns. He knows exactly where to go with the ball.
• Cover 2 doesn't work either. Teams play a lot of it against him to take away the deep shots, and he still completes 71 percent at 9.6 yards per attempt against it. His only interception came against Cover 2. On top of that, Notre Dame runs the ball well, which makes two-high a bad bet unless the down and distance demand it.

You can't sack him​

• He's been sacked twice all year. His pressure-to-sack rate is 4.3 percent, the third lowest in the country. On the two sacks he has taken, he'd held the ball well over four seconds. That tells you he gets pressured, slips out and keeps hunting.
• The protection is elite too. Notre Dame allows the fifth-lowest pressure rate in FBS. So it isn't just Carr's quickness. He sets his protections so well that you can't get to him in the first place.
• He's elite against the blitz. So is Mensah. But Lake estimates Notre Dame blitzes around 25 percent of the time, and we're around 35. Quarterbacks have burned our blitz more than Hetherman would like in recent weeks.
• Expect designed runs. In games Notre Dame has to have, Carr's carries go up, like the second half against BYU. He had 11 rushing attempts against us last year, still his career high. Lake wouldn't be surprised by seven to 11 again.

That last stat is the one that worries me most. Take Carr's pocket mobility out of last year's game and we win in a blowout. Carr's legs were the reason it was close.

The game plan​

Here's Lake's blueprint, built off the data:

• Blitz at your own risk. Rush four. Let a D-line full of NFL players go win. You still have to blitz sometimes, but the rate should come down this week.
• Make him throw intermediate. It's the window he avoids, so live in Cover 3 and make him work it.
• Disguise. Show one thing pre-snap and rotate post-snap. You can't do it every play, but in critical situations, can you get a smart quarterback to make an uncharacteristic decision?
• Keep him in the pocket. He's slippery outside it, so rush with integrity and take away his escape lanes.
• Win up front. This is Giants vs. Patriots in the Super Bowl. Carr isn't Tom Brady, but the formula is the same: pressure with four.

Lake's read on the matchup is that Notre Dame's right guard is the weak spot in pass protection. That's who you attack.

Personnel​

• The D-line has to carry this game. The instruction is simple: go get the quarterback. Wilson has been a little quiet lately in pressures, and this is his week. Remember last year: Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor won that game. And against Indiana, a well-coached line a lot like Notre Dame's, Moten and Justin Scott wrecked the guards. If we get that kind of interior push, the numbers go out the window.
• Put Bryce Fitzgerald at free safety. We've given up too many deep shots against Clemson, FSU and Pitt, then too much short stuff against UNC. Lake's fix: let Fitzgerald be a center fielder who makes quarterbacks think twice about pushing it deep. And if they do, he's the guy who makes them pay. This defense needs more takeaways anyway.
• Move Zechariah Poyser to nickel. Geoff Collins told us he'd want a bigger, more physical nickel against all of Notre Dame's 12 personnel. Omar Thornton fits that, but if he's in there, you aren't blitzing him, and blitzing is his best trait. Poyser is just as physical, he did it a lot at Jacksonville State, and he's been one of our most consistent players. His problem has been angles, not toughness. Lake is also intrigued by JJ Dunnigan's body type as a big nickel.
• The linebackers might actually like this one. Notre Dame doesn't have a dangerous receiving tight end this year. It uses tight ends to run the ball. That's a better matchup for Mohamed Toure and Chase Smith than chasing an elite tight end in space. Lake would also get Ezekiel Marcelin Jr. more snaps for his range.
• Fix the perimeter. The short stuff is the easy fix: block destruction from the corners, better pursuit angles from the safeties and effort. If we don't clean that up, don't bother showing up in South Bend.

Where it lands​

The numbers say Carr is elite, protected and hard to rattle. They also say he has a weak spot, and we're built to attack it with our base coverage and a front that, on paper, is better than anything Notre Dame has faced.

Lake still has us winning, 27-24. Without Toney, it's going to take the defense winning this one.

Lake breaks it all down every Thursday on the CanesInsight YouTube channel, plus the full show with our red-zone talk, carry targets and his Notre Dame scouting report. Subscribe and turn on notifications for Saturday.

 

 

Some very good stuff in there supported by watching the games. Some stuff I find a bit misleading or needs context.

For example, I wouldn't characterize him as "short or long and nothing in between":

He's thrown deep and intermediate at relatively similar volume. I think I saw one source say 30-something attempts more than 20 yards and almost 30 attempts 10-19 yards. So, yes, more deep than "intermediate," but not by a ton. Basically, the real conclusion I see is he keeps it short of 10. But, from actual game watches instead of raw numbers he throws in that 6-8 range very often. I showed a number of plays in screenshots in the full ND breakdown. I also repeatedly mentioned they love taking what's given. Teams play off and they simply take it.

He's also been almost plainly inaccurate downfield in the last couple games I watched. Against BYU, he missed a bunch of throws. One "easy" TD to Faison on a seam route. Against Navy, I watched him hesitate to pull the trigger a handful of times.

The more important point, I think, is Carr likes to get the ball out very quickly, regardless of depth of target. What I did mention in the full play breakdown is that he's also shown the ability to get the ball into the intermediate range to Greathouse and Faison. There are clearcut instances of Faison running effective digs (vs Wisconsin) and Greathouse in the intermediate on critical down and distance (vs BYU). In other words, they're capable, but they've previously chosen to not hammer that range (probably because it's riskier and the pictures are less clear).

Again, their route trees and Carr's decisions are highly calculated risk-taking. Doesn't mean those windows are as risky against us, as we've shown specific vulnerability there.

 

What gives me some encouragement is NDs OTs have not faced DEs as good as ours.
Carr also has not been hit as hard as he will get hit tomorrow.

Another observation is even though he is not short he seems to play short. Meaning I have seen his passes get tipped and batted down. That can be crucial in a game like this.

 

Some very good stuff in there supported by watching the games. Some stuff I find a bit misleading or needs context.

For example, I wouldn't characterize him as "short or long and nothing in between":

He's thrown deep and intermediate at relatively similar volume. I think I saw one source say 30-something attempts more than 20 yards and almost 30 attempts 10-19 yards. So, yes, more deep than "intermediate," but not by a ton. Basically, the real conclusion I see is he keeps it short of 10. But, from actual game watches instead of raw numbers he throws in that 6-8 range very often. I showed a number of plays in screenshots in the full ND breakdown. I also repeatedly mentioned they love taking what's given. Teams play off and they simply take it.

He's also been almost plainly inaccurate downfield in the last couple games I watched. Against BYU, he missed a bunch of throws. One "easy" TD to Faison on a seam route. Against Navy, I watched him hesitate to pull the trigger a handful of times.

The more important point, I think, is Carr likes to get the ball out very quickly, regardless of depth of target. What I did mention in the full play breakdown is that he's also shown the ability to get the ball into the intermediate range to Greathouse and Faison. There are clearcut instances of Faison running effective digs (vs Wisconsin) and Greathouse in the intermediate on critical down and distance (vs BYU). In other words, they're capable, but they've previously chosen to not hammer that range (probably because it's riskier and the pictures are less clear).

Again, their route trees and Carr's decisions are highly calculated risk-taking. Doesn't mean those windows are as risky against us, as we've shown specific vulnerability there.

In the games Ive watched Ive seen him miss throws down field a bunch. I just dont think he is as good as many are making him out to be. He is competent and has full control of the offense but I dont think he is that good. What scares me the most is his high IQ and legs. Its not that he is crazy athletic but he has a great feel for the game and we all know a mobile QB can kill us.

 

In the games Ive watched Ive seen him miss throws down field a bunch. I just dont think he is as good as many are making him out to be. He is competent and has full control of the offense but I dont think he is that good. What scares me the most is his high IQ and legs. Its not that he is crazy athletic but he has a great feel for the game and we all know a mobile QB can kill us.

Here's a play I expect whenever they absolutely need something:

https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/notre-dame-on-field-breakdown-thread.212432/post-8585179

It's almost like Mark Richt's Malik Rosier tick. When in doubt and need a better down and distance or score...

They also have shown about 3-4 other ticks/tendencies.

 

Hit him in the mouth & take away his check downs. Dudes trash.

 

Definitely getting the ball out quick, so our pass rush & pressure may not be effective. If so, hopefully we pull back on the blitz. Maybe still engrained in head from last year’s game, but need to be aware of him using his legs.