This is by far the biggest question I have headed into the game. How good is their defense?
If you want to go glass half-full from their perspective, the defense is definitely good. Who cares about Long Island, but held USF to 16 offensive points, only gave up 10 first downs on the road to LSU, holding them to 13 offensive points. #28 in opp adjusted EPA per play. They are #1 in the country in rushing defense EPA. They have good athletes in the secondary, Sapp is an NFL player. Their defense has been much better than their offense, which obviously isn't saying much, but it's the reason they've even kept their 2 losses close.
But if you want to go glass half-empty, USF is a G5 team that we just absolutely worked, much worse than they did (USF averaged over 6 yards per play against Uif, only 4.88 against us). And LSU is absolutely pathetic on offense. They were well below average in every game this season, yes at Clemson in Week 1 is a good test, but even against Louisiana Tech they only scored 23 and were well below-average. They have been terrible against the pass (in the 70s in EPA, in the 90s in success rate allowed, they have 1 sack in 2 games and are now facing the best OL in America). So is their defense worth a ****? Or have they played a team who is far inferior athletically, and a badly struggling LSU? Our offense will be BY FAR the best one they've faced.
So for me, this is the matchup. Anything can happen in college football, but I just don't see that offense gutting us for 30 points. They scored 1 TD against USF, we scored 7. They scored 1 TD against LSU. They allowed like 10+ TFLs against Long Island Ice Tea. So, if they can't score 30, can our offense against this defense? I think we can. If we do, we win going away.
I'm very confident in our defense versus their offense not being a one-sided matchup that contributes to us losing.
I'm not fully confident our offense versus their defense will be a resounding win for us. That's why I'm most interested to see that part of the game. If we score 30, we win and we're dancing in the 4th quarter.