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How many commits by Monday morning

How many commits by monday Morning

  • 1

    Votes: 65 19.8%

  • 2

    Votes: 101 30.7%

  • 3

    Votes: 86 26.1%

  • 4

    Votes: 25 7.6%

  • EVERYONE

    Votes: 52 15.8%
  • Total voters
    329
  • Poll closed .
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No_Fly_Zone said:
What statistical analysis led you to that conclusion?
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I’m not going to break down the math.

But if you go buy a scratch off lottery ticket, it is much more probable that it will not be a winner than it is for you to win a free ticket, $5, $10, or $20. It’s kind of the same principle.

But I guess I’m still waiting for the commitments from Elite Prospect Day or the Spring Game.

With the available options, I expect 1 commitment, if we get more I’ll be ecstatic. But if you go in to it expecting more, you are setting yourself up for a let down.
 
Jaxson Villain said:
I’m not going to break down the math.

But if you go buy a scratch off lottery ticket, it is much more probable that it will not be a winner than it is for you to win a free ticket, $5, $10, or $20. It’s kind of the same principle.

But I guess I’m still waiting for the commitments from Elite Prospect Day or the Spring Game.

With the available options, I expect 1 commitment, if we get more I’ll be ecstatic. But if you go in to it expecting more, you are setting yourself up for a let down.
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So no math. And your analysis of our odds of pulling in recruits this weekend and coming to the conclusion that 0 commits is the "most probable" result is based on the odds of winning a scratch off lottery ticket (an event intentionally designed so that a losing ticket is the most likely outcome) and the fact nobody committed after the Spring Game (in April, before most recruits took official visits) or Elite Prospect Day (back in January... before any of these recruits had taken a single OV), while seemingly ignoring or giving de minimis value to the fact we just had 2 recruits commit through last weekend into Monday, another recruit commit about a week before that, and the fact this is Legends Weekend? Fair enough, I guess...

Look, if it is your honest opinion that nobody is committing this weekend, that's fine. But please don't try to nonchalantly claim this is some sort of probable outcome based on anything other than what you warned about in your last sentence... you trying your best not to set yourself up for a let down.
 
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No_Fly_Zone said:
So no math. And your analysis of our odds of pulling in recruits this weekend and coming to the conclusion that 0 commits is the "most probable" result is based on the odds of winning a scratch off lottery ticket (an event intentionally designed so that a losing ticket is the most likely outcome) and the fact nobody committed after the Spring Game (in April, before most recruits took official visits) or Elite Prospect Day (back in January... before any of these recruits had taken a single OV), while seemingly ignoring or giving de minimis value to the fact we just had 2 recruits commit through last weekend into Monday, another recruit commit about a week before that, and the fact this is Legends Weekend? Fair enough, I guess...

Look, if it is your honest opinion that nobody is committing this weekend, that's fine. But please don't try to nonchalantly claim this is some sort of probable outcome based on anything other than what you warned about in your last sentence... you trying your best not to set yourself up for a let down.
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Ok fine.

There are 365 days in a year. To fluff the numbers in your favor, let’s say we end up with a HUGE class of 35 commitments this year.

Even if, hypothetically, each one of those guys committed on a different day. That leaves 330 days in the year with no commitments.

Essentially, on any given day there is a less than 10% chance one of those 35 commits will pop.

Meaning there’s a 90% chance that, any given day, no one will commit.

So without factoring in the fact that there is a big event this weekend, which I wouldn’t know how to quantify in to probability, the most likely amount of commitments on any given day is 0, followed by 1, than 2, and so on.

Receiving 0 commitments on any given day is the most probable outcome, the probability drops significantly for 1, and becomes even more unlikely at 2 and 3 and 4.


Is that a satisfactory enough rough explanation?
 
Jaxson Villain said:
Ok fine.

There are 365 days in a year. To fluff the numbers in your favor, let’s say we end up with a HUGE class of 35 commitments this year.

Even if, hypothetically, each one of those guys committed on a different day. That leaves 330 days in the year with no commitments.

Essentially, on any given day there is a less than 10% chance one of those 35 commits will pop.

Meaning there’s a 90% chance that, any given day, no one will commit.

So without factoring in the fact that there is a big event this weekend, which I wouldn’t know how to quantify in to probability, the most likely amount of commitments on any given day is 0, followed by 1, than 2, and so on.

Receiving 0 commitments on any given day is the most probable outcome, the probability drops significantly for 1, and becomes even more unlikely at 2 and 3 and 4.


Is that a satisfactory enough rough explanation?
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No, not at all. You just gave literally every day of the year an equal chance of resulting in a commitment. That makes ZERO logical sense. Dead periods... Major recruiting events... the week after the end of NSD... NSD and ESD... They are all equally likely to result in a commitment under your analysis. That's some incredibly flawed analysis.
 
No_Fly_Zone said:
No, not at all. You just gave literally every day of the year an equal chance of resulting in a commitment. That makes ZERO logical sense. Dead periods... Major recruiting events... the week after the end of NSD... NSD and ESD... They are all equally likely to result in a commitment under your analysis. That's some incredibly flawed analysis.
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It was intended to be a basic overview of how it is more likely to receive 0 commitments than 1... EVEN on these days with heightened probability (like Elite Prospect Day and the Spring Game).

If you’d like to assign a fictitious inflated number on these event days, fine, let’s evaluate that.

However, regardless of how you try to shake it, the probability will still be higher that we don’t get a commitment, this is likely true for just about any day of the year except for signing day.

Which even then, I’m probably betting on the 0 before I bet on any other specific one number.
 
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Jaxson Villain said:
It was intended to be a basic overview of how it is more likely to receive 0 commitments than 1... EVEN on these days with heightened probability (like Elite Prospect Day and the Spring Game).

If you’d like to assign a fictitious inflated number on these event days, fine, let’s evaluate that.

However, regardless of how you try to shake it, the probability will still be higher that we don’t get a commitment, this is likely true for just about any day of the year except for signing day.

Which even then, I’m probably betting on the 0 before I bet on any other specific one number.
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Oh, I'm not going to bother assigning fictitious numbers. After all, I wasn't the one claiming any event was the "most probable". Those were your words. I simply asked for your analysis to arrive at that claim. You've given me a flawed and, I suspect, disingenuous "basic overview" and an incomplete and conclusory post-hac analysis.

I will say it is ok to acknowledge that your warning to others about avoiding a "let down" was the path you'd clearly chosen to protect yourself from an emotional let down. Trust me, I've been a UM fan for several decades, so I understand the instinct to do so. That's just not the situation we presently find ourselves in. Adjust your analysis accordingly and enjoy that practical reality. You might be surprised at the results.
 
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I will be in Vegas starting sat but I aint touching this... I rather put my money on the line and leave my emotions off the table.
 
I'm more optimistic than all you negative nancy's. Even knowing a lot of kids are taking their announcements to December through February, I think we end up with 3-4 new 2023 commitments by 1 week from now. Which by the way would put us at 10+ verbals.

I authored a thread asking who thought we'd be at 15 by the end of August. I don't think anyone expected us to sniff 15. I may have to bump that if Legends delivers like I'm hoping it will. Fingers crossed.
 
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